China Policy

Beijing’s latest Special Action Plan on Consumption—launched after the 2025 Government Work Report made consumption the year’s top priority. It offers some relief for consumers, but largely sticks to a familiar playbook. For years, experts have called for stronger demand-side measures, like direct cash stimuli. But policymakers appear more aligned with Say’s Law: supply creates its own demand. The latest measures reaffirm this stance, doubling down on the supply side—betting that ‘high-quality’ industries and services (EVs, AI, aged-care services, winter sports) will spur new consumption. Can Beijing credibly transition to a consumption-driven economy? Or will investment-led growth remain the default? For Xi Jinping, China’s long-term prosperity hinges on a new economic model—one where supply leads and sustains demand, ultimately propelling the country to global leadership. Can Beijing pull off this high-stakes economic trapeze act? See Substack for more analysis:  https://lnkd.in/gq5TPqKD 

Beijing frets job casualisation is behind protests and random attacks in late 2024. With 12 million delivery drivers facing high injury rates and limited protections, platforms like JD.com led the change pledging social security coverage. Meituan and Ele.me, soon followed suit. The 2025 Two Sessions designated gig workers as a ‘target group,’ introducing cross-regional pensions, expanded injury insurance, and portable benefits and less hukou restrictions. But there's a disconnect: research shows delivery riders prioritise income and autonomy over social security. Will they participate in schemes requiring higher contributions? As Beijing navigates economic slowdown and aging demographics, this balancing act between enforcing civil order and protecting workers reveals the growing pains of its evolving labor market—where college graduates increasingly fill ‘flexible’ roles once considered temporary survival jobs. CHINA POLICY: on the pulse | decoding China's emerging patterns Link: https://lnkd.in/g3UY2SW3 

More tech comes to farming Each year underscoring the symbolic status of the heartland, Beijing’s 2025 ‘No. 1 Document’ doubles down on food security with a push for ‘new productive forces’ in ag—biotech, AI, and automation. · GM crops – Soybeans & corn set for commercialisation · Smart ag – AI, data, and automation in farming · Ag machinery – More high-quality domestic equipment Soybean expansion continues, but past failures highlight risks: low oil content left surplus crops unsold. New high-yield varieties aim to fix this. Meanwhile, Beijing eyes an ag trade coordination mechanism, aligning domestic output with global trade strategy. More tech is coming—but will farmers see the benefits? #China #FoodSecurity #SmartAg See Substack for more analysis:  https://lnkd.in/gq5TPqKD

Interesting analysis from China Grain Net (中华粮网) tonight on the potential tariff impacts—and why these commodities have been singled out. As I said earlier, this is reinforcing a long-term strategy. The latest tariffs further cement Beijing’s shift away from U.S. farm imports rather than disrupt supply chains—with one key exception that must have alternative suppliers salivating. 📉 soybeans: had noted the 40% to 18% drop in U.S. market share (2016–2024), but more than that, the announcement coincides with Brazil’s 169-million-tonne harvest and peak exports (March–June), allowing a willing partner to step in and temper any impact 🌽 corn & wheat: the U.S. supplied just 15% of China’s corn imports last year, while Brazil now dominates with 47%. Wheat follows a similar pattern, with Australia, Canada, and France accounting for 75% of imports. Result? Tariffs to have minimal effect 🥩 pork & beef: U.S. imports make up a fraction of China’s total supply—just 0.12% for pork and 1.3% for beef. South America continues to lead the market, again limiting impact ⚠️ sorghum is the exception: the U.S. supplied 65.65% of China’s sorghum imports in 2024, with fewer alternatives. A 10% tariff will raise costs, disrupt U.S. exports, and intensify the pivot to Australia and Argentina. 🧭 big picture: these tariffs aren’t about short-term retaliation—they cement the PRC long-term shift away from U.S. agriculture. With diversified suppliers already in place, Beijing can impose tariffs without risking its own food security. Full text [in Chinese]: https://lnkd.in/g3TkJ9nN Timing interesting, too, as it comes hot on the heels of the No. 1 Doc introducing an 'agricultural trade and production coordination mechanism'—but that’s a topic for another day. #agriculture #agritrade #USChina

Tariff Day. We published our Month in Focus earlier today, predicting that retaliation would be swift. Beijing has already countered with tariffs effective 10 March 2025 15 percent tariff on - poultry (fresh, frozen, and processed) - wheat (including durum and mixed varieties) - corn (seed and non-seed varieties) - raw and combed cotton 10 percent tariff on - sorghum - soybeans (both non-GMO and other yellow soybeans) - pork (fresh, frozen, and processed cuts) - beef (whole carcasses, bone-in, and boneless cuts) - seafood - fruits vegetables dairy products As we thought, they target where it hurts in the US. And, what is more, the products are easily sourced elsewhere. Expect a flurry of new SPS protocols with substitute suppliers. 

february: Beijing sticks to its strengths - Month in Focus by China Policy explore more from ChinaPolicy Substack https://lnkd.in/gGVrYjqy

with all the talk of DeepSeek moments—latest wow is in biotech with PRC cancer treatments—we look at some of the backstory. Here’s our recent brief on the incremental transformation of PRC science institutions.

where’s science lab reform heading? https://lnkd.in/gvSBYX-X

We wrote last week on Beijing’s evolving diplospeak, and right on cue FM Wang Yi put it on display at the Munich Security Conference (14-16 February). Using now favoured PRC language, like ‘multipolarity’, ‘constructive engagement’ and ‘global governance’, Wang reframes terms common to the security community,: aligning them with Beijing’s strategic interests and vision as he challenges Western-centric global structures. Keep an eye out for: ‘middle ground’, ‘PRC-style modernisation’, ‘multilateralism’, ‘strategic autonomy’, ‘connectivity’, ‘high-quality development’, ‘rules-based international order’, ‘security dilemma’, ‘democratising international relations’…. CHINA POLICY: on the pulse | decoding China's emerging patterns   link to the CP takeaways from Global Times on Wang Yi’s captivating presence at Munich: https://lnkd.in/gjw4TP9z

Trump’s latest round of tariffs on PRC imports just kicked in, pushing average tariffs to 30%. While Beijing’s initial response was measured, MofCOM soon brought in targeted reciprocal measures. PRC analysts warn that ‘this time is different’ from the 2018 trade war - the US is cracking down harder on trade rerouting, and China has fewer buffers to absorb the shock. But here’s the bigger picture: while PRC-US trade has dropped since 2018, Beijing has pivoted dramatically - trade with Belt and Road countries has surged from 27% to 50%. These new US tariffs aren’t just about trade balances - they’re another move in a much bigger game of competing institutional orders and values. #TradeWar #USChinaRelations #GlobalTrade CHINA POLICY: on the pulse | decoding China's emerging patterns link: https://lnkd.in/g58Rc7t5