Market Overview

It’s difficult to count the number of mainstream macro theories that we’ve debunked over the past few years. Many long-used relationships and correlations have been upended by record monetary and...

Donald Trump won the election by a clearer and wider margin than what was expected, and the Republicans gained control of the Senate. In the short-term, we believe this outcome is likely to be...

The latest UK government budget, which saw big tax rises but even bigger spending increases projected for 2025-26, has forced markets to rethink Bank of England expectations. Rates are expected to...

The Fed cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps yesterday as widely expected. We expected it as well, though we still believe that the now 75bps cut in the FFR since September 18 is too much, too...

Donald Trump's win and the Republican sweep of the House (probably) and the Senate (certainly) is consistent with our Roaring 2020s scenario. Indeed, it increases the odds that the good times will...

Elections have consequences and so Donald Trump’s return to the White House as the 47th president will surely change the calculus. The policy differences between the Republican president-elect and...

Stocks ended the day higher amid an implied volatility crush, with the VIX index dropping sharply. The VIX closed the gap from its significant rise on Thursday, October 31. More interesting was the...

As I have been writing publicly for over 13 years, and have been running my services for and teaching trading and investing to thousands of retail customers and money manager clients for the same, I...

Trump vs Harris: Who's Better for Gold, Stocks and US Dollar?

In his 2022 Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRKa) shareholder letter, Warren Buffett wrote that in his 80 years of investing, he had “yet to see a time when it made sense to make a long-term bet against...

Some of our best friends are technicians. Ed was at Prudential Equity Group at the same time as Ralph Acampora, the renowned market historian and technical analyst. Ralph's analysis often confirmed...

Our time target for the bull market will be registered on election day. Of course, there must be a (+/-) tolerance built into the time target because who among us is a legitimate Swami, able to read...

Can famed investors Paul Tudor Jones and Stan Druckenmiller, who recently proclaimed they are short bonds, thus betting on higher yields, be wrong? Instead of mindlessly assuming such legendary...

Global markets suffered a broad-based downturn in October. For the first time since April, a majority of the major asset classes posted monthly losses based on a set of ETF proxies. The upside...