Byelections in Uttarakhand and Jharkhand: A tale of diverging electoral fortunes

The results of the byelections in Uttarakhand and Jharkhand present a stark contrast. The BJP managed to retain the Bageshwar Assembly seat in Uttarakhand by a narrow margin of 2,400 votes. On the other hand, in Jharkhand, the NDA alliance suffered a defeat as it lost the Dumri assembly seat to the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) candidate by a substantial margin of 17,153 votes.

In Bageshwar, located in the hilly Kumaon region of Uttarakhand, the byelection was necessitated due to the unfortunate passing of sitting BJP MLA Chandan Ram Dass, who had represented the constituency four times previously. The party decided to field his wife, Parwati Dass, and the results clearly indicate that this was a pragmatic choice, as the BJP did not want to take any unnecessary risks by fielding another candidate.

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After the results were announced, Uttarakhand Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami expressed, “This victory is a tribute to Chandan Ram Dass, and we will fulfil his dreams.” He credited the victory to the vision of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the welfare schemes of the State government. The Congress found solace in narrowing the victory margin for the BJP.

Bageshwar has been a reserved seat held by the BJP since 2007, and this marks its fifth consecutive win in the constituency. Congress, on the other hand, has not won the seat for over two decades. Despite the concept of a common candidate, the Samajwadi Party (SP) fielded Bhagwati Prasad, who ended up losing his deposit.

The lead-up to the election witnessed candidates switching parties, with Congress candidate Basant Kumar, who narrowly lost, having contested the last Assembly polls as an Aam Aadmi Party candidate in 2018. Additionally, the previous Congress candidate, Ranjeet Das, who was defeated by Chandan Ram Dass, had joined the BJP just weeks before the polls, hoping to secure a ticket. While the BJP chose to rely on the late Dass’ widow, Congress fielded the former AAP candidate. A byelection victory in Uttarakhand is crucial for the BJP, as the State has five Lok Sabha seats, and it could serve as a morale booster ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) candidate Bebi Devi shows a victory sign as she arrives at the voting booth after winning the byelection from Dumri on September 8. | Photo Credit: ANI

The Dumri story

The BJP-led NDA faced significant challenges in Dumri. Despite their efforts and the inclusion of Babu Lal Marandi as the alliance’s State face, they were unable to secure a win. Dumri, located in the naxal-influenced Giridih district, saw the NDA’s All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) nominee, Yashoda Devi, lose to the JMM’s Bebi Devi by a substantial margin of 17,153 votes. Bebi Devi, representing the lone candidate from the INDIA bloc of parties, received 1,00,317 votes, while NDA’s Yashoda Devi secured 83,164 votes.

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The byelection was necessitated due to the vacancy left by the passing of sitting MLA and veteran politician Jagarnath Mahto, who had served as the Education Minister in the Hemant Soren government. Yashoda Devi had previously contested as the AJSU candidate in the 2019 Assembly election but had suffered a significant defeat to Jagarnath Mahto. During that election, the BJP had fielded its own candidate.

However, this time around, Yashoda Devi was the NDA nominee, with the BJP opting to stay out of the race. It is worth noting that Yashoda Devi’s husband, Damodar Mahto, was associated with the JD(U) during the time of undivided Bihar, before Jharkhand was carved out as a separate state in 2000.

In the previous election, the combined vote share of the BJP and AJSU had been greater than that of the JMM. However, this time, Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM also contested, but their candidate Abdul Rizvim received only 3,472 votes, a sharp decline from his 2019 tally of 24,132 votes. Muslims constitute the third-largest voting bloc in the constituency, following the Mahtos (traditional JMM-AJSU supporters) and Vaishyas (traditional BJP supporters).

Hemant Soren, who is currently facing scrutiny from the Enforcement Directorate (ED), expressed his elation at the NDA’s political strength being reduced to zero. The NDA had conducted an extensive campaign in the constituency, with former BJP Chief Ministers Marandi, Arjun Munda, and Raghubar Das addressing rallies in support of the AJSU candidate.

In the 80-member Assembly, the NDA had 29 seats (BJP-26 and AJSU-03), while the JMM-led alliance held 49 seats, with the JMM having 29 and Congress 17.