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Donald Trump announced tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. The justification for such measures seems more like a pretext than a real reason to start a trade war, but everyone got nervous. While analysts around the world fell into despair and predicted an escalation of trade wars, Mexico quietly agreed to Trump’s formal terms, and just a few hours later, Canada followed suit. In the morning, China announced counter-tariffs, though for now, they seem more like an official response rather than an attempt to trigger a global GDP collapse. Today marks the 18th day of Trump’s presidency, so this is just the beginning🍿 #macro #markets

Dear friends, Wishing you a joyful New Year and a Merry Christmas filled with happiness, success, and warmth 🎄🎄🎄 ⭐️ Thank you for being part of our journey this year – we look forward to an even brighter 2025 together! ⭐️

The media is abuzz with discussions about the case of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. The main topic? Using trusts for tax-efficient estate planning (https://lnkd.in/dG6GtDAq). 📰 The Case Overview Jensen Huang’s wealth has skyrocketed thanks to Nvidia’s success and the surge in the company’s stock value. Recently, it was revealed that Huang utilizes specific types of trusts under U.S. law to plan the transfer of assets to his heirs while managing tax obligations in the U.S., including income and estate taxes. 📌 Why is this being discussed? 👉 The Nvidia Phenomenon: Nvidia is a leader in GPU development and AI technologies. Its market capitalization recently exceeded $3 trillion, and Huang's fortune has grown exponentially. 👉 The Topic of Trusts: This case illustrates how top business leaders plan asset succession while considering potential tax liabilities. 🔍 Why does it matter? Jensen Huang’s story is not just news but also a prime example of how modern entrepreneurs leverage trust structures for long-term capital management. These tools continue to play a crucial role in family financial planning, as well as in preserving and growing the wealth of high-net-worth individuals.

Chinese Roller Coaster on Steroids 🇨🇳 Trading Chinese ADRs (American Depositary Receipts) on U.S. markets, which open after the main market closes, is quite an 'interesting' experience. On December 9, for the first time in 14 years, the leaders of the CCP Politburo, headed by Chairman Xi, announced a transition to a 'moderately loose' monetary policy. At the same time, the country’s leadership plans to activate aggressive fiscal policies by increasing borrowing and the budget deficit. This marks the first such shift since the global financial crisis of 2008–09. All signs indicate that Beijing has switched to turbo mode to address current economic challenges and is taking the tariff war with the U.S. seriously, anticipating Trump’s potential second term. 👉 While we are skeptical about a sharp recovery in the Chinese stock market without long-term positive changes in the economy, the impact of tariffs remains difficult to measure. However, we agree with global banks that it’s necessary to maintain a limited exposure to the Chinese stock market, tactically adjusting position weights. 📈 On December 9, ETFs tracking Chinese internet-sector stocks (KWEB US) opened +8.2%, large-cap Chinese company ETF (FXI US) +6.8%, and its 'triple-leveraged' counterpart (ETF YINN US) surged by +20% compared to the previous day. However, by December 10, FXI lost 4.3% of its value. 🥹 We doubted that the December 9 rally could last long, given the absence of a 'Santa Claus rally' concept in China. Therefore, we tactically closed half of our position in the Chinese ETF at local highs. ❗️ We firmly believe that Chinese stocks are always worth buying, but right now, deeper stock-by-stock analysis is critically important. The broader stock market is likely to remain volatile for another 12–18 months. #investments

Trump or China? A quarter of a century ago, China's share in global industrial production was 6%. Today, that figure exceeds 40%. The industrial policy project "Made in China 2025," unveiled over a decade ago, propelled the country to the forefront. In some sectors, China is already number one, while in others, it is rapidly closing the gap. This leadership is about production volume and encompasses high-tech industries supported by R&D, innovative solutions, and advanced materials. Outside the U.S., the world increasingly drives Chinese electric vehicles, scrolls through social media on Chinese smartphones, and powers homes with Chinese solar panels. This trend persists despite six years of American tariffs, export controls, and financial sanctions. Likely, China's technological advancement will neither be halted nor significantly slowed by U.S. restrictions. The risk for Washington is that policies aimed at curbing China could ultimately lead to U.S. isolation, harming American businesses and consumers. While Chinese companies flood the global market with electric vehicles and solar panels, their progress slows as they move up the technological ladder. In areas such as advanced semiconductors and chip-making equipment — the foundational level for future technologies — China's lag behind the U.S. is expected to persist for years. Trump has vowed to reignite the trade war with China, a hallmark of his first presidential term, threatening tariffs up to 60% — a level that could effectively end trade between the two nations. These tariffs helped reduce America's trade deficit with China on paper. However, much of this trade was redirected through Southeast Asia and Mexico, while the compelled search for new markets only strengthened China's manufacturing dominance in electric vehicles and other fields. BYD is a prime example. China's best-selling automaker anticipates that overseas deliveries will make up nearly half of its total sales in the future, indicating that it does not see U.S. tariffs — currently at 102.5% — as a significant barrier. The company already operates a factory in Thailand and is building similar facilities in Hungary, Brazil, and Turkey. If the new U.S. president truly aims to succeed in restraining China, they must rally half the world to their side. A Trump presidency could reshape the financial and economic landscape for years, making it far more challenging for global companies to operate simultaneously in the U.S. and China. #economy #US #China

