Erudite Risk

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed the deployment of North Korean troops to Russia's Kursk region, marking a significant escalation in North Korea's involvement in Russia's military actions amid the Ukraine conflict. This announcement followed a briefing by a South Korean delegation, which included intelligence officials, highlighting security threats in both the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic regions. The South Korean delegation attended a NATO meeting in Brussels alongside ambassadors from the Indo-Pacific partners. Their briefing addressed the growing military collaboration between Moscow and Pyongyang and raised concerns about North Korean forces being positioned at the front lines of the Ukraine conflict. Rutte characterized the development as alarming, especially in light of previous assertions from Ukraine regarding North Korean troop movements in the Kursk area. Discussions may also focus on support for Ukraine, with considerations for sending South Korean intelligence personnel to Kyiv for monitoring. The delegation's engagement with NATO aims to reassess South Korea's policy on nonlethal aid and explore possibilities for military assistance. These actions reflect an urgent response to the evolving situation involving North Korean troop involvement in Russia's military efforts. #AsiaRisk #NorthKorea #SouthKorea https://lnkd.in/dAtFeznV Crisis Management Planning for an NK Crisis Get the Erudite Risk NK Crisis Toolkit https://lnkd.in/gSGK9_fS

Struggling to get through the flooded road at the gateway to Dong Hoi city Heavy rainfall from storm Tra Mi has caused severe flooding on Ly Thanh Tong street, the primary route to Dong Hoi city in Quang Binh province. As of October 29, the flooding led to chaotic traffic and trapped vehicles and pedestrians on Loc Dai bridge. Many drivers attempted to drive through the flooded streets, while some, like Ms. Mo, abandoned their cars to wade through the water. Local resident Mr. Son provided free rickshaw rides, assisting individuals with their motorbikes through deeper sections. Authorities deployed police to manage traffic and help people navigate the submerged areas. By October 29, floodwaters had receded by approximately 15 cm in some low-lying districts but remained problematic elsewhere. Over 32,700 homes were affected, with several villages isolated and significant disruptions to transportation across the province. Floodwaters on National Highway 1A reached depths of 0.5-1 meter; however, bypass routes allowed for some vehicle movement. Despite the gradual decline in flood levels, disruptions continued, particularly on provincial and inter-commune roads. Unfortunately, the floods have resulted in at least one confirmed death and one missing person, along with damage to local fishing vessels. #AsiaRisk #NaturalDisasters #Vietnam Get a full accounting of the security situation in Asia by subscribing to Security Asia. Subscribe now--free of charge--at https://lnkd.in/g7Cs8Gkf https://lnkd.in/d3kX8uCc

Floods rising, Le Thuy district requests rescue teams to stop On October 28, heavy rain caused the Kien Giang River in Le Thuy district to exceed the third warning level by 1.28 meters, resulting in significant flooding. Nearly 15,000 homes were affected, with many in Kien Giang town and nearby areas nearly submerged. Residents evacuated to Kien Giang bridge and Phong Xuan bridge as floodwaters rose. Over three days, more than 19,000 homes experienced flooding of 1.5 to 2.5 meters, leading to the evacuation of 89 households and 333 individuals. Rescue teams from Quang Nam and Thua Thien Hue assisted in evacuations from severely flooded areas, but local authorities have paused operations due to safety concerns stemming from rising waters, heavy rains, and strong winds. Le Thuy District Vice Chairman Le Van Son recognized the teams' efforts while stressing the dangers present. The district has adopted a proactive flood management strategy involving police, military, and specialized units for rescue operations. Storm Tra Mi and cold air have resulted in one confirmed death in Quang Binh province, with two individuals missing after a boat capsized. The province faces over 28,340 flooded households, particularly in Quang Ninh, Le Thuy districts, and Dong Hoi city, with 58 communities cut off. Key roadways, including National Highway 1 and Ho Chi Minh Road, are inundated, marking this flooding as the second largest in four years, after the severe events of October 2020. #AsiaRisk #NaturalDisasters #Vietnam Get a full accounting of the security situation in Asia by subscribing to Security Asia. Subscribe now--free of charge--at https://lnkd.in/g7Cs8Gkf https://lnkd.in/gvnuR8_9

“Scars” are gradually healing after the flood Ms. Ta Thi Pin's family in Muong Hum commune, Bat Xat district, Lao Cai, is rebuilding after a landslide from storm No. 3 (Yagi) destroyed their home over a month ago. Thankfully, all five family members survived, though Ms. Pin's 11-year-old grandson, Tran Ngoc Tu, was briefly trapped but successfully rescued. Recalling the chaos, Ms. Pin described her frantic efforts to warn her family moments before the landslide struck. Tran Ngoc Tu, who experienced fear and confusion while buried, has since healed from his facial injuries, symbolizing the family's resilience. Local authorities facilitated evacuations and coordinated the boy's rescue. The government provided Ms. Pin's family with temporary housing and over 200 million VND in aid for a new home. Tran Ngoc Tu's recovery marks a hopeful turning point as the family continues to heal from this traumatic experience. #AsiaRisk #NaturalDisasters #Vietnam Get a full accounting of the security situation in Asia by subscribing to Security Asia. Subscribe now--free of charge--at https://lnkd.in/g7Cs8Gkf https://lnkd.in/g2iUcW2Z

