🌐 Market Insight: Dairy Trends Taking a Twist 🌐
Last week was a rollercoaster for the dairy market, proving once again that predicting trends isn't for the faint-hearted. 📉 After showing some stability, the butter market took a sharp dip on Friday, while cheddar prices bucked the trend and moved upwards. At the same time, SMP prices hit September lows, despite cream and raw milk staying tight and trading high.
Fundamentals still point to a bullish outlook, but market sentiment has shifted towards bearishness across several key commodities. It's a classic case of fundamentals vs. sentiment – and it's forcing us to ask: Are we sticking too rigidly to our bullish forecast, or is the market overreacting to short-term signals? 🤔
💡 What to Watch: The upcoming GDT event on Tuesday could provide some clarity, especially with recent signs of Chinese government stimulus boosting dairy sector confidence. Expectations are mixed, with futures suggesting a softer market, but conversations with local traders in Asia hint at a more balanced -1%/+1% outcome.
📊 Key Highlights:
🐮 Liquids: Volatility reigns, with raw milk prices in some regions topping 60 cents but showing softness toward the end of the week.
🥪 Butter: A surprising downturn, despite strong fundamentals – are we underestimating the impact of short-term selling pressure?
🧀 Cheese: Firm demand for certain varieties, but forward projections show significant backwardation.
⚪ Powders: Bearish sentiment dominates, with excess stocks creating downward pressure.
The question remains: Is this a temporary lull, or are we witnessing a shift in the market? 🤷♂️ With Q4 just around the corner, it’s a pivotal time for dairy professionals to stay ahead of the curve.
➡️ Check out our full analysis .And as always, I’d love to hear your thoughts – are you bullish, bearish, or somewhere in between? Let’s connect and discuss!
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