AGILE

🌍 Strengthening Resilience Against HILP Events Through Innovation 🌍 The recent floods in Europe and Myanmar illustrate the urgency of preparing for High Impact Low Probability (HILP) events. In a recent TV news appearance in BBC News, our #AGILE_EU Project’s Scientific Lead Assoc. Prof. Gianluca Pescaroli from the UCL Department of Risk and Disaster Reduction (RDR) discussed how we are developing a tiered risk and resilience stress tests (STs) with DRM practitioners aimed at identifying vulnerabilities across various sectors and infrastructures. These tests aim to foresee such unpredictable events and offer solution-based approaches to enhance disaster preparedness, ultimately building societal resilience against future crises through evidence-based planning, capacity building, and disaster risk management. 🔗 Watch the full appearance here: https://lnkd.in/eDXzczRF #Resilience #DisasterPreparedness #ClimateChange #followthejellyfish #EuropeFloods #HILP #StressTesting Johanniter-Unfall-Hilfe e.V. | Ministerul Afacerilor Interne România | ENA - Agência de Energia e Ambiente da Arrábida | Pukhov Institute for Modelling in Energy Engineering of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine | Veiligheidsregio Rotterdam-Rijnmond | Gemeente Rotterdam | UCL Department of Risk and Disaster Reduction (RDR) | TU Delft | Technology, Policy and Management | Prepared International (PPI) | Factor Social | CMCC Foundation - Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici | ARTTIC Innovation | Tohoku University

🌍 Wrapping Up a Productive #AGILE_EU GA meeting in Setúbal! 🚀 As we conclude our second General Assembly, we’re reminded of the powerful words shared by our keynote speaker Patricia Gaspar: 📢 “Failing to correctly address these High Impact Low Probability events is failing to accomplish our true mission.” These words resonate deeply with our collective vision, especially relevant as hurricanes Helene and Milton devastated Florida, and storm Kirk hit the Portuguese coast, demonstrating the urgent need for preparedness and prevention for disasters beyond what we normally expect. Our discussions in Setúbal focused on how to prepare for and prevent these unpredictable events. Over the past three days, we addressed key challenges in risk management, including the development of the stress test framework, the role of serious games, and insights from the Asia Pacific case study. The work continues, and we look forward to turning these discussions into impactful actions. A special thanks to our wonderful hosts at ENA - Agência de Energia e Ambiente da Arrábida and all the participants. Stay tuned for more updates as we move towards a safer and a resilient future! #AGILE_GA2024 #DisasterPreparedness #Resilience #HILP #RiskReduction #followthejellyfish #StressTesting Johanniter-Unfall-Hilfe e.V. | Ministerul Afacerilor Interne România | ENA - Agência de Energia e Ambiente da Arrábida | Pukhov Institute for Modelling in Energy Engineering of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine | Veiligheidsregio Rotterdam-Rijnmond | Gemeente Rotterdam | UCL Department of Risk and Disaster Reduction (RDR) | TU Delft | Technology, Policy and Management | Prepared International (PPI) | Factor Social | CMCC Foundation - Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici | ARTTIC Innovation | Tohoku University

Day 2 of the #AGILE_GA2024 is taking place today in the beautiful historic Convento de Nossa Senhora da Arrabida. While a heavy strong storm is rumbling outside, the consortium is discussing the stress-test methodology and it's implementation plan. #followthejellyfish Johanniter-Unfall-Hilfe e.V. | Ministerul Afacerilor Interne România | ENA - Agência de Energia e Ambiente da Arrábida | Pukhov Institute for Modelling in Energy Engineering of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine | Veiligheidsregio Rotterdam-Rijnmond | Gemeente Rotterdam | UCL Department of Risk and Disaster Reduction (RDR) | Delft University of Technology | Prepared International (PPI) | Factor Social | CMCC Foundation - Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici | ARTTIC Innovation | Tohoku University

🚀 #AGILE_EU project's GA meeting Starts Today! 🌍 #AGILE_GA2024 From October 8th to 10th, 2024, our consortium is gathering in Setúbal, Portugal, for the 2nd GA meeting, hosted by our partner ENA - Agência de Energia e Ambiente da Arrábida. Over the next few days, we’ll engage in deep discussions on disaster preparedness, risk management and societal resilience to High Impact Low Probability (HILP) events. Key highlights of the agenda include: 🗝️ Keynote Speech - Patricia Gaspar, Secretary of State for Home Affairs, Portugal 📊 Stress Test Framework & Stakeholder Involvement - José Manuel Palma-Oliveira 🎮 Serious Games and Counterfactual Analysis for Stress Testing - Gianluca Pescaroli, Tina Comes, Silvia Torresan 🌏 Asia Pacific Case Study - Erin Hughey, PhD 📚 Evidence-Based Planning and Training Needs - Vlatko Jovanovski 📢 Impact and Dissemination Activities - Andreas Seipelt Expect continuous updates as we share insights and outcomes from this important meeting. Together, we are making strides toward a safer and more resilient future! 💡 #DisasterPreparedness #RiskManagement #StressTesting #Resilience #HILP #followthejellyfish Johanniter-Unfall-Hilfe e.V. | Ministerul Afacerilor Interne România | ENA - Agência de Energia e Ambiente da Arrábida | Pukhov Institute for Modelling in Energy Engineering of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine | Veiligheidsregio Rotterdam-Rijnmond | Gemeente Rotterdam | UCL Department of Risk and Disaster Reduction (RDR) | TU Delft | Technology, Policy and Management | Prepared International (PPI) | Factor Social | CMCC Foundation - Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici | ARTTIC Innovation | Tohoku University