Extensive flooding has devastated Central Vietnam's Le Thuy District, impacting multiple communes, including An Thuy, Kien Giang Township, Lien Thuy, Loc Thuy, and Phong Thuy. Over 3,700 households face floodwaters exceeding 1 meter, while another 8,600 homes contend with lower levels. Local authorities are responding to the rapid rise in water following heavy rains. The Le Thuy District People's Committee is conducting evacuations for residents in high-risk areas, particularly those vulnerable to landslides and deep flooding. A total of 89 households, or 333 individuals, have been relocated from communes such as Kim Thuy, Ngan Thuy, Lam Thuy, and Thai Thuy, with families in single-story homes moved to safer, multi-story buildings. Tragically, a young man named Le Ngoc Hon lost his life during rescue operations. The flooding has also severely damaged over 370 hectares of crops and 100 hectares of aquaculture ponds. Local reservoirs are nearing capacity, with some already overflowing. Le Van Son, Deputy Chairman of the Le Thuy District People's Committee, emphasized the commitment to the Four On-Site emergency response strategy to mobilize resources for rescues and evacuations. The floods have caused significant disruptions, affecting 17,628 homes, isolating 44 villages, and submerging 70 locations along major roads. #AsiaRisk #ExtremeWeatherEvents #Vietnam Get a full accounting of the security situation in Asia by subscribing to Security Asia. Subscribe now--free of charge--at https://lnkd.in/g7Cs8Gkf https://lnkd.in/gd-ae5NU

China condemned the recent $2 billion arms sale from the US to Taiwan, deeming it a threat to regional peace and pledging decisive counter-measures. The arms package, which includes advanced missile systems to enhance Taiwan's air defenses, has prompted Beijing to warn of increased military action around the island. The Chinese foreign ministry urged the US to stop actions that could destabilize the Taiwan Strait. The Pentagon confirmed the sale, which includes National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (Nasams) and radar systems. Valued at approximately $1.16 billion and $828 million respectively, these represent Taiwan's first acquisition of Nasams, significantly bolstering its defensive capabilities amid growing Chinese threats. Taiwan's defense ministry expressed confidence that the new systems would improve its response to Chinese military maneuvers, while the island's presidential office emphasized the importance of strengthening defenses for regional stability. Following the announcement, Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te reiterated the island’s commitment to self-defense in response to expanded Chinese military operations. This arms sale marks the 17th under President Biden's administration and arrives after significant Chinese military drills simulating encirclement of key ports. Taiwan has reported extensive Chinese military activity during these drills, escalating tensions in the region. In reaction to the increased Chinese military presence, Taiwan's forces are on high alert, closely monitoring regular patrols by Chinese aircraft and warships. The US is obligated by the Taiwan Relations Act to support Taiwan's defense, highlighting the strategic rivalry between Washington and Beijing. China's military actions signify its attempts to counter perceived support for Taiwanese independence, with Beijing condemning the arms sale as detrimental to its security and US-China relations, vowing necessary measures to protect its national sovereignty. #AsiaRisk #GeopoliticalConflictandDisputes #Taiwan Get a full accounting of the security situation in Asia by subscribing to Security Asia. Subscribe now--free of charge--at https://lnkd.in/g7Cs8Gkf https://lnkd.in/gZVMVJQr

Central region has prolonged heavy rain, Hanoi has cold night with scattered showers From October 27 to October 28, heavy rainfall struck central Vietnam, particularly in Ha Tinh and Thua Thien Hue. Kim Son Lake recorded 340.8mm, Lam Thuy 436.6mm, and Huong Lap 179.8mm. Moderate to heavy rain is expected to continue until October 30, with forecasts suggesting 80-160mm of additional rainfall, potentially exceeding 250mm in some areas. Warnings have been issued for flooding in low-lying regions, flash floods in small rivers, and landslides in steep terrains. Storm Tra Mi has caused significant flooding, resulting in one death in Quang Binh and two missing persons in Thua Thien Hue. Damage reports indicate 296 houses suffered roof damage and around 17,628 homes are flooded in Quang Binh. Transportation has been affected, with 39 landslide locations disrupting the North-South railway. The weather forecast for October 29 predicts cloudy conditions with scattered rain and thunderstorms. Hanoi is expected to see temperatures range from 19-21 degrees Celsius at night, with highs of 23-25 degrees Celsius. The Northwest region may enjoy some afternoon sunshine, while the Northeast will experience chilly weather and possible thunderstorms, particularly in southern plains and coastal areas. Similar conditions are anticipated for Thanh Hoa to Thua Thien Hue, Da Nang to Binh Thuan, and the Central Highlands, where severe weather such as tornadoes and strong winds may occur. The Southern region will also experience scattered showers with potential heavy rain. #AsiaRisk #ExtremeWeatherEvents #Vietnam Get a full accounting of the security situation in Asia by subscribing to Security Asia. Subscribe now--free of charge--at https://lnkd.in/g7Cs8Gkf https://lnkd.in/g2xfFJgB

