InterCapital

With inflation back on the rise, people have been quick to find something, or someone, to blame. This time, the finger has been pointed at “greedy retailers”, with organized boycotts taking center stage. While the boycott may seem highly coordinated, it may not be so highly logical to address the root causes of inflation. Instead of scapegoating entrepreneurship, it’s important to take a step back and examine the key factors driving this “new wave” of inflation – factors that only a few seem to acknowledge amidst the noise of public outrage. 📈 🛒 👇

Last Monday, all eyes turned to Washington, D.C., for the inauguration of President Trump as he returned to the Oval Office. In this week’s blog, we analyze the most notable executive orders signed on Trump’s second first day, what to expect from his administration, and the implications for global capital markets.

Cocoa and coffee prices soared in 2024 by some 180% and 70%, respectively, fueled by supply chain disruptions, adverse weather, and surging global demand. While stabilization is on the horizon, weather condition uncertainties and geopolitical tensions suggest these markets will remain highly volatile and unpredictable.

During December 2024, the S&P 500 was down 2.5%, giving an annual return of 23.3%, with equities posting mixed results. During the month, almost all sectors were in red, while - as expected, IT, followed by Communication Services were the most traded sectors. Take a look at what our clients traded in December 👇

InterCapital has successfully advised Mlin i pekare in the reverse takeover of Čakovečki mlinovi d.d., a publicly traded company operating in segments of retail, bakery and milling. This reverse takeover marks first of its kind transaction in Croatian corporate history and also represents a unique transaction where a smaller, private and indebted company acquired a larger, publicly traded and cash-rich one.   We extend our gratitude to OTP banka Hrvatska for their valuable contribution in providing financial backing for the transaction. Our appreciation also goes to Kovačević Prpić Simeunović LLC (KPS) for their expert legal advice. Lastly, we thank our client and the team at Mlin i pekare for outstanding collaboration and support during the two-year process.

Today, we are bringing you our estimates for the dividends in the region, covering both the SBITOP and CROBEX10 indices. This is based on these companies’ expectations, the trends in the respective industries, as well as our own internal estimates. In general, we expect most of the dividends in 2025 to be either similar or higher than the levels achieved in 2024, based on better performance and financial results of the companies in question, as well as a better economic situation, at least relatively, to the same period last year.

Indices in the US recorded strong single-digit growth after Trump's election victory, leading to US equities outperforming other regions. Bitcoin also recorded a significant increase of over 56% compared to pre-election levels, at one time reaching an all-time value of over USD 106k, before stabilizing close to USD 100k. Take a look at what our clients traded in November 👇

Zagreb Stock Exchange „Member of the year“ for the 13th time in a row! InterCapital securities! After receiving the „Member of the year“ award by Ljubljana Stock Exchange (for the 6th time in a row!), today we were awarded by Zagreb Stock Exchange!! As they say in sports, it is harder to defend the titles than to win the first one. Well, we must be doing something right. Congrats to all the issuers which were awarded in various categories (Hrvatski Telekom, Podravka, Arena Hospitality Group, Atlantic Grupa, KONČAR Group)!

Today, we look at Argentina, a nation once celebrated as the “Breadbasket of the World”, with Buenos Aires, its capital, hailed as the “Paris of South America.” Decades of economic mismanagement, structural weaknesses, and political instability have left the country grappling with soaring inflation, a currency in freefall, and widespread poverty by the end of 2023. Amid this turmoil, an outsider to traditional politics, Javier Millei, rose to the Presidency with bold promises of sweeping reforms. Known for his fiery slogans, such as “¡Que se vayan todos!” (“They all must go”) and “Viva la libertad, carajo!” (“Long live freedom, damn it!”), Milei brings both radical ideas but also deep and structured knowledge of economics, and an unabated love for freedom, in all its forms. In this blog, we review his administration’s progress one year into office, exploring the impact of his unprecedented policies on Argentina’s troubled economy.

The year Anno Domini 2024 marks a pivotal super-election year for Romania, with citizens voting in local, European Parliament, presidential, and parliamentary elections, shaping governance at all levels. However, the numerous elections have triggered a spending surge, expected to push Romania’s 2024 budget deficit to 8% of GDP. Furthermore, in the wake of the political turmoil following the first round of the presidential election, Romanian capital markets reacted with increased risk aversion, driving the BET index down approximately 5% since the election process began in November. Therefore, we ask the question: Should you buy the Romanian dip?