🌍 Exploring The Messina Earthquake, 1908 in our #HILPSeries On December 28, 1908, at approximately 5:20 a.m., a catastrophic earthquake struck the city of Messina in Italy, with a magnitude estimated between 7.1 and 7.5. The quake caused massive destruction to Messina, Reggio di Calabria, and numerous coastal towns, leaving a staggering death toll of between 60,000 and 100,000 people, making it the deadliest earthquake in European history. The city’s infrastructure, largely built without earthquake-resistant measures, collapsed under the force of the tremor. Many buildings, including Messina's historic Norman cathedral, were reduced to rubble, cutting off all communication routes and leaving many residents trapped in their homes. To make matters worse, the earthquake triggered an undersea landslide that led to a devastating tsunami with waves reaching up to 12 meters high, which further added to the death toll by sweeping away those who had fled to the coastline. 🚨 Key Challenges for Emergency Management 🛑Safe Evacuation: Survivors fled to the coast, unaware of the tsunami risk. Pre-established response plans should guide people to safe zones during multi-hazard events. 🛑Building Vulnerability: Weak construction materials and lack of seismic design contributed to the devastation. Strengthening building codes and retrofitting are critical in earthquake-prone areas. 🛑Seismic Preparedness: The timing of the earthquake trapped many indoors. This underscores the importance of public awareness and preparedness in high-risk regions. #MessinaEarthquake #EmergencyManagement #followthejellyfish #RiskManagement #DisasterPreparedness Johanniter-Unfall-Hilfe e.V. | Ministerul Afacerilor Interne România | ENA - Agência de Energia e Ambiente da Arrábida | Pukhov Institute for Modelling in Energy Engineering of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine | Veiligheidsregio Rotterdam-Rijnmond | Gemeente Rotterdam | UCL Department of Risk and Disaster Reduction (RDR) | TU Delft | Technology, Policy and Management | Prepared International (PPI) | Factor Social | CMCC Foundation - Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici | ARTTIC Innovation | Tohoku University Photo Credit: Underwood & Underwood © 1906 No. 10495 - Messina - The once beautiful Water-front after the earthquake dett.jpg

🌍 #AGILE_EU Heads to Setúbal for its 2nd General Assembly! 🌊 We’re excited to announce that our second AGILE General Assembly - #AGILE_GA2024 will take place from 8th - 10th of October 2024, hosted by our esteemed partner ENA - Agência de Energia e Ambiente da Arrábida at the beautiful Casa da Baía de Setúbal, Portugal. This meeting will bring together our diverse consortium of universities, research centers, NGOs, first responders, and authorities to strengthen our shared vision for AGILE. We will address the main challenges faced by each work package, including refining the approach to stress testing and ensuring effective stakeholder engagement. Join us as we continue to work towards a safer, more resilient future! #DisasterPreparedness #HILP #Resilience #StressTesting #followthejellyfish Johanniter-Unfall-Hilfe e.V. | Ministerul Afacerilor Interne România | ENA - Agência de Energia e Ambiente da Arrábida | Pukhov Institute for Modelling in Energy Engineering of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine | Veiligheidsregio Rotterdam-Rijnmond | Gemeente Rotterdam | UCL Department of Risk and Disaster Reduction (RDR) | TU Delft | Technology, Policy and Management | Prepared International (PPI) | Factor Social | CMCC Foundation - Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici | ARTTIC Innovation | Tohoku University

🎉 Hooray, it’s #ARTTICProjectTuesday!   ➡ Today we like to introduce the #EU #HorizonEurope project AGILE.   👆 AGILE stands for “AGnostic #riskmanagement for high Impact Low probability Events”. Main objective of the project is to design, develop, and apply a comprehensive methodological framework and practical tools for understanding, anticipating, and managing #HighImpact #LowProbability events with a systemic #risk and #resilience perspective.   🌋 Area: #CivilSecurity for Society ⏳ Duration: up to 30/09/27 ✅ ARTTIC’s roles: #GrantScan & #Strategy, #ProposalDevelopment, #ProjectManagement, #Dissemination & #Communication, #StakeholderDialogue, #Exploitation & #Sustainability 🤝 Partners: 15 🌍 Countries: 10 👑 Coordinator: Johanniter-Unfall-Hilfe e.V. 💻 ARTTIC’s team involved: Andreas Seipelt, Manoj Kumar, Florian Fromm, Florian Riegel, Verena von Scharfenberg

