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✨ September 2024 US Executive Briefing Unveiled by the EY EY-Parthenon Macroeconomics Team! 📉 Economic Overview: The latest data suggest a gradual economic slowdown, yet consumers and businesses continue prudent spending. The #economy is poised to slow into 2025 as restrictive monetary policy and elevated costs continue to curb private sector activity, but we believe recession risks remain contained. 🔍 Federal Reserve's Strategic Move: In response to labor market softness and more benign #inflation, the Fed has enacted a substantial 50 basis point rate cut, the first since 2020. Chair #Powell emphasizes that this policy recalibration aims to avert excessive labor market deterioration, maintaining a data-dependent approach to future decisions. 📊 Looking Ahead: We support the Fed's decision for a "catch-up rate cut" and anticipate a policy of gradualism moving forward, with expected 25 bps cuts at each #Fed meeting through June next year. This would total an additional 50 bps easing in 2024 and 150 bps through 2025. 🙌 Acknowledgment to my exceptional team: Special thanks to Lydia Boussour, Marko S. Jevtic, Dan Moody, Eric Setiawan, Yea Won Lee, Megh Pandhi & Lilanthi Alahendra for their insights and contributions. 📑 Join our monthly distribution list here: https://lnkd.in/dmpGXN_m