The space debris problem continues to grow.
A new analysis of a near-miss for NASA’s TIMED satellite in February shows that debris came much closer than previously thought.
The new update adds to the growing list of close calls and raises alarm over the increasing frequency of these events.
NASA TIMED satellite’s close encounter
In late February, space shrapnel from the defunct Russian Cosmos 2221 satellite narrowly missed NASA’s TIMED spacecraft. TIMED is an operational satellite tasked with studying the Mesosphere and Lower Ionosphere.
Had the two collided, it would have created thousands of tiny pieces of space debris. After that, this debris would have continued to fly around Earth’s orbit at tens of thousands of miles per hour. They could then smash and fragment other satellites or pieces of space junk, creating a cascading effect known as Kessler Syndrome.
Initial observations suggested the two satellites came within 20 meters of each other. However, a NASA official recently revealed that it was much closer.
During the 39th Space Symposium in Colorado Springs earlier this month, NASA Deputy Administrator Pam Melroy said, “We recently learned through analysis that the pass ended up being less than 10 meters [33 feet] apart — within the hard-body parameters of both satellites.”
“It was very shocking personally, and also for all of us at NASA,” Melroy was quoted as saying by Space.com. The near miss “really scared us all,” she added.
Crucially, both TIMED and the defunct defense satellite Cosmos 2221 are non-maneuverable, meaning NASA was not able to alter its satellite’s trajectory as a precautionary measure. In recent years, for example, it has had to alter the International Space Agency’s trajectory to avoid space junk created by a Russian weapon test.
The cascading space debris problem
Space debris is a growing problem for the global astronomical community as well as for the satellite industry. It is even becoming more of a problem on Earth, as space debris recently tore through the roof of a Florida house in March.
“Had the two satellites collided, we would have seen significant debris generation – tiny shards traveling tens of thousands of miles an hour, waiting to puncture a hole in another spacecraft, potentially putting human lives at risk,” Melroy explained.
There are over 27,000 pieces of space debris in orbit, and this number will continue to grow as the rate of satellite launches far outpaces any efforts at building debris removal technology.
In a 2022 interview with IE, University of Regina astronomer Dr. Samantha Lawler explained that SpaceX’s Starlink constellation has us “right on the edge” of Kessler Syndrome. This would impede astronomical operations by making it look like we are “inside a snow globe within a couple of hours of sunrise or sunset.” Any efforts to clean that mess would be like “collecting bullets.”