Oil and Gold in the Middle East Conflict Today marks exactly one year since the conflict in Israel began, gradually escalating into a full-blown crisis for the entire Middle East region. The two main assets at the heart of this potential "trouble" are oil and gold. As for black gold, we don’t see any fundamental reasons for price increases today. However, for those interested, there’s an option to bet on a short-term shock in oil prices through options. Regarding traditional gold, on October 7, 2023, its price was $1,830 per troy ounce and has since gained 45%. Undoubtedly, this is mainly due to shifts in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and other central banks, with geopolitics playing a smaller role. The momentum from the past few weeks has provided us with a great opportunity to reduce our share in precious metals, as the current trends in the U.S. economy do not suggest the rate cuts priced in by the market. If de-escalation occurs, the geopolitical premium will disappear overnight, and gold prices could drop by 15-20%. As for overall portfolio risk, our risk-reducing position hasn't changed since the summer. Hedge when you can, not when you have to! #investments

Indonesia Looks Far Ahead Indonesia has issued its longest-ever 40-year bonds. It's an unusual event in the world of borrowing, although most countries have had long-term issuances for a while now, so in the world of professional bond investors, this is hardly sensational news. 🙄 However, every piece of news has two sides. Indonesia, a country with a population of 275 million, is moving towards developing its domestic borrowing market. Issuing long-term local sovereign bonds is a step towards supporting pension funds and long-term investors within the country. The fact that they successfully collected bids indirectly confirms the growth of the domestic pension market. Liquidity for these instruments will, of course, be very low. But almost inevitably, there will come a time when a global investor, enticed by the interest rate difference and the rupiah’s exchange rate, buys an expensive block. That investor will then either hold onto it until maturity or resell it to an uninformed retail buyer 🤔 #Indonesia #bonds

Nvidia: Investors' Expectations are Problems of investors themselves Over the past few years, we've grown accustomed to companies' financial reports having the market really hold its breath in anticipation. These companies then become the primary drivers of indices due to their weight, as well as investors' heightened expectations and concerns. Yesterday’s results from Nvidia once again proved to be one of those events. People are used to focusing on the results of Microsoft/Apple, but Nvidia's stock has skyrocketed over the past 18 months, catching many off guard. It’s now also a megacap, accounting for over 8% of the Nasdaq-100 index, surpassing even Microsoft. Revenue grew by 120% year-over-year, exceeding the forecasts of even the optimists at Goldman, not to mention the consensus estimate. EPS surged 153%, also above expectations. A particularly important detail is the massive free cash flow ($13.5 billion for the quarter, more than doubling y/y as well), which allows the company to generously return capital to shareholders – an additional $50 billion buyback was announced. Despite this, after the results were published, the stock traded within a wide 10% range in after-hours trading – from $115 to nearly $129. Well, Bloomberg had already warned us that the options market was pricing in a 10% move – and that's what we got. In early trading on August 29, the stock (and with it, the index) almost recouped the overnight losses. News agencies were quick to explain the drop by the company’s forecasts failing to meet the "lofty investor expectations", but I’d say that investors' expectations are investors' problems. I believe that the choppy after-hours trading is more logically explained by the actions of algos and options traders, rather than mythical "expectations". It has been yet another strong quarter for Nvidia, and it’s still unclear where this train will stop. We like to view the results of big companies through the lens of the insights they might provide for other businesses – competitors or those in related market sectors. So far, revenue trends across Nvidia's various segments indicate that the AI craze isn’t stopping, and there’s still reason to search for gems throughout the entire AI stack – from processors and networking to software (as the well-received results from Salesforce reminded us)🤞 #Nvidia #investment

Back to "Miss" Again 💍 Jennifer Lopez has decided to part ways with Ben Affleck and filed for divorce on August 20th. The date is symbolic, as it marks two years since they said “I do.” According to unofficial reports, the couple did not sign a prenuptial agreement. This means that all jointly acquired property during their brief marriage will be divided equally. Why should J.Lo have considered a prenuptial agreement? 👉Here are a few reasons: 📍Financial Protection: A prenuptial agreement could have safeguarded Jennifer’s financial interests in the event of a divorce, helping to avoid the division of income earned during the marriage, such as royalties she received. 📍Fair Distribution of Assets: A prenuptial agreement would have clearly outlined the terms of asset division, reducing stress and conflict between the spouses during the divorce process. 📍Peace of Mind: Having a prenuptial agreement in place would have allowed the couple to focus on love and supporting each other, rather than on financial and legal issues in case of disagreements. 🙃 📍Publicity: Given the constant media attention on Jen and Ben, a prenuptial agreement could have protected the couple from unnecessary public scrutiny and drama related to asset division. #prenup