🌍 ☄ Exploring High Impact Low Probability (HILP) Events: The Tunguska Meteor Event, 1908🔥 On June 30, 1908, the Tunguska region of Siberia experienced one of the most significant cosmic impact events in recorded history. Early that morning, eyewitnesses reported hearing "cannon shots" and seeing "columns of fire," followed by intense "thunderclaps." An area of over 2,000 square kilometers was devastated — trees were debranched, felled, or had their tops sheared off, with reports of forest fires for miles around. The explosion, believed to have been caused by a meteoroid or comet disintegrating in the atmosphere, produced an atmospheric shockwave that flattened the forest in an area about 50 km in diameter. The event also led to "bright nights" across Europe and Western Asia, where the sky remained lit for days afterward, a phenomenon only previously observed after the Krakatoa eruption in 1883. While the remoteness of the Tunguska site limited its impact on human life and infrastructure, the sheer scale of the destruction still poses a sobering reminder of the risk posed by space impacts. 🚨 Key Challenges for Emergency Management The Tunguska Event serves as a stark example of the catastrophic potential of low-probability, high-impact events. Had this explosion occurred over a populated area, the destruction would have been vast, with significant loss of life and severe infrastructure damage. Such events highlight the need for robust emergency management strategies: 🛑The importance of global monitoring and early warning systems for cosmic threats. 🛑Preparedness for unpredictable environmental changes, such as forest fires and atmospheric disturbances. 🛑Investment in disaster resilience to reduce the impact of sudden, large-scale events. Though the Tunguska Event happened over a century ago, its lessons remain highly relevant today. In an increasingly interconnected world, the potential consequences of a similar event on global populations, infrastructure, and economies cannot be ignored. #HILPSeries #EmergencyManagement #TunguskaEvent #followthejellyfish #DisasterPreparedness #HILP Johanniter-Unfall-Hilfe e.V. | Ministerul Afacerilor Interne România | ENA - Agência de Energia e Ambiente da Arrábida | Pukhov Institute for Modelling in Energy Engineering of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine | Veiligheidsregio Rotterdam-Rijnmond | Gemeente Rotterdam | UCL Department of Risk and Disaster Reduction (RDR) | TU Delft | Technology, Policy and Management | Prepared International (PPI) | Factor Social | CMCC Foundation - Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici | ARTTIC Innovation | Tohoku University Photo Credit: From Wikipedia - Leonid Kulik, the expedition to the Tunguska event - Vokrug Sveta, 1931

🌍🎉 Exciting News from AGILE! 🎉🌍 We are thrilled to announce that our project partners, José Manuel Palma-Oliveira and Dalila Antunes, from Factor Social represented #AGILE_EU at the 5th Annual Meeting of the Society for Risk Analysis-Europe Iberian Chapter, titled "Navigating Future Risk Challenges: New Approaches to Risk Analysis and Management." José and Dalila showcased our innovative approach towards agnostic and system-focused resilience assessments with a dedicated poster detailing our framework for Resilience Stress Testing in AGILE. 🚀💡 #RiskAnalysis #Resilience #RiskManagement #StressTests #followthejellyfish #HILP Johanniter-Unfall-Hilfe e.V. | Ministerul Afacerilor Interne România | ENA - Agência de Energia e Ambiente da Arrábida | Pukhov Institute for Modelling in Energy Engineering of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine | Veiligheidsregio Rotterdam-Rijnmond | Gemeente Rotterdam | UCL Department of Risk and Disaster Reduction (RDR) | TU Delft | Technology, Policy and Management | Prepared International (PPI) | Factor Social | CMCC Foundation - Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici | ARTTIC Innovation | Tohoku University

#Resilience is about #connections - across systems, sectors and countries. Just back in Europe from a buzzing #ICRS2024 with many new ideas. Some key insights. 🌿 #Sustainability and #resilience are deeply linked. If it is about securing water supply or ensuring energy in an extremely densely populated country like Singapore - we need to connect short term reliability and responsiveness with long-term transitions. #SystemsThinking is very much needed. 🌊 There are many resilience #metrics, frameworks, models. While I was happy that there seems to be consensus on the underlying definitions, #validation (esp on the long term) remains a challenge. And there remains a challenge in developing #generalised approaches versus the need for #contextualisation. 💻 In an increasingly complex and connected world - as seen by the many ships harboring in Singapore - #AI and #technology are central to #analysing, understanding and improving resilience. Yet, there needs to be a discussion on how, when, and under which circumstances we use monitoring, sensing and resource-intense AI technology. Here, there is a clear role for a European and #human-centred perspective. 🤝 #community is key - like in the food courts of Singapore, which are an amazing melting pot. Thanks again to the fantastic Singapore-ETH Centre team for hosting us, and once more kudos for the incredible 4TU Centre for Resilience Engineering and TU Delft | Technology, Policy and Management team for the impressive talks and workshops. AGILE #howtocatchajellyfish Pandemic and Disaster Preparedness Center (PDPC) TU Delft | Global Initiative