Couchonomics Crunch

US Equity Real Returns (1900–2024): A Century of Lessons in One Chart Sometimes a single chart can tell a deeper story than an entire book. This histogram of real (inflation-adjusted) returns for US equities from 1900 to 2024 is a powerful reminder of the resilience, risks, and rewards of long-term investing. A few reflections that stood out to me: ➕ The odds are in your favor: The majority of years delivered +10% to +30% real returns, underscoring why equities remain a compelling long-term asset class. ➕ Recent years have been remarkable: Post-GFC and post-COVID years like 2017–2021 and 2023–2024 have clustered at the top of the chart. But strong recent returns may also create recency bias. ➕ Pain is part of the process: Years like 2008 and 2022 show that deep negative returns do happen. Navigating these years requires conviction and a long view. ➕ Volatility isn’t new: The early 1900s and the 1930s were full of extremes. War, pandemics, depression — and yet, equities powered through. 🔹 The takeaway for me 🔹 🔸 TIME in the market beats TIMING the market (but most of us are fools and don’t listen to that advice). 🔸 Real wealth is built not by avoiding downturns, but by staying invested through them. Curious — what stands out to you most from this chart? #Investing #Equities #LongTermThinking #FinancialMarkets #BehavioralFinance #DataDrivenInsights #USMarkets

Banks aren’t overhauling everything, but they're making smart, targeted updates. This report from Tuum breaks down how small backend shifts are helping banks offer services that feel more modern and customer-focused. Here are my takeaways: 🔶 Mortgage support has been added to help banks better serve real housing needs. 🔶 Payment systems have been streamlined to reduce friction and make things clearer for end users. 🔶 The UI got a much-needed update to improve usability across the board. 🔶 Islamic financing options like Tawarruq and Murabaha are now part of the core platform. 🔶 Real examples from banks like LHV UK and Zenus show these changes already in motion. No sweeping declarations. Just small, smart moves that make banks feel less stuck in the past. #Banking #CustomerService #Finance #couchonomics #payments #fintech #embeddedfinance #digitalassets #futureofmoney #futureoffinance - ⁠- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 👍 Hit like ♻️ Share it with your network 📢 Drop a comment 🎙️ Check out my podcast Couchonomics with Arjun on YouTube 📖 Get my weekly newsletter on LinkedIn: Couchonomics Crunch 🕺💃 In the MENA region? Join our Fintech Tuesdays community! 🤝 Let's connect! - ⁠- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

AI 🤖 cannot be mastered but we can definitely get more familiar - here is a list of abbreviations and acronyms for the ever evolving word of #artificialintelligence #aiacrynoms #aiabbreviations #cheatsheet

Embedded Finance, Banking As A Service and a lot more. I am proud to share Arthur D. Little’s “Embedded Finance” Journal, a wide exploration of the evolving world of embedded finance and related topics. This journal 📓 includes several viewpoints and reports authored by several members of ADLs Financial Services Practice over the past couple of years. As we stand at the crossroads of finance and technology, the convergence of emerging regulations, innovative business models, and disruptive technologies is reshaping our industry profoundly - across the globe. I invite you to delve into the perspectives captured in this journal. Together, these contributions illuminate the pathways to a future where financial services are not an isolated function, but rather a vibrant, integral part of our emerging digital ecosystem — an ecosystem that is as dynamic and innovative as the world we live in. #embeddedfinance #baas #bankingasaplatform #invisiblefinance #disrutivetechnologies #openbanking #superapps #bnpl

