Altiplano Open Research

Dear followers, The destiny of Altiplano Open Research is about to evolve, and consequently, so is ours. We have joined a much larger, widely known, and recognised project we are very excited about. We have experienced an extraordinary adventure that has greatly enriched us with experiences, knowledge, and human connections. We fought hard. Altiplano has demanded a lot of physical and mental energy from us, but it has also given us so much in return. We take this opportunity to thank all those who have trusted us, those who have encouraged us, supported and accompanied us in a beautiful entrepreneurial adventure. We would like to make special mention of all the analysts/economists/experts who have shown incredible commitment to providing us with their top-quality high-level content. We wish you all the best in your projects. Marchel Alexandrovich Philippe Annamayer Artus Q Patrick Neil Atkinson Skander Bellil jean baptiste bellon Laurent Berrebi Sophie Biro Antoine Boivin-Champeaux Fabio Bottacci Carlos Daurignac vincent donnen, CIIA Alexis Dwek Maxence le Gouvello du Timat Joe Lowry Laurent Maurel John M. & the Cambridge BioNexus team Cedric Merien Simon Michaux David Owen François Pommier Suarez Gregory RAMIREZ Laurent Runacher Thierry Serero Ian Whittaker Richard Windsor We would also like to thank Zenon Research for the quality of their research in Climate Technologies and the very fruitful exchanges we had with the whole team. This is the last day of our acquaintance. I will meet you later in somebody's office. We will miss you all. So long. Altiplano Open Research.

Dear followers, Marex and Altiplano Open Research would like to sincerely thank everyone who honoured our conference with their presence on Friday, December 13. This conference was structured around three parts: 1. IA Generative Richard Windsor delivered a brilliant and impactful presentation on artificial intelligence, explaining what it is—and what it is not—while placing this technology in its historical context. He also detailed concrete use cases for generative AI. 2. Debate: Technology and Productivity We then moved on to a fascinating debate between Patrick Artus and Laurent Berrebi, which began with a fundamental question: Should we trust hyperbolic predictions? To encourage Patrick and Laurent to address this question, we presented them with contrasting perspectives from Eric Brynjolfsson and Daron Acemoglu. Another key question emerged: What does Hulten’s theory say about TFP? This inquiry allowed for a clear distinction between basic productivity and total factor productivity, setting the stage for a debate that was as rich and nuanced as it was challenging to summarise in just a few lines. 3. Final Observations Richard, Patrick, and Laurent then shared their final observations, aimed at distilling the key takeaways from the conference. They also opened new avenues for reflection and provided space for a Q&A session, although many questions were raised throughout the event. Altiplano Open Research and Marex extend their heartfelt thanks to Richard, Patrick, and Laurent for their commitment and the exceptional quality of their presentations and the debate. Thanks to herve alfon, Alexis Bert, CFA and Guillaume Pradel for their assistance in organising and carrying out this successful event. We remain available to discuss these topics with you. #artificialintelligence #macroeconomics #techinvesting #assetallocation

This week on the Altiplano, Laurent Berrebi published a new version of his Weekly Balloon Pickings to mention a new acceleration in the US, a dynamic third quarter in the eurozone, the unemployment rate in Italy and the problem of tax revenues in France. He also focused on the eurozone and underestimated growth in 2025. Marchel Alexandrovich reacted to the ECB's 25 basis point rate cut and the "normalisation" of inflation, according to the ECB. David Owen has published an excellent note on the idea of peak oil production that only comes to evoke the link between fossil-producing countries and rising temperatures. Gregory RAMIREZ published a note to discuss investor fatigue in the listed IT services and software sector. A "public to private" movement seems to be emerging. Richard Windsor has published on Google, autonomous driving, OpenAI, quantum computing and the fight between Apple and Qualcomm. On Google, he analyses how the group seeks to protect its dominance over Android and Chromebooks. GM's decision to withdraw from robotaxis highlights the economic challenges of this industry. On December 5, OpenAI kicked off 12 days of launches and announcements with Sora as its main commercialisation. Richard takes the opportunity to share his views on the industry. Despite the growing enthusiasm for quantum computing and its promises of near-infinite computing power, silicon is expected to remain dominant well beyond 2030. The market is obsessed with Qualcomm's Apple business, even if it is becoming less and less significant. Ian Whittaker published two interesting notes following two corporate announcements on the agency sector (a possible merger between Omnicom and IPG) and the SVOD sector (a spin-off of WBD). In both cases, the implications for both sectors as a whole could be significant with consolidation movements. Finally, François Pommier Suarez analysed the agreement between Stellantis and CATL around LFP technology. #investmentresearch #technology #artificialintelligence #climatechange

