The latest publication on the Australia Climate released by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO and the terrible flooding events in Spain are linked by how quickly sea temperature is rising combined with the ability of the atmosphere to hold more water. Whilst not a record for any single day in Valencia, 455 mm of rain in 8 hours (see Figure) is historic and occurred in densely populated locations. These events have their lasting impact and is to be acknowledged for the community in Valenica. Yes, there would likely have been storm irrespective of a changed climate, but to write it off as a freak would be a mistake. These events provide the opportunity for learning; we can’t continue to be surprised.
The arrival of a flood wave at least 3 times greater than anything seen before (1), or major 36000ML dams filling from 16% to capacity in 5 to 6 hours (1) advance the need for a new bottom-up approach to extreme event exposure. The people of Fitzroy Crossing and Wujal Wujal in Australia would likely agree as we’ve seen comparable events challenge every fibre of our approach to extreme weather, flood risk, and community safety.
These events also add weight to the evidence that key assumptions underpinning flood risk assessment in Australian guidance have downside exposure, recognition of which is key to a national dialogue on risk and mitigation approach. Arguably, current assumptions have impacted the Australian Insurance industry to $1.2 billion in losses since 2011 (2) in events where these assumptions have been shown to be problematic. And that’s before we even start to assess broader community and societal consequences. The recent Senate inquiry adds further urgency to the issue, revealing a lack of expertise within the water sector to assess risks effectively. The sparse pickings at university level compared to other G20 countries compound this and indicates that any short-term lifting of skills is unlikely.
Our events database, perhaps unsurprisingly, shows that dams, rail, aviation, disaster, and insurance sectors are seeing the greatest impacts but also therefore have the greatest learnings. Scenario approaches are a key tool for these industries to provide a focus for sparse skills and resources. If you would like the data source for the events in Spain, please reach out directly.
The alarm bells should be ringing loud and clear in Parliament, Council chambers and Boardrooms of Australia today, if they weren’t already. The longest temperature record in the world, Central England Temperature, speaks for itself.
https://lnkd.in/g9UTeswz
(1) Data supplied from Spanish Govt. Informacion Hydrologica data - 29th October.
(2) ~15% of $8 billion (AUD) in loss value from ICA 2022 catastrophe data information from 8 events.
#hydrology
#climatechange
#damsafety
#infrastructure
#civilengineering
#insurance
