Como você pode se preparar para o inesperado em uma função de estratégia de negócios?

The key assumptions that is impacting the final outcome of the strategic plan must be throughly studied, examined , tested. Both sensitivity analysis and simulation techniques are crucial to understand the importance of the variation of certain assumptions on the key outcomes of the plan. We can run a sensitivity analysis of the key variables and see what impacts the outcome most. The objective is to keep a very close eye on those assumptions / variables so if they are changing beyond tolerance the management is timely warned. The charges in assumptions more than one require simulation techniques to assess impact with more complex models. Final objective is to ensure enough control and attention is exercised on key assumptions.

Strategy operates in a completely VUCA world. There will never be a completely inclusive or a comprehensive assumptions and environment. Start with understanding the maximum and then accepting that things will change with the time and strategy will also be revised

Para se preparar para o inesperado em uma função de estratégia de negócios, é importante ter em mente o seguinte: Fique informado: Mantenha-se atualizado com tendências da indústria, desenvolvimentos econômicos e informações competitivas para antecipar desafios e oportunidades potenciais. Seja flexível: Desenvolva uma estratégia flexível que possa ser ajustada conforme as circunstâncias mudam. Planeje contingências: Identifique potenciais riscos e desenvolva planos de contingência para mitigá-los. Monitore o desempenho: Estabeleça métricas e relatórios regulares para acompanhar o progresso e detectar rapidamente problemas.

I would suggest : Prioritize risk management by creating contingency plans for various scenarios. Diversify your business to reduce dependence on a single market or product line . Learn about industry trends & macroeconomic changes. Ensure financial robustness . Develop flexible strategies that can adapt to changing circumstances. Invest in technology to leverage operational agility. Work on a good team culture geared towards adaptability and many more !

Diversificação e Caixa. Os eventos "inesperados" são cada vez mais prováveis. Assim, uma boa estratégia deve ter espaço pra diversificação, não concentrando toda a expectativa em um único cenário. Além disso, é sempre importante (quando possível) reservar caixa para possíveis necessidades e/ou oportunidades. Quando o inesperado acontece, a liquidez pode fazer a diferença entre quem reage a tempo ou quem fica pra traz.

In today’s business world, the only thing that is certain is uncertainty. Therefore, leaders and managers must embrace uncertainty. Some of the key ways to address uncertainty that can not be avoided are , 1. Scenario planning - plan for many what ifs - run a few different scenarios of your key assumptions - high - low - moderate to see how the results vary and what you can do to better the outcome 2. Build resilience in the team - the execution team of the strategy should anticipate changes in assumptions and be prepared to for a worst case scenario 3. Build contingency resources into the plan to address adverse impacts of uncertainty 4. Communicate and document to the leadership and boards of such eventualities and readiness

Being flexible and be prepared and always allow room for uncertainty is essential in business strategy. No forecasting too that is 100% perfect as the entire world is contingent and affected to dynamic and macro changes. Therefore, always expect a variance and being prepared accordingly is what is expected in this era of volatile business context.

In the ever-evolving landscape of software and artificial intelligence, embracing uncertainty is akin to a gardener who loves the surprise of new blooms. Just as AI learns from data, we learn from the unexpected—using it as fertile ground for innovation. Cybersecurity, for instance, thrives on anticipating the unpredictable, ensuring our systems adapt and grow stronger with each challenge. By fostering a culture that values experimentation and diverse insights, we not only future-proof our strategies but also cultivate an ecosystem where creativity and resilience lead to groundbreaking advancements.

No intuito de contribuição ao passo 2 considero que ao se deparar com uma situação não prevista, a mentalidade de crescimento e a aceitação da incerteza oferecem benefícios adicionais. A abertura para o aprendizado contínuo, conforme destacado pelo autor, permite adaptar-se rapidamente, transformando desafios em oportunidades de inovação. A busca por diversas perspectivas em momentos de incerteza amplia a gama de soluções possíveis, promovendo a resiliência e a capacidade de encontrar caminhos criativos diante do inesperado. Essa flexibilidade e adaptabilidade, quando combinadas com uma mentalidade de aprendizado contínuo, fortalecem a capacidade de liderança e a resolução eficaz de problemas em cenários imprevisíveis.

Because a business strategy role is uniquely characterized by the fusion of analytical, creative, and interpersonal skills, demanding adaptability, interdisciplinary knowledge, communication proficiency, and innovation; this role is best placed to foster a culture where adaptability is prized, encouraging teams to explore new ideas and approaches. The need to develop contingency plans that acknowledge the unpredictable nature of business environments, allowing for swift adjustments when unforeseen challenges arise is also equally important.

Decision-making occurs within a complex web of interrelated consequences. Considering these interconnected effects, both foreseeable and indirect, is crucial for avoiding future difficulties. Actively asking "And then what?" for each option is a critical strategy for anticipating potential downsides. Thinking systemically and planning ahead with limited information are key. Weighing options is what separates wise choices from messy outcomes. A bit of upfront thought saves a ton of backtracking later.

Planning, planning and planning make the game much easier! Understand the business, identify the risks/challenges and be ready for them! Plan B, Plan C etc. will be important in the "what if" scenario! So be prepared, be ready.

In your contingency planning, - avoid “this is not realistic” thinking. After 9/11 even “not realistic scenarios” have to be included in the known and unknown disruptive (and disastrous) events management planning.