This week on the Altiplano, Laurent Berrebi published a new version of his Weekly Balloon Pickings to talk about a good end to the economic year in the USA, the acceleration of the money supply in the eurozone and the weak economy in France. Laurent also focused on the recovery of consumption in the eurozone. David Owen and Marchel Alexandrovich have published two interesting notes on central bank policies. The first concerns France, its economic and political situation, and the possible response of the ECB. The second raises the question of how the BoE should react to Ben Bernanke's review. It was clear from the recent BoE Watchers conference that this response is still a work in progress. Skander Bellil has published a new edition of our monthly publication series to continue to explore and exploit the relevance of our proprietary model based on the Kalman filter which we have applied to the banking sector to break down specific and systematic risks. The implications of this study are profound in terms of portfolio construction. This is not only for the banking sector but for all sectors where systematic risk plays a central role. Richard Windsor published a note following the annual AWS Developer Conference. The group has announced the launch of foundation models exclusively available on Amazon Bedrock, the equivalent of Nemo (Nvidia) and the AI studios of Microsoft and Google. He has also published on Intel, a company on which he remains cautious. One of the problems was its foundry activity. The real problem at the heart of the problems is cultural. Finally, he also published on China-US relations, the impact that the outgoing US administration will have with a new significant tightening of export rules and China's response. #macroeconomics #artificialintelligence #techinvestment

We had the honour of being hosted by the Argentine Embassy in Paris to discuss the major issues surrounding the electrification of economies, as well as the value chains extending from mining to battery production and recycling. We also addressed questions of sovereignty and geopolitics, as well as technological and regulatory challenges, particularly those related to mining and batteries. Nearly three years ago, we introduced the concept of "The Big Lithium is Underway," drawing a parallel with "The Big Oil" and the early major corporations that emerged at the end of the 19th century. The ecosystems surrounding lithium are likely to evolve significantly, paving the way for new, innovative players. Lithium is an excellent example of how traditional industries can be disrupted by new entrants and of an inevitable process of vertical integration. All indications suggest that "The Big Lithium" will include companies we had barely heard of twenty years ago—Tesla, CATL, BYD, Albemarle, SQM, and others along the value chain—while also attracting established players eager to join, such as Exxon, Equinor, Eramet, Imerys, and Rio Tinto. Why Argentina? Because the country could soon become the world’s top producer of lithium (the potential in copper is huge too). The recent operations by Rio Tinto and Eramet are intriguing signs of this potential. In September, the United States and Argentina signed a MoU aimed at enhancing cooperation and advancing the development of critical mineral resources, thereby allowing Argentine minerals to qualify for tax credits under the U.S. IRA. Moreover, the recent “Régimen de Incentivo para Grandes Inversiones (RIGI)” legislation has revitalised mining interests, with some observers describing it as a potential game changer. Altiplano Open Research warmly thanks Victoria Stöger, Sylvie Pillon Espinola, Pablo Alejandro Ciotti, and Andrés VARGAS for their support and invaluable assistance. Altiplano Open Research also thanks its speakers for their commitment and the high quality of their contributions: vincent donnen, CIIA, Cedric Merien, Laurent Maurel, and François Pommier Suarez. A big thank to Skander Bellil for the quality of the edition of the presentation and for challenging us to be the most designed, accurate and efficient. #lithium #electricvehicles #criticalminerals #batteryindustry #argentina