USA 🇺🇸 government interest expense up 2x past 5 years…. brace for a bumpy ride ahead! 🔹 US Treasury’s annual interest expense has surged past $1.2 trillion as of 2024 which is twice the level of five years ago, indicating a rapid increase in debt servicing costs. 🔹 From 1988 to the mid-2000s, interest payments remained relatively stable, fluctuating around $0.4-$0.6 trillion. A slow increase occurred post-2015, but the steepest rise started around 2021-2022, aligning with rising interest rates and increased government borrowing 🔹 A dramatic spike is visible from 2022 onward, likely due to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes to combat inflation and a higher national debt burden, leading to increased debt servicing costs. 🔹 Higher debt costs may (will) limit government spending on critical areas like infrastructure, defense, and social programs 🔹 The #government may need to either increase taxes, cut spending, or issue more debt, which could have long-term economic consequences 🔹 As the U.S. government issues more debt to cover rising interest expenses, bond supply increases, pushing Treasury yields higher 🔹 Investors will demand higher returns to compensate for rising risks, making borrowing more expensive for both the government and corporations (banks are happier) 🔹 Persistent high yields on shorter-term Treasuries relative to longer-term bonds could keep the #yieldcurve inverted, a classic recession signal (Don’t say the “R” word) 🔹 Potential for a #selloff on equity, especially growth stocks, particularly tech companies, may suffer the most since their #valuations are based on future cash flows (Nasdaq is gonna get rockier) 🔹 Higher Treasury yields would make U.S. assets more attractive, leading to #capital inflows into the U.S., boosting the dollar (USD). This could hurt emerging markets that rely on #dollar denominated debt, making #repayments more expensive 🔹 Investors might pull money out of riskier #emergingmarkets in favor of higher-yielding, safer U.S. Treasuries. A stronger USD will reduce global liquidity, tightening financial conditions worldwide (When the US gets a cold, the world gets a sniffle 🤧) 🔹 If interest expenses keep rising, the Fed may have less room to cut rates even in a downturn. A prolonged period of high interest rates could increase the risk of a #recession ❓In the near term #bitcoin prices may suffer but in the mid term we could see a massive demand surge as a #hedge against government debt instability and fiat devaluation (both from retail and #institutional investors) but a lot of it will depend on whether it continues evolving into a digital gold-like #storeofvalue rather than a speculative asset

VCs Play a Different Game — Founders Need to Stop Playing Along Venture capital isn’t broken—but it’s deeply #misaligned for most founders. I have always held that fear , and that is now increasingly turning into a reality: a significant percentage of VCs (in the #Fintech space) have harmed the startups within their portfolios, driven by a lack of sectoral #competence and the sole purpose of maximizing their earnings. Some suggest, and I agree, that the VC sector is undergoing a #reset phase (following the euphoria that prevailed until the early 2020s), and that requires founders to undergo a period of reflection and change as well. The sooner founders stop optimizing for their VCs playbook and start focusing on their startups long-term success, the better off they will be. If you’re raising money, here’s what you need to remember: ✅ VCs want unicorns 🦄; you might just want a great business. Know the difference ✅ Valuations 💰 don’t matter. Liquidity does. Don’t fall for paper wealth. ✅ A massive TAM makes you look fundable, but a precise TAM makes you actually successful 🌟 ✅ Many investors care more about markups than outcomes. Pick your partners 🤝 wisely ✅ Early and growth investing are different sports. Work with specialists, not generalists ✅ The best investors think like founders, not bankers. Surround yourself with them. ✅ CVCs can be valuable but may have shifting strategic priorities ✅ Family offices offer an alternative to traditional VC, with longer time horizons and fewer strings attached. ✅ LPs demanding liquidity means many VCs are feeling the pressure, which could lead to further misaligned incentives for founders. Some VCs are complete gems 💎 , they know their game and also know how to strike a healthy balance between what they need to achieve and what the startups within their portfolio need most. Still, there are an equal number of VCs who fall short (some might even be successful VCs from a financial perspective, but that doesn't mean they are effectively nurturing the startup ecosystem); it's those VCs that the startup founders need to be wary off and not lose sight of the bigger picture. I appreciate it's easier said than done. Ultimately, founders build companies, not venture capitalists. Rahul Banerjee Milind Sanghavi Christian K. Saeed A. Assiri George Harrak Omair Ansari Kabeer Naqvi FCCA, BFP ACA Mo Aziz Gozde Demir Amith Rajan Elias Yazbeck Eyad Albayouk, CPA, CFA Paul Melotto Mehdi El Amine Fichtali Morrad Irsane Panagiotis Kriaris Vaanathi Mohanakrishnan Abdulla Almoayed #venturecapital #angelinvestors #corporateventurecapital #privateequity #privatecredit #debtfunding

