Aleph - Analisi strategiche

A quasi dodici anni dall’inizio dell’era di Xi Jinping, una panoramica delle dinamiche di potere cinesi all’epoca della lotta tra fazioni. Nomi ed eventi che raccontano l’ascesa di un Segretario divenuto Imperatore. - Giacomo Focaccia per Aleph https://lnkd.in/dsxPfGuN

Since Kosovo's declaration of independence in 2008, which Serbia and its key allies like Russia and China refuse to recognize, relations between the two countries have been strained. International mediators have attempted to facilitate dialogue, but the normalization of relations remains elusive. The election of Albin Kurti as Kosovo's Prime Minister in 2021, with his nationalist platform and assertive stance, has introduced new complexities to the dialogue process. Kurti’s leadership could either lead to breakthroughs or escalate tensions, making it essential to carefully monitor the evolving negotiations. Examining both the changes in Kosovo's strategy and the current stalemate, more than a year after the Ohrid summit, is key to understanding the situation. - Jeta Gashi for Aleph - AS https://lnkd.in/dqbk_jf7

Russia’s “cutting-edge” Su-57 fighter jet, known to NATO as the “Felon,” was intended to rival the supremacy of the US F-22 and F-35. Yet, its performance in the Ukraine conflict has unearthed a host of technical and structural issues. While the Su-57 boasts impressive speed and advanced technology, it falls short in stealth capabilities compared to its Western counterparts. Reports suggest that the Felon is facing significant challenges, including vulnerabilities to advanced air defenses and electronic warfare. Additionally, production delays and logistical hurdles have further hampered its operational effectiveness. As Russia’s most advanced fighter, the Felon’s underwhelming performance in Ukraine raises critical questions about its future role and effectiveness in modern aerial combat. - Michela Miglio for Aleph AS https://lnkd.in/dmgp9Z9m

The idea of the deep blue state like California and New York is tied with progressive economic and social policies that are not seen elsewhere in the United States, however that is not necessarily the case. In competitive states, their respective democratic parties diverge, not by compromising, but doubling down on progressive policies. Read more on the implications and examples of this phenomenon occurring in current US politics on our website. Edoardo Maggi for Aleph https://lnkd.in/dbvUYMJb

In September 2024, Germany will witness three consecutive state elections in its radical-leaning east—on September 1 in Thuringia and Saxony, and on September 22 in Brandenburg—with the next federal election looming large the following year. Two disruptive newcomers, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the left-conservative Union Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), are likely to emerge as winners. For the moment, their entrance in government seems unlikely. However, as their influence grows and their policy platforms garner mainstream support, a look ahead reveals their vision for Germany’s complicated relations with Russia, China, and the European Union. Their programs reveal the many ways in which they aspire to upend the foreign policy consensus of Europe’s biggest economy. - Gregor Lauth for Aleph https://lnkd.in/dgkSN63d

 In May 2024, Georgia’s parliament approved a controversial “foreign influence” law that has ignited uproar from media outlets, opposition parties, civil society groups, and especially the socially and politically active Gen Z. With the bill now enacted—after 84 votes in favour and 30 against—NGOs and independent media that receive more than 20% of their funding from foreign donors would have to register as organisations “bearing the interests of a foreign power.” Not only will they be monitored by the Ministry of Justice, along with any other person related to these organisations, they will also be forced to share sensitive and confidential information. The consequences are worth exploring. - natalia papuashvili for Aleph https://lnkd.in/dX6tMZsM

When Donald Trump made history by winning the Republican nomination and the presidency in 2016, many decried a radical break with conservative history. In retrospect, Trump’s election was the natural result in a process stretching decades. His rhetoric recalls the anger of the ‘90s, his thought the Birchers of the ‘50s. His base is rooted in the same petite bourgeoisie the right has always counted on. The capture of conservative institutions by the Donald’s allies has now embedded an inchoate authoritarianism in its leadership. That his probable successors lack his charismatic appeal is bad news: liberal democracy is no longer a winning bet for the American right. The final essay in our series on American conservatism examines the contested present and uncertain future of American conservatism. Although not yet set in stone, it seems that reaction has displaced conservatism, but the worst might only come after Donald Trump. Read more on our website! - Antonio Carapella for Aleph AS https://lnkd.in/d3gxeGa7

Contemporaries described Ronald Reagan’s rise to the presidency in 1980 as “the election that Watergate postponed.” It heralded a political realignment not seen since Roosevelt, dispatching the remnants of the New Deal coalition. But what happened between Nixon and Reagan? The conservative movement born under Buckley and Goldwater matured, extending its influence far into the world of capital and nurturing the powerful religious right. The Republican Party became the party Americans recognize today: the party of aggressive anti-communism, merciless tax cuts, and straight-laced Puritanism. In this second piece on the American Right, a vivid portrait is painted of American society from 1972 to 1992. To understand American politics today, this is indispensable. - Antonio Carapella for Aleph https://lnkd.in/dNMycvqc

What is American conservatism and where is it going? From Trump’s unquestionable leadership to Project 2025, there’s been much talk of the Republican Party’s radicalization. This essay, the first of three, is an attempt to trace its origins over 80 years, examining the activists, intellectuals, politicians, preachers, and institutions that made Donald Trump possible. From 1946 to 1972, the nascent conservative movement emerged from the cracks of the New Deal. Harnessing fear of communism and desegregation, it built a base amongst the petit bourgeoisie, Southern whites, and the Sun Belt’s suburbanites. It rode the tide of the ‘60s to occupy an important position in the Republican Party, but there was still much time before it would become the conservatism Americans recognize in 2024. - Antonio Carapella for Aleph https://lnkd.in/ddGEuPFW

Il QUAD, o Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, è un'alleanza strategica tra Stati Uniti, Giappone, India e Australia che mira a promuovere un Indo-Pacifico libero, aperto e inclusivo, garantendo la sicurezza e la stabilità nella regione. Si è formato per affrontare sfide comuni come la sicurezza marittima, il terrorismo, i cambiamenti climatici e, in particolare, per contenere l'influenza crescente della Cina, attraverso una cooperazione rafforzata in ambito diplomatico, economico e militare. Per Aleph - Gabriele Catellani, Jacopo Briseghella, Giacomo Focaccia e Guido Riccio https://lnkd.in/dfz4waCB