Shirin Malekpour

Energy transitions are complex transformation processes, which involve different actors and unfold in a deeply uncertain future. These features make the long-term planning of energy transitions a wicked problem. Traditional strategic planning approaches fail to address this wickedness as they have a predictive, deterministic, and reactive standpoint to future issues. Modelling approaches that are used within conventional contexts are perceived to be inadequate too. They often simplify the… Show more

Energy transitions are complex transformation processes, which involve different actors and unfold in a deeply uncertain future. These features make the long-term planning of energy transitions a wicked problem. Traditional strategic planning approaches fail to address this wickedness as they have a predictive, deterministic, and reactive standpoint to future issues. Modelling approaches that are used within conventional contexts are perceived to be inadequate too. They often simplify the qualitative characteristics of transitions and cannot cope with deeply uncertain futures. More recently, new ways of qualitative participatory planning, as well as new approaches to quantitative modelling have emerged to enable policy analysis under deep uncertainty. We argue that qualitative participatory and quantitative modelling approaches can be complementary to each other in different ways. We operationalise their coupling in the form of a practical approach to be used for long-term planning of energy transitions. The suggested approach enables energy decision makers to test various policy interventions under numerous possibilities with a computational model and in a participatory process. We explain our approach with illustrative examples mostly from transitions in electricity sectors. However, our approach is applicable to different forms of energy transitions, and to the broader context of transition in any societal system, such as water and transportation. Show less

The vision of sustainable development remains difficult to realize in practice. Processes of strategic planning for public infrastructure represent a major challenge, as, in many cases, they return unsustainable investment solutions. Research offers certain planning methodologies to improve the prospects of sustainable investments. However, very little is understood about how planning processes are undertaken in practice, and what problems in the procedural aspects of planning – termed… Show more

The vision of sustainable development remains difficult to realize in practice. Processes of strategic planning for public infrastructure represent a major challenge, as, in many cases, they return unsustainable investment solutions. Research offers certain planning methodologies to improve the prospects of sustainable investments. However, very little is understood about how planning processes are undertaken in practice, and what problems in the procedural aspects of planning – termed “planning disruptions” in this paper – lead to deviations from the vision of sustainable development in infrastructure investments. This study scrutinizes the current scope of planning methodologies through the empirical case of a water supply augmentation in Melbourne, Australia. We derive a typology of planning disruptions which offers initial ingredients for a diagnostic tool to explore planning problems in the context of sustainable development. We also suggest making the current scope of planning methodologies more robust, by developing interventions that explicate and prepare for potential disruptions. Show less

Despite the emphasis on sustainable development in some of the contemporary planning and policy rhetoric, we face an implementation deficit in practice. The impediments to the widespread adoption and successful implementation of sustainable infrastructure in cities' critical sectors—such as water, energy or transport—are varied and complex. Although the scholarship has made some attempts to understand and categorize those impediments, not much has been said about how to identify them in a… Show more

Despite the emphasis on sustainable development in some of the contemporary planning and policy rhetoric, we face an implementation deficit in practice. The impediments to the widespread adoption and successful implementation of sustainable infrastructure in cities' critical sectors—such as water, energy or transport—are varied and complex. Although the scholarship has made some attempts to understand and categorize those impediments, not much has been said about how to identify them in a specific practical context. This study proposes a model for a diagnostic intervention in the ongoing process of strategic infrastructure planning, as a way of revealing context-specific impediments. The diagnostic intervention incorporates an explicit and reflexive consideration of short-term barriers and long-term disruptors into the strategic planning process, and assists with drafting the required coping strategies. The intervention has been tested in water infrastructure planning for one of the world's largest urban renewal areas in Melbourne, Australia. This trial application provided promising outcomes for addressing the implementation deficit of sustainable development: it created a platform for various stakeholder groups to engage in explicit discussions on their confronted problems, which often have trans-organizational causes and impacts; it enabled reflexivity within the ongoing planning process; and, it helped to consider a large portfolio of future uncertainties to provide an enabling condition for more robust decisions to be made. Moreover, the trialed intervention provided empirical evidence in support of the scholarly discourse which contends that sustainable infrastructure delivery is not only about the development of technical solutions, but is also about the development of processes and tools that support the widespread adoption and successful implementation of those solutions in the face of wide-ranging impediments. Show less

It is widely accepted that the traditional predict-then-act approach to long-term planning for delivery of public services, such as energy, water or transportation, cannot withstand uncertainties and complexities associated with issues such as population growth, changing demands and climate change. In this regard, various planning approaches have been put forward by the scholarship as alternatives to the conventional model. The planning practice, however, is often following the path-dependent… Show more

It is widely accepted that the traditional predict-then-act approach to long-term planning for delivery of public services, such as energy, water or transportation, cannot withstand uncertainties and complexities associated with issues such as population growth, changing demands and climate change. In this regard, various planning approaches have been put forward by the scholarship as alternatives to the conventional model. The planning practice, however, is often following the path-dependent legacy of conventional approaches. This study puts forward a planning intervention, which can be plugged into conventional planning processes, as a way of building capacity for alternative planning approaches to take off. The intervention aims at enabling exploratory thinking within the planning process. Exploratory thinking considers alternative perspectives to planning issues, different from the well-established frames of reference, to potentially reveal some of the blind-spots in the business-as-usual planning. Trial application of the proposed intervention within the process of planning for development of a flood management strategy in Melbourne, Australia, provides propitious indications of widening the scope of thinking among the participants. Based on the achieved insights, a methodology for carrying out the proposed intervention is presented. The methodology would be relevant, and potentially useful, for both planning scholars and practitioners. Show less

