Transport Energy/Emission Research (TER)

Over the last years, TER has published a number of peer-reviewed and open access papers and reports that quantify the emission impacts due to the increasing sale of heavy SUVs and Utes in Australia since about 2015. We call this an increase in car obesity. Our current SUV/Ute sales numbers are high when compared internationally, undermining our efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the road transport sector. There are several reasons for this development and one of them relates to Australian taxation rules. An interesting study by The Australia Institute shines a light on this issue. https://lnkd.in/g35xGb5Y

It is clear that electrification of the on-road fleet is not going to be enough to meet net zero emissions in 2050 for the transport sector. So additional policy measures are required. One such option is mode shift, the shift of passenger and freight travel from high emission modes to lower emission modes. However, robust and up to date mode shift data for Australian transport is currently unavailable or limited. We used the Inland Rail project linking Brisbane and Melbourne as a case study to examine and compare - in detail - the emissions performance of land-based, sea and air transport. The research examined well-to-wheel/wake/wing emissions (from fuel/energy production, distribution and use) for both passenger and freight transport and for three years: 2019, 2030 and 2050. The Conversation did a short summary article on Part 1 of the study for land-based transport. https://lnkd.in/gKSxdvT2 

Although this may seem to be the case to many, hybrid vehicles are not a new technology. When working in Europe, I recall testing the first hybrid cars (Prius) in the early 2000. It is now 20 years later... TER's ongoing research shows that in terms of the sale of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs), Australia operates at a very different scale to the EU where almost 900,000 PHEVs were sold in 2022. In Australia, the numbers are relatively low (less than say 10,000) and popularity of PHEVs actually seems to have peaked in 2014 and since waned. In fact, the sales of battery electric vehicles in Australia dwarfs the sales of PHEVs. The sales of more conventional hybrids (not plug-ins) is currently slightly higher than battery electric vehicles, but more or less similar. So non-plug in hybrids have become more popular over the last five years or so, but the growth in battery electric vehicle sales is significantly stronger and may surpass hybrid sales in the coming years if this trend continues. Below is an interesting and relevant ABC article on this topic. https://lnkd.in/eavCZh_Q

A fair assessment of transport emissions performance must investigate the whole life cycle of both the vehicle and its energy or fuel process, often referred to as Life Cycle Assessment or LCA. We also need to account for the local situation. Directly applying LCA information from the EU or US to the Australian fleet is prone to erroneous conclusions. TER has led and published a number of comprehensive LCA studies specifically for Australian vehicles (passenger, freight). See the TER website for free downloads. Below is an interesting and relevant article on this topic from ABC reporter Jo Lauder. https://lnkd.in/gYNTS_vW

TER conducted a peer-reviewed, independent and impartial study into the real-world emission impacts of the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES). The main results were published today in the Conversation, including a link to the actual study. 1) The new standard could significantly reduce real-world emissions from light-duty vehicles (cars, SUVs, utes and vans), sold in Australia from July 1 2025. 2) The standard was weakened by the changes made following a second round of consultation with industry. 3) The standard’s performance could be undermined by a number of identified risks. 4) The effectiveness of the new standard in actually reducing on-road emissions for new vehicles remains to be seen. 5) Further improvements will make the standard more robust, better guarantee its effectiveness and prevent the internationally well-known pitfalls and loopholes in vehicle emission standards. https://lnkd.in/gtmRMTXE

While Australian vehicles still have to comply with Euro 5 emission standards (air pollution) - arguably the "lemon of vehicle emission standards" - the EU has published Euro 7 standards on 24 April 2024. (https://lnkd.in/eS57A79t) Australia will phase in Euro 6d standards in the period 2025-28, so we still have to wait quite a few years, and we are not yet talking about E7. https://lnkd.in/e53t6iQT

Decarbonising the maritime and aviation sectors is generally regarded as more challenging than land-based transport. When comparing the emissions performance of different transport sectors, it is at least as important to include all aspects of the vehicle and fuel lifecycle. This means including all "indirect emissions": the impacts due to manufacturing, fuel/energy production, operation, maintenance and disposal. Specific to air transport, there is the additional aspect of non-CO2 emission climate effects, which does not apply to land or sea transport. This refers to the formation of contrails (condensation trails), aircraft induced clouds (AIC) and ozone formation (secondary air pollutant). the magnitude of this additional effect is uncertain and depends on geographic location, altitude and time of year. On balance, however, it appears to significantly increase net radiative forcing (RF) of aircraft emissions. There is now an increasing focus on this issue (see link below). Excluding these impacts in the assessment of aircraft emissions creates unrealistic results. TER has just submitted a scientific paper using probabilistic modelling to compare the emissions performance of land, rail, sea and air transport in Australia. We explicitly included these additional emission impacts for the aviation sector and its uncertainty (more to follow on this in the future). https://lnkd.in/d-Uz9m8d

Electrification of the transport system to improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions (greenhouse gas and air pollutants) is firmly focused on land-based transport, as it is the largest (domestic) emissions source and it is generally recognized to be less challenging to decarbonise as the maritime and aviation sectors. It is therefore particularly interesting to see applications of pure battery technology in the shipping sector, especially when it concerns ocean-going vessels (OGVs) of significant size. Below is brief article on the allegedly world’s largest fully electric container ship, 120 meter long and a battery capacity of 50 MWh. https://lnkd.in/gHkpnFx7

TER is technology and fuel agnostic and our independent research over the last 5 years have confirmed - time and again - that battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in Australia have many benefits over their fossil-fuelled counterparts (internal combustion engine vehicles, ICEVs). For instance, in terms of lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions and local air pollutant (exhaust) emissions, including non-exhaust particle emissions due to brake wear, tyre wear, road wear and re-suspended road dust. Given the range of benefits, it is perhaps surprising to observe the sometimes hostile response to electric vehicles. Emotions are obviously a relevant factor, and not often discussed. See an interesting thought piece on this from the Driven below: the feeling that Australians may have that large diesel Utes are manly and how this relates to targeted marketing efforts by car companies. https://lnkd.in/gdW-jUfy

The EU has published its first report on real-world CO2 emissions of cars and vans using data from on-board fuel consumption monitoring devices (OBFCM). 1) The data from a sample of 600,000 petrol/diesel cars shows that actual on-road emissions are about 20% higher than the official WLTP test used for regulatory purposes. 2) Moreover - the greenhouse gas emissions issue with plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) is confirmed: the real-world CO2 emissions were on average 3.5 times higher than the laboratory values. The main reason: they are not being charged and driven in electric mode (CD) as frequently as assumed. This is relevant for Australia. Even when the Australian New Vehicle Emission Standard (NVES) is based on the WLTP and not the outdated NEDC test protocol – whilst a definite improvement – the EU OBFCM data suggests there is still a substantial fuel consumption and emissions gap, compared to on-road driving. This means that official WLTP based fuel consumption and CO2 figures for new vehicle sales in Australia, underpinning the NVES and national climate policies, will still significantly underestimate actual on-road fuel use and GHG emissions with about 20% or more, moving us away from achieving net zero emissions in 2050. OBFCM is not mentioned in the latest NVES consultation document, but it is clearly an essential component of an effective NVES. It will be required to track, monitor and report the effectiveness of the Australian NVES over the coming years and to adjust the regulation when required. https://lnkd.in/d3UBS4AY