'Can't go, can't stay' in landslide area On September 10, heavy rainfall triggered landslides in Nam Luc Ha village, Bac Ha district, forcing many residents to evacuate. Local resident Luong Van Sum described witnessing the ground collapse in front of his home, prompting his family to seek shelter in makeshift huts along the roadside, where communities collaborated to ensure safety. A total of 28 households were relocated to a safer area near the village temple, built with district government support using bamboo and tarpaulin. Villagers utilized these temporary shelters at night while returning during the day for farming. The persistent threat of landslides has created an atmosphere of uncertainty, leaving many feeling trapped. Post-Typhoon Yagi, over 1,200 households in Bac Ha face relocation challenges due to limited land options. The district government proposed a resettlement plan that allows families to seek their own land for safety, accompanied by financial assistance. However, suitable land remains scarce, and many potential sites are either unsafe or occupied. Residents are burdened with the costs of rebuilding. Luong Van Sum, for example, struggles with high land prices and safety issues. As winter approaches, villagers worry about the upcoming harvest and the prospect of celebrating the Lunar New Year in precarious conditions. While some families have found new housing, many remain in temporary shelters, waiting for assistance as they navigate the instability of their environment. #AsiaRisk #NaturalDisasters #Vietnam Get a full accounting of the security situation in Asia by subscribing to Security Asia. Subscribe now--free of charge--at https://lnkd.in/g7Cs8Gkf https://lnkd.in/gMe-JWnd

Rescinding provisions of the Civil Defense Act that enable civilian forces to assist the military during wartime would dangerously compromise national defense, according to Minister of the Interior Liu Shyh-fang. This statement was in response to a proposal by KMT Legislator Hsu Chiao-hsin that seeks to limit civilian defense efforts and raises concerns about conscripting civilians into militia roles. The government plans to train 400,000 individuals for a civilian defense force to bolster national resilience. Liu's concerns over Hsu's proposal still under Legislative review highlight the importance of the training initiative, which will include around 270,000 active military reservists, 40,000 volunteer firefighters, and over 70,000 members from civic task forces like volunteer police and disaster response teams. This force aims to provide disaster and emergency support through humanitarian aid and public order maintenance. While essential in disaster response, Liu noted that armed forces cannot be mobilized for such tasks if engaged in warfare. The Civil Defense Act is designed to comply with the Geneva Conventions, establishing a framework for societal resilience in extreme conditions. Liu clarified that civilian defense forces are non-combatants, focusing on logistics and public order rather than military missions. Education plays a crucial role in this initiative, with students being trained to recognize and respond to disasters, integrating safety courses into school curricula. Liu criticized the negative stigma surrounding civilian involvement in defense efforts, likening it to the perceived risks associated with physical education in schools. #AsiaRisk #GeopoliticalConflictandDisputes #Taiwan Get a full accounting of the security situation in Asia by subscribing to Security Asia. Subscribe now--free of charge--at https://lnkd.in/g7Cs8Gkf https://lnkd.in/gXzWsQCB

Quang Tri: Urgently supporting food and necessities for people in flood-hit areas Functional forces are providing food support to residents in flood-affected Vinh Long commune following heavy rain on October 27-28, which saw rainfall of 80-200 mm. This has led to rising river levels and flooding, impacting infrastructure across Huong Hoa and Dakrong districts. The worst-hit areas include Vinh Long, Vinh Lam, Vinh Thuy, and Vinh O communes, where 600 homes and 1,800 individuals in Vinh Long are severely affected. Local authorities and supporting agencies are implementing urgent measures to assist victims, including transporting essential supplies like rice, water, and instant noodles to isolated villagers. Motorboats have been deployed for delivery, complemented by local contributions of boats from Vinh Thai commune. Support initiatives aim to stabilize affected communities and prepare for potential future flooding. Infrastructure repair is also underway, as floodwaters have damaged a 1.3 km section of the North-South railway line in Quang Tri province. The Binh Tri Thien Railway Joint Stock Company has mobilized 120 workers and machinery to expedite repairs, targeting a reopening of the railway by the afternoon of October 29. Additionally, evacuation measures for over 2,400 residents are being implemented as water levels continue to rise. #AsiaRisk #NaturalDisasters #Vietnam Get a full accounting of the security situation in Asia by subscribing to Security Asia. Subscribe now--free of charge--at https://lnkd.in/g7Cs8Gkf https://lnkd.in/gJfiWpUs