Vous envisagez une carrière dans le domaine des prévisions économiques. Quelles sont les choses les plus importantes à savoir ?

Being able to help people and companies in the process of measuring the relationship between macroeconomic variables, microeconomic variables of specific sectors and the data produced by the person or company that is a client of the service, is what differentiates a great economic analyst from someone who just read the newspaper headlines and as a reply.

Economic forecasters analyze historical data, current economic indicators, and trends to predict future economic conditions and trends. They use statistical models, econometric techniques, and qualitative analysis to make projections about key economic variables such as GDP growth, inflation rates, unemployment rates, and interest rates. Economic forecasters work in various sectors, including government agencies, financial institutions, consulting firms, and research organizations, providing insights and guidance to policymakers, businesses, investors, and the general public.

Familiarize yourself with various forecasting methods and models commonly used in economic analysis, such as time series analysis, regression analysis, and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Understand the strengths, limitations, and assumptions of different forecasting approaches.

This involves not only a solid understanding of fundamental economic principles, but also robust quantitative skills, including statistical analysis, economic modelling and mastery of relevant software tools such as Excel, Python or R. In addition, effective communication skills are essential to translate complex analyses into understandable insights for different audiences. In my experience, investing in improving these skills, through courses, training and regular practice, was key to advancing in my career as an economic analyst and achieving success in economic forecasting.

To succeed as an economic forecaster, you need a strong foundation in economics, including knowledge of macroeconomic theory, econometrics, and statistical analysis. A graduate degree in economics or a related field is often required for entry-level positions, although some employers may accept candidates with a bachelor's degree and relevant work experience. Additionally, proficiency in statistical software such as R or Python, as well as strong quantitative and analytical skills, are essential for conducting economic forecasting research. Excellent communication skills are also important for presenting findings and recommendations to stakeholders effectively.

The benefits include the ability to make informed decisions, plan financially, identify business opportunities and minimise financial risks. However, challenges are faced, such as the uncertainty inherent in the economy, the complexity of economic models, the risk of bias and the pressure for accurate results. In my experience, dealing with the complexity of economic models and constantly adjusting forecasts based on new data and economic events has been crucial. For example, when forecasting the performance of the property market, it was necessary to consider a variety of factors, such as interest rates, global economic conditions and changes in legislation, in order to provide accurate forecasts to investors.

The benefits of economic forecasting include providing valuable insights for decision-making, helping businesses and policymakers anticipate and prepare for future economic conditions, and contributing to economic stability and growth. However, economic forecasting is inherently uncertain and subject to errors and limitations. Forecasters must contend with data limitations, model uncertainty, unforeseen events, and the complexity of economic systems, which can make accurate predictions challenging. Additionally, forecast accuracy can vary depending on the forecasting horizon, the quality of data available, and the accuracy of underlying assumptions.

Continuously expanding your knowledge of economic theory, statistical methods, and forecasting techniques through coursework, workshops, and self-study can enhance your forecasting abilities. Hands-on experience working with real-world data and conducting economic research can also sharpen your analytical skills and intuition. Collaborating with other economists and participating in forecasting competitions or exercises can provide valuable feedback and insights for improving your forecasting models and techniques. Additionally, staying informed about current economic developments, trends, and policy changes is essential for staying ahead of the curve in economic forecasting.

Application of big data analytics, machine learning and behavioral economics are playing a major part in policy forecasting through real time data. Scenarios to be considered in projects have become more precise due real time data and we'll continue to see that involvement due to AI influences to research firms.