e61 Institute

Rising cost-of-living pressures continue to strain household budgets across Australia. To respond, policymakers require timely and reliable measures of financial hardship, but there are few available. New e61 research by Nick Garvin, Matthew Olckers and Hamish Thomas introduces a high-frequency indicator of financial stress derived from failed direct debit payments in bank transaction data. 👉 Failed payments have gradually increased since the phase-out of the large-scale income support measures introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic. 👉 The trend has been particularly pronounced among mortgage holders, coinciding with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate increases since mid-2022. However, payment failures remain persistently higher among renters. 👉 Survey data confirms the validity of the indicator, with individuals experiencing payment failures much more likely to report broader financial difficulties. This high frequency indicator could offer policymakers an early warning indicator of financial stress and inform targeted policy responses. Take a look at the Research Note for further insights. https://lnkd.in/gBz8wD8S

Australia’s welfare state is renowned for how well it has targeted people most in need. But there is a shift underway towards "in-kind" government spending, and some of this is not targeted at reducing poverty. In particular, Matt Nolan and Ewan Rankin highlight the trade-off in fiscal cost between an extension of untargeted electricity subsidies and the alternative option of a highly targeted $100 per fortnight increase in JobSeeker and related safety net payments.

Nominal spending fell by about 2% in the month to February 9, as the decline in post-Christmas spending slowed. This is consistent with previous years, with total spending being slightly lower than February 2024. The largest contributors to the decline included holiday, retail and dining out spending (9%, 3% and 2% respectively), though spending fell for most categories. illion Matthew Elias Nick Garvin Gianni La Cava Nicole Adams #spendtracker #e61institute https://lnkd.in/gP_c8a7V

Yesterday, we launched the new e61-UNSW Policy Research Partnership, which aims to contribute to the next stage of significant reform in Australia. Combining rigorous academic capability, newly available datasets and a strong public policy focus, the partnership will shed light on the critical challenges facing decision-makers and identify areas where policy needs to adapt. Take a look at our first report on the five economic themes that are likely to dominate the agenda in the next Parliament 👇 https://lnkd.in/eZG65ehp

The global landscape has changed since Australians last went to the polls. Our policymakers face an unenviable task as they confront complex challenges without ready-made, well-defined solutions. Richard Holden and Michael Brennan highlight the economic themes that will dominate the agenda in the next Parliament and identify where policy needs to adapt.  

With a Federal Budget and election looming, Australia faces its most significant policy challenges in nearly half a century. A new report from e61 and UNSW identifies five economic themes that will shape the nation's future:    🌏 As the post-WWII rules-based order declines, Australia must adapt by leveraging its strengths, pushing back against isolationism and building economic flexibility.   👥 Australia's high population growth model has provided economic dividends, but political pressures are mounting. How will Australia manage its demographic challenges and skill shortages if immigration moderates?   📈 Boosting productivity is more crucial than ever to navigate changing global landscapes and address fiscal challenges.   💰 Restoring fiscal sustainability can help Australia weather global uncertainty and meet emerging priorities.   🏠 Without tackling housing affordability, fiscal pressures, and productivity growth, we risk breaking the intergenerational bargain—younger Australians may not surpass the prosperity of previous generations.   Australia's future is at a crossroads—how we navigate these challenges will define the next era. The new e61-UNSW Policy Research Partnership aims to provide evidence to help policymakers navigate this increasingly complex and uncertain policy environment.    https://lnkd.in/eZG65ehp

Join us for an in-person seminar - March 26 - 6pm - Macquarie University City Campus Craig Emerson (Director Australian APEC Study Centre) and Michael Brennan (CEO e61 Institute) will be giving an address that touches on the most pressing issues in #economics today - #incomes, #equality, and #productivity - followed by light refreshments and networking.

🚨 🚨🚨We are thrilled to share that our recent event, "Unlocking the Economy's Full Potential," was a great success! With over 100 participants, it was fantastic to see presentations covering a wide range of topics—from fertility to childcare, from the motherhood penalty to career progression. A huge thank you to our incredible panelists (Richard Holden, Victoria Baranov, Rae Cooper, Aruna Sathanapally) and speakers for leading such engaging discussions on these important issues. Key takeaways from the event included: ⭐ Unlocking women's potential should not be a political issue; it is an economic one. ⭐ No single policy lever is likely to solve the issue. A comprehensive approach, addressing multiple drivers and aspects, is needed. ⭐ A collaborative effort—bringing together researchers, policymakers, and businesses—could be the key to unlocking women’s full potential. ⭐ Social norms can limit the effectiveness of policy interventions. We're proud to have hosted such a dynamic and collaborative environment, fostering discussions among thought leaders, policymakers, and researchers. Here's to continuing the conversation and unlocking even more potential for our economy! 💡 #e61Institute #Networking #EconomicPotential #WomenInEconomics #PolicyInnovation #FutureOfWork #EconomicGrowth #Collaboration

If you’re feeling cynical about civil disagreement these days, I can suggest one possible antidote. Yesterday my colleague Jack Buckley pitched a policy proposal at a deliberative democracy forum in North Sydney. The event was organised by independent MP Kylea Tink who randomly selected about 40 constituents to deliberate on five policy proposals to support small businesses. The participants’ task was to collectively choose one idea for Kylea to promote in federal parliament. e61’s proposal was to abolish payroll tax and replace it with a cashflow tax. Other proposals included establishing a government procurement quota for women-owned businesses and establishing a national independent government agency for SMEs. The literature suggests deliberative democracy forums are particularly beneficial for complex issues when there’s no ‘right answer’ or answers are values-driven. If designed well, the process can lead people to feel more satisfied with a policy outcome even if their own opinion didn’t change. It was amazing to see for myself how a diverse group of people could come together on a policy topic because they were given the time and resources to understand and discuss the issues. If you ever get the chance to experience a deliberative democracy forum I’d highly recommend it to lift your spirit. For e61 this was a great opportunity to share our research and empower the policy debate. Thanks to Kylea’s team for inviting us.

With the federal Treasury projecting a decade of budget deficits, the major parties are offering billions in new spending initiatives ahead of the next election—without proposing corresponding offsets or new revenue measures. Some economists are arguing that bracket creep will quietly fill the gap. Elyse Dwyer discusses how bracket creep impacts different income levels and whether indexation may preserve some principles of ‘tax fairness’ in Australia’s taxation system.