This week on the Altiplano, Laurent Berrebi published a new version of his Weekly Balloon Pickings to discuss the good trends in the US, the ECB in the face of inflation expectations, the weakening of France and Germany, Japan and exports, the UK and inflation. He focused on the United States, deglobalisation and the enrichment of the middle class. Artus Q Patrick dedicated his 28th Q&A session to us. After a brief introduction to discuss the topics discussed and their contexts, we present 7 questions, 7 answers and 7 (or a little more) graphs. Marchel Alexandrovich shared his views with us following Philip Lane's speech at the Bank of England Watchers Conference. jean baptiste bellon and Maxence le Gouvello du Timat have published their two usual quarterly notes on European banks. The sector's consolidated approach also allows economists, strategists and beneficiaries to have an effective view of the economy and financial systems. A Closer Look at the Numbers (quantitative version) and What the Banks Are Saying (qualitative version) are two effective and complementary approaches. Richard Windsor has published four very interesting notes. Amazon has increased its investment in Anthropic. Richard uses this announcement to evoke Amazon's need for vertical integration, which should eventually make Anthropic its AI department. Richard also shared with us his views on Huawei's latest announcement, which confirms China's rise to power against the United States in the technological race. Richard explained to us why the investment case for Samsung Electronics is essentially based on the turnaround of its semiconductor business. He shared his views on Pony AI following its IPO and what valuation entails. Ian Whittaker has given his effective views on ITV in the run-up to a possible break-up. Finally, François Pommier Suarez, starting from Northvolt's disappointments and the EU's requirements, gave a detailed update on the battery and electric vehicle ecosystem and in particular vertical integration strategies. Many of you have noticed that we like to slip song titles into some of our note titles. Here’s our little playlist for the weekend: A Matter of Time (https://lnkd.in/eybf-2qM) Living on the Ceiling (https://lnkd.in/e4BdNKkP) Supremacy (https://lnkd.in/eszYufvv) #macroeconomics #electricvehicles #banks #techinvestment

This week on the Altiplano, Laurent Berrebi published a new version of his Weekly Balloon Pickings to discuss inflation in the US, employment and productivity in the eurozone, consumption in China, and growth in the UK. He focused on the impact of Donald Trump's election on the rate-cut cycle. David Owen has published the first note in a series on global temperature anomalies. He also spoke about the new British government that is trying to tackle the low rate of productivity growth. Richard Windsor issued a note to react to the disappointing results of PDD and Baidu and the deep problems afflicting the tech ecosystem in China. He has also published on Nvidia, which continues to offer very strong visibility despite the first signs of development towards foundation models. On Qualcomm, Richard offered us an excellent investment case with all the classic ingredients, but with his alternative style, necessary to think about the key factors of success and growth of the group. He has also published insightful comments on Google's case with the US Department of Justice. Finally, on Alibaba, the publication of Alibaba's results for the 2nd quarter of 2025 is a good indicator of the political, geopolitical and economic situation in China. Sophie Biro-Rouillon took stock of a bottom-up approach and the valuation of the securities that make up our Blue Economy universe. It has built a universe of stocks exposed to the oceans and offers overall valuations as well as an analysis of earnings growth by sector and industry. Ian Whittaker used two interviews to share his views on the SVOD industry, its consolidation and the development of advertising. #energytransition #techinvestment #climatechange #macroeconomicresearch

Following our recent publication (https://lnkd.in/eRcN2DEi) on the concept of the "Purple Transition", Simon Michaux granted us an interview to discuss several strategic topics around his vision. In addition to the more detailed written version, we are pleased to share a short video structured around five key questions/themes: 1. Introduction to the Purple Transition. 2. The Green Transition. 3. The Concept of the Purple Transition. 4. Challenges and Considerations in Implementation. 5. Comparing Green and Purple Transitions (Current Status and Future Steps). The raw materials sector must be reimagined with the central idea of balancing resource economies. The concept encompasses four core technologies (liquid fuel fission, Th MSR, iron powder combustion, ammonia-fuelled ICE, and non-lithium battery chemistries), three of which are already in commercial development. #energytransition #circularity #investmentresearch

