Ukraine’s deepest AI-drone strikes ‘disrupt’ Russian oil refineries

“Accuracy under jamming is enabled through the use of artificial intelligence. Each aircraft has a terminal computer with satellite and terrain data,” one unnamed source told CNN.

“The flights are determined in advance with our allies, and the aircraft follow the flight plan to enable us to strike targets with meters of precision,” the source added.

This precision, the source added, is possible thanks to the drones’ advanced suite of sensors.

AI drones damaging Russian oil industry

“They have this thing called ‘machine vision,’ a form of AI. Basically, you take a model, put it on a chip, and train this model to identify geography and the target it is navigating to,” said Noah Sylvia, a research analyst at the Royal United Services Institute, a UK-based think tank

When it is finally deployed, it will be able to identify where it is,” she added. It does not require any communication (with satellites); it is completely autonomous.”

This tactic is paying off. So far, Ukraine claims that it has knocked out roughly 12% of Russia’s oil refining capacity. Reuters has estimated the damage to be closer to 14%.

Russia has banned gasoline exports to avoid domestic fuel price increases due to decreased refining capacity. Impressive, especially given the relative crudeness of the AI being used on the drones.

Chris Lincoln-Jones, an expert in drone warfare and AI and a former British military officer, stated that the level of “intelligence” in AI is still very low.

“This level of autonomy had not yet been seen in drones, but we are still in the early stages of [this technology’s potential],” he said.

Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion on February 22, 2022, Ukraine has heavily relied on drones and has invested resources in advancing technology and domestic manufacturing.

Oil prices are being impacted

Initially, Kyiv relied on readily available equipment, which was either used for surveillance purposes or modified on the ground to drop small bombs. However, the city has now established a complete drone industry, which provides it with a technological advantage to counter Russia’s larger manpower and better-equipped industrial infrastructure.

Experts contacted by CNN stated that Ukraine has been targeting distillation units instead of fuel storage facilities. “From what we’ve seen, some of it is they’re striking targets that need a lot of Western technology and Russia has a much more difficult time procuring this technology,” Sylvia said.

This approach deals more damage to Ukraine’s targets than random refinery strikes, and markets are taking notes. Brent crude, for example, is up nearly 13% this year, which has left politicians in the United States worried about the potential economic impact.

Meanwhile, U.S. officials say they “do not encourage or enable attacks inside of Russia.”

Helima Croft, a managing director and global head of commodity strategy at the investment bank RBC Capital Markets, has said that the U.S. and international sanctions imposed since the beginning of the war were designed to keep Russian energy on the market.

“That was the deal with Ukraine: We will give you money, we will give you weapons, but stay away from the export facility, stay away from Russian energy because we don’t want a massive energy crisis,” Croft added.