Against the Odds: How American Express Thrives Amid Age Old Skepticism at 175 year of age 👏 AMEX as we all like to call it, has often faced scrutiny over its distinctive business model. Despite periodic questioning from so called payments futurists, banking analysts and investors, Amex has continually defied the odds—innovating, expanding strategically, and consistently posting impressive financial results. This resilience highlights how a focused approach on premium services and a loyal customer base can drive long-term success. Here are some interesting milestones till the turn of the century: 🔹 1850 – The Birth of American Express as an express mail business. 🔹 1891 – The Launch of Traveler’s Cheques - a groundbreaking innovation that offered international travelers a safe and convenient way to manage their funds, pioneering secure payment solutions worldwide. 🔹 1958 – The Introduction of the Charge Card. A product which set American Express on a path to becoming a household name in payments. 🔹1984 – The launch of the Platinum Card with their exclusive rewards, travel benefits, and personalized concierge services, the Platinum Card redefined luxury 🔹 1999 – The Unveiling of the Centurion Card (popularly known as the Black Card)—represented the pinnacle of exclusivity and is still the most conveted metal card in the wallet 💳 🔹 2001-2002 (not sure of the exact date) - My first AMEX Card (and I have been a customer for nearly 25 years 🤣🤣🤣). Very keen to see what happens with them over the next decade as Payments disruption goes into hyperdrive driven by multiple forces Happy Birthday 🥳 Graziela Martins Sabine Khalil Fares Usman Arif Mazin Khoury Fahad Al Guthami Emir Ardic Mohammad Nikkar, PhD Francesco Cotrone #amex #mastercard #visa #chargecard #payments

Jamie Dimon is without doubt one of the most impressive leaders of this current era. The post below is an interesting story and for me a great example of how not to take the easier option in life and believing in yourself. There is so much we can learn from people around us; we just need to make sure that we are willing to see, hear and learn with an open mind Thanks for the post Joseph Cass #jpmorgan #bankone #conviction #selfbelief #theharderpath

Only 12% of growing market businesses feel ready for AI adoption. Even though the technology race is not slowing down, most companies are still struggling with the fundamentals needed to keep going. This report from Economist Impact looks at some of the ways companies across seven emerging markets are preparing for AI adoption and the barriers they face. Here are my key takeaways: 🔶 Only 12% of businesses describe themselves as completely ready for AI, though just 7% admit they're not ready at all. 🔶 81% of businesses can't access the quality data AI needs to function properly. 🔶 Most companies are playing it safe. 71% are sticking with free AI tools instead of building custom solutions. 🔶 Only 14% of companies have created internal AI usage policies, despite 90% planning to hire tech leadership to oversee deployment. 🔶 Governments and businesses are teaming up to build better digital infrastructure and train workers. Seems like everyone's still figuring AI out as they go. #AIReadiness #EmergingMarkets #couchonomics #payments #fintech #embeddedfinance #digitalassets #futureofmoney #futureoffinance - ⁠- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 👍 Hit like ♻️ Share it with your network 📢 Drop a comment 🎙️ Check out my podcast Couchonomics with Arjun on YouTube 📖 Get my weekly newsletter on LinkedIn: Couchonomics Crunch 🕺💃 In the MENA region? Join our Fintech Tuesdays community! 🤝 Let's connect! - ⁠- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

‘Open Banking Change Curve for Incumbent Banks’ 🎢 Scribbled this on my note pad 📝 in the summer of 2021! Nearly 4 years later, I guess 😶🌫️ I got this wrong (at least for the time being; but then even a broken clock ⏰ shows the right time twice a day) #openbanking #openfinance #bankingasaservice #fintechrevolution #embeddedfinance #regulation #predictions