This week on the Altiplano, Neil Atkinson sat down to discuss several strategic topics in oil markets. We decided to derive two products, a written format and a video format. Laurent Berrebi has published a new version of his Weekly Balloon Pickings to discuss domestic dynamics in the US, and China at the heart of deflation and consumption in the eurozone. He also focused on the theme of the deindustrialisation of the eurozone and France in particular. In a new publication, Marchel Alexandrovich investigated whether bottom-up company data on "Brown Zombies" indicates a similar result to the one his research on Europe indicated earlier this year. Richard Windsor has published several notes on AI, particularly on the subject of 'scaling laws' which have so far underpinned the rise of AI via LLMs. He has also published on Amazon's AI strategy and the rivalry with Nvidia. He also published on AI use cases where the real opportunity is to run inference at the edge of the network rather than in the cloud. Qualcomm stands out as a possible winner. It seems that Apple is looking for growth drivers through products that competitors have already invested heavily in with the little success we know. Richard gives us his views on this subject. Ian Whittaker opens up several themes on technological ecosystems whose effects could be amplified in the event of total control by the US Congress. He also published on RTL Group following a disappointing publication of results and downwardly revised objectives. Simon Michaux believes that the commodities sector must be reinvented with the economy of resource balance as its central idea. The concept encompasses four core technologies (liquid fuel fission, Th MSR, Fe powder combustion, ammonia-powered ICE, and non-lithium battery chemistries) of which three are already in commercial development. Many of you have noticed that we like to slip song titles into some of our note titles. Here’s our little playlist for the weekend: A Matter of Time (https://lnkd.in/eRzBTaHF) Temptation (https://lnkd.in/ebfCm7sJ) Oscillating Wildly (https://lnkd.in/eaWUBUUH) Message in a Bottle (neck) (https://lnkd.in/e8kT3auH) #energytransition #Techinvestment #climatechange #macroeconomicresearch

This week on the Altiplano, John McCarthy gave us a fascinating interview based on his note on lung cancer. Responsible for more deaths each year than any other cancer, it presents a myriad of difficulties associated with its diagnosis and treatment. Laurent Berrebi published his very usual Balloon Pickings to discuss economic trends in the US and growth in the eurozone. He also focused on the ECB's monetary policy, which may raise questions. David Owen recently delved deeper and examined the natural disaster model in the United States. In a new note, he does the same for Europe using the latest data for 2023. Skander Bellil has published the 5th edition of the monthly notes series to continue to explore and exploit the relevance of our proprietary model based on the Kalman filter and which we have applied to the banking sector to break down specific and systematic risks. Laurent Runacher has published a new note on Imerys that confirms what he anticipated on talc. The outcome of the Delaware court hearings regarding Talc took place on November 4, 2024, the result is positive. Richard Windsor reacted to the US elections. The outgoing administration appears to be in a hurry to make deals with semiconductor companies, fearing that the Chips and Science Act of 2022 will be repealed by the new administration. Richard believes that a change of administration is likely to generate more noise than reality. He also analysed the situations of Qualcomm and Arm following recent publications. Qualcomm seems to be making the right strategic choices and its valuation remains attractive. Arm's leaves little room for doubt. On Google and OpenAI, Richard analyses the growing competition in online search with the launch of SearchGPT by OpenAI. On Palantir, Richard mentions Palantir's excellent results, which should generate a new phase of upward revisions to consensus estimates. The question of its valuation is also raised. It's no secret that Samsung has been struggling with its in-house app processor for quite some time. The big winner would be Qualcomm, according to Richard. Ian Whittaker published a note on ITV following results that we can describe as bittersweet with ambivalent signals. Finally, we have enriched our academic library with a note by Simon Michaux on the need for metals to move from a fossil ecosystem to a mineral-based economy. This highly comprehensive and detailed study focuses on the physical and industrial requirements needed to phase out fossil fuels while preserving existing industrial ecosystems. #investmentresearch #esginvesting #techinvesting #energytransition