Urban infrastructure systems have long lifespans and influence the state of the environment for extended periods of time. Processes of strategic planning for urban infrastructure are thus instrumental to materializing environmental sustainability visions. Continued investments in infrastructure with adverse environmental impacts imply that sustainability priorities are not embedded in planning processes, as these processes tend to follow the path-dependent legacy of older planning paradigms… Show more

Urban infrastructure systems have long lifespans and influence the state of the environment for extended periods of time. Processes of strategic planning for urban infrastructure are thus instrumental to materializing environmental sustainability visions. Continued investments in infrastructure with adverse environmental impacts imply that sustainability priorities are not embedded in planning processes, as these processes tend to follow the path-dependent legacy of older planning paradigms. This study identifies the cognitive framings that underpin the evolution of strategic planning over the last century, to reveal the path-dependent attributes of strategic planning thinking that undermine alternative solutions. To do that, a scoping study of the literature on strategic planning of public infrastructure, from 1900 through 2013, was conducted. The findings reveal how the scholarly paradigms for infrastructure planning have transformed over time, from optimization to sustainability. While the planning practice in cities has often taken up the sustainability discourse in line with the scholarship, its actual attributes might lag behind. Knowledge about these attributes is scarce since the contemporary scholarship often contains aspirational proposals for change and little detail on how planning is undertaken in practice. It is likely that the incremental approach to infrastructure planning, which has been the dominant approach for decades, perpetuates a planning culture which contradicts the requirements for sustainability transitions, by limiting the scope of alternatives to optimizing the status quo instead of creating conditions for change. To develop effective planning interventions towards sustainability transitions in urban infrastructure systems, the paper calls for diagnostic tools that examine the realities of planning practice, and, operational frameworks for bridging historically-entrained modes of practice to sustainability aspirations. Show less

This paper introduces the probabilistic evaluation framework, to enable transparent and objective decision-making in technology selection for sanitation solutions in low-income countries. The probabilistic framework recognizes the often poor quality of the available data for evaluations. Within this framework, the evaluations will be done based on the probabilities that the expected outcomes occur in practice, considering the uncertainties in evaluation parameters. Consequently, the outcome of… Show more

This paper introduces the probabilistic evaluation framework, to enable transparent and objective decision-making in technology selection for sanitation solutions in low-income countries. The probabilistic framework recognizes the often poor quality of the available data for evaluations. Within this framework, the evaluations will be done based on the probabilities that the expected outcomes occur in practice, considering the uncertainties in evaluation parameters. Consequently, the outcome of evaluations will not be single point estimates; but there exists a range of possible outcomes. A first trial application of this framework for evaluation of sanitation options in the Nyalenda settlement in Kisumu, Kenya, showed how the range of values that an evaluation parameter may obtain in practice would influence the evaluation outcomes. In addition, as the probabilistic evaluation requires various site-specific data, sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the influence of each data set quality on the evaluation outcomes. Based on that, data collection activities could be (re)directed, in a trade-off between the required investments in those activities and the resolution of the decisions that are to be made. Show less

A number of cities worldwide, such as Cape Town, have recently experienced severe water stress situations. Many commentators have urged these cities to learn from the early 2000s Australian Millennium Drought and the country's drought response measures. Despite Australia's overall success, not all decisions made under crisis have been hailed by scholars, practitioners and the community alike.

To inform the global debate on water stress under climate change, crisis management and decision… Show more

A number of cities worldwide, such as Cape Town, have recently experienced severe water stress situations. Many commentators have urged these cities to learn from the early 2000s Australian Millennium Drought and the country's drought response measures. Despite Australia's overall success, not all decisions made under crisis have been hailed by scholars, practitioners and the community alike.

To inform the global debate on water stress under climate change, crisis management and decision making under uncertainty, this study used two specific water infrastructure projects in Australia—launched during the Millennium Drought and widely perceived as unsuccessful—as case studies to empirically investigate how decision making was undertaken in practice. These include the Western Corridor Recycled Water Scheme, in South East Queensland, and the Desalination Plant in Victoria. Both projects were large-scale water infrastructure projects, which raised concerns in the community, strongly questioning their pertinence.

The research used the knowledge of water professionals via interviews, as well as a desktop study of policy and planning documents, to draw a situational analysis of both projects. This analysis highlighted flaws in the decision-making process. These include fragmented institutional settings, strong political influence on the projects, a predictive approach to dealing with uncertainty, and unpreparedness for crisis. Show less

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) provide a bold aspiration for a sustainable, prosperous and equitable future. There is universal agreement that the goals cannot be achieved by 2030 on a business-as-usual trajectory, and that we need new agents of change, such as business, government and civil society. An array of tools and frameworks have recently been developed to support organisations in engaging with the SDGs. However, it is not understood if these tools/frameworks can enable… Show more

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) provide a bold aspiration for a sustainable, prosperous and equitable future. There is universal agreement that the goals cannot be achieved by 2030 on a business-as-usual trajectory, and that we need new agents of change, such as business, government and civil society. An array of tools and frameworks have recently been developed to support organisations in engaging with the SDGs. However, it is not understood if these tools/frameworks can enable transformative actions. This study used a scoping methodology to review the tools available to organisations for SDG action. These tools were then analysed against a generic model of the ‘strategic management’ process, in order to determine their usefulness in impacting organisational strategy. It was found that most of the tools are only applicable to ‘mapping’ and ‘reporting’ activities, which occur after strategies have been developed and even implemented. A small number of tools were found to align with the early stages of strategic management, that is, ‘problem definition’ and ‘goal setting’. No tools were identified which substantially engaged with actual strategy development, the stage which can shape transformative change. This gap indicates how future research could address organisational strategy, to foster as-of-yet unexplored SDG action. Show less