Stormy futures: How climate change is reshaping marine engineering

Corrosion can accelerate structural fatigue

As Daniel J. Thomas from Creation Engineering Group emphasizes in his article, unsymmetrical load forces, harsh sea conditions, low temperatures, and, more importantly, corrosion can accelerate structural fatigue. Corrosion induces cracks, weakening materials under dynamic loads like waves and winds. This process is particularly dangerous in marine environments.

Despite these challenges, the global marine engineering market is booming. It is valued at approximately USD 108.4 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach around USD 180.21 billion by 2032. This growth encompasses various applications in oil rigs, boats, and ships. While marine constructions aim to minimize failure probabilities, structural strength can decrease over time.

To what extent does climate change factor into this scenario?

How significantly will climate change affect wave strength? How quickly can marine engineers adapt to these changes?

“Well, it is always difficult to reply with a straight quantitative answer to that, because it depends from situation to situation and the context of the environmental variable that we are talking about (e.g. wave load, wave-induced pressure, wave height, etc…),” Professor Tiago Fazeres Ferradosa at the Faculty of Engineering of the University of Porto and researcher of the Interdisciplinary Centre of Marine and Environmental Research (CIIMAR), told Interesting Engineering.

He stressed the need to account for climate uncertainty in short-term and long-term planning for sea storms and wave behavior.

This climate uncertainty significantly influences how we safeguard our coastal communities, marine resources, and offshore installations. It affects strategies for protecting valuable assets, human populations, and critical infrastructure in coastal and marine environments.

Wave data uncertainties

A recent study on wave data source uncertainties in the Adriatic Sea revealed significant differences between databases, particularly regarding extreme values.

The scientists described and compared four-wave data sources collected from nearby locations in the Adriatic Sea. The impact of discrepancies in wave data on the design of marine structures is illustrated through three examples:

• Evaluating wave energy for selecting a wave energy converter
• Predicting extreme wave loads for structural strength assessment
• Calculating accumulated fatigue damage

The findings show significant differences between the wave data in the four databases, particularly regarding extreme values.

Study author Maro Ćorak from the University of Dubrovnik highlighted that limitations in data collection, especially during storms, necessitate using expensive satellite databases for accurate measurements.

Satellite measurements, though costly, are currently the most reliable method for accurately assessing wave surfaces.

Traditional databases like Global Wave Statistics have limitations, particularly in capturing extreme weather events. Ship captains typically avoid storms for safety reasons, resulting in a lack of data on severe wave conditions.

Consequently, researchers often must invest in pricier satellite databases to obtain comprehensive wave data, including information on extreme events.

A 2018 study noted that while definitive climate change conclusions are challenging, potential shifts in marine environments could significantly impact ship safety and design in certain regions. The industry has tools to address these changes but may need improvement. The study called for a more systematic assessment of climate impacts on various marine structures.

How quickly can marine engineers adapt to these changes?

Xiaofan Li, an assistant research scientist in the Department of Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering at the University of Michigan-Ann Arbor, emphasized the need to integrate knowledge from various disciplines to address climate change impacts.

He told IE that marine engineers must embrace innovation and creativity to tackle the impacts of climate change effectively. “Meanwhile, enhanced data collection and accessibility, regulatory support from the government, and encouragement on collaborative effort will also help this effort,” he added.

According to Professor Ferradosa, maritime engineering projects now incorporate extensive analysis of climate-induced challenges.

“Nowadays, the development of maritime engineering projects, from the coast to offshore zones always incorporate a considerable degree of analysis and a set of measures to account for climate-induced challenges and the need to mitigate them,” he said.

The challenge of upgrades and adaptations

Existing structures may require expensive upgrades to withstand extreme conditions brought by climate change. Ćorak explained that while many existing ships are likely over-dimensioned, design procedures are constantly refined for new constructions.

“Existing ships are very likely over-dimensioned, and if they are used and maintained properly, I do not believe there will be a need for upgrades in terms of increasing strength. What is certain is that existing design procedures are constantly being upgraded and refined, incorporating new knowledge, but new procedures mainly apply to new constructions. One of the best examples is IACS Recommendation No. 34 REV.2.” he told IE.

Future research directions

Research should focus on improving wave statistics, optimizing ship structures, and enhancing ship management in adverse weather conditions.

“By the latter, I mean avoiding extreme sea states and maneuvering (changing course and reducing ship speed) in bad weather. Another area, closely related to climate change and ships, has recently become of much greater interest,” said Ćorak.

The International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) goal of zero harmful emissions from ships by 2050 presents a significant challenge, requiring substantial technological advancements.

The decarbonization dilemma

According to the IMO, shipping emissions accounted for approximately 2.9 percent of global CO2 emissions in 2018, and without mitigation measures, this figure is projected to increase.

Transitioning to cleaner fuels like hydrogen, ammonia, or LNG represents proactive steps toward achieving a sustainable maritime sector that aligns with international climate targets.

Professor Myles Allen, head of Atmospheric, oceanic, and Planetary Physics in the Department of Physics at the University of Oxford, identified decarbonization as the marine engineering industry’s biggest challenge.

“There are fully carbon-free options like hydrogen or ammonia, or there is the option of switching to LNG fuel, which cuts emissions by 20 percent or so, and banking on the cost of air capture coming down enough so it will be economic to keep burning fossil fuels past 2050 and simply recapture the CO2 out of the atmosphere,” he told IE.

The industry must decide whether to invest in new fuel technologies or bank on future advancements in carbon capture.

The marine engineering sector stands at a crossroads, balancing technological advancement, climate adaptation, and environmental responsibility. As it navigates these challenges, the industry’s decisions will have far-reaching implications for global shipping and climate change mitigation efforts.