Even as a shark, I know not every hunt goes as planned. So, I have backup routes through the reefs! Similarly, in business, craft contingency plans for when currents change. They're your secret paths through troubled waters, ensuring you're prepared for unexpected storms or hidden treasures. Use risk analysis like echolocation, guiding your way to safer, opportunistic waters. With a well-mapped array of alternatives, you'll navigate business seas with the confidence of a predator at the top of the food chain. Be the shark that's ready for anything the ocean throws your way! Spread Shark Love #divineintervention #gabenfreude

A good way to set a base would be to always default to 3 levels of scenario planning. Realistic case, worst case and best case. Make sure you try to eliminate bias when setting your realistic scenario as this would be your baseline. I have seen many organisations get overconfident in such cases and avoid being critical on this process, only to be taken by suprise when conditions worsen before recovery. Once these 3 levels have been visualised and rehearsed build people capability to meet your worst case scenario. Ensure teams are always prepared. This sets a stress floor, allowing your team to build upward. Training should be a vital element of contingency planning.

I think it's very important to consider to upgrade your social skills as well, not only technological ones. Having a strategic role in your organization it requires not only to create the shiny strategy slides, but ability to drive and implement defined strategies with PEOPLE in your organization. And without proper social leadership competences and skills, especially considering new generation of employees,it will be very hard to drive your organization to success.

1. **Online Courses and Certifications:** Explore reputable online platforms offering courses and certifications in business strategy. Platforms like LinkedIn Learning, Coursera, or Udemy provide a variety of courses ranging from strategic planning to the latest trends in business development. 2. **Industry-Specific Workshops and Webinars:** Attend industry-specific workshops and webinars to stay updated on the latest trends, technologies, and best practices. 3. **Professional Networking and Communities:** Join professional networks and communities related to business strategy. Engaging with peers, sharing experiences,

Skill upgrading and be in touch with the changes in business environment is very crucial today. If the team and leadership can see the trends and identify them early enough so necessary cause correction can be done, you can be ahead of the game. It is essential that leaders and managers today, update and upgrade skills through the unlimited access to information and knowledge through the world of IOTs ( Internet of Things). The immense opportunities that are provided through professional platforms like LinkedIn are so valuable and relevant today. In order for this aspect to be leveraged the management should be open and bold and must be tech savvy with a continuous learning mind set. Organizations must encourage teams in this regard.

Agile values of transparency, flexibility and collaboration will help you deal with uncertainty. You need a team with a nimble mindset, who feel safe to make suggestions promptly and to move fast.

In a VUCA world, it's essential to continually update skills not only to keep pace with advancing companies but also to proactively lead changes. Additionally, cultivating liberal arts is crucial for gaining insights beyond cognitive biases that go beyond one's imagination.

Surround yourself with a diverse set of individuals who can provide different perspectives. People with unique backgrounds who have different life and professional experiences. Even those who come from completely different industries who may have brilliant ideas with broader applicability. The best strategies I have created were because of the exceptionally diverse group of people that help build it.

Seeking support is a fundamental human need. It's a natural inclination to reach out for guidance, advice, and assistance when facing challenges or seeking growth. Connecting with others, learning from their experiences, and leveraging collective knowledge fosters personal and professional development. .

Here let me suggest not just seek the support but rather focus on managing the relations with the stakeholders and their expectations. What it means practically is: 1. Establish clearly the circle of the critical stakeholders who support you in the transformation journey 2. Keep/establish regular communication routine with the stakeholders in order to keep the transparent relations 3. In case of the various scenarios of the unexpected the stakeholders may become a source of the support, inspiration and joined decisions The steps above will help you not to stay alone facing the challenges of the unexpected.

In the vast ocean, even a mighty shark knows the value of a loyal school. In business, surround yourself with a team of savvy fish—colleagues, mentors, and advisors. Don't navigate the murky depths solo; seek guidance and collaborate to tackle the unexpected together. Share your strategies, gather feedback, and swim in sync with your business shoal. By cultivating support, you build a stronger, more resilient approach to challenges and opportunities alike. Together, you'll make waves, turning the tides in your favor. Keep your fins united and your vision sharp! Spread Shark Love #divineintervention #gabenfreude

Update contacts with external actors that could be of assistance in case of a major disruptive (disastrous) event. Also, update (train) staff knowledge about normal reactions (and basic needs) after an un-normal event. Corporate critical info should also be kept secure in an analog format.

Reviewing and revising business strategy are very relevant in today’s business context. The flexibility and adaptability are key traits that organizations and teams must inculcate. This shows the agility and maturity of a leadership team. If you take Covid 19 pandemic as an example , one can understand how many business plans needed to be revised quick enough at every business to face the impacts of that contingency. The organizations that were quick and agile to make course correction fast enough survived and prevailed. Others were left behind. In fact the organizations who could adjust their course fast enough and had the mettle to face adversity grew faster taking that as an opportunity when majority failed.

Foster collaboration across different departments and teams. This facilitates a better understanding of potential challenges from various perspectives and enables a more holistic approach to problem-solving

Just as a shark constantly adjusts its course in the ever-changing sea, regularly review and adapt your business strategy. Keep a keen eye on the horizon, tracking progress and adapting to the ocean's currents. Utilize tools like KPIs and dashboards as your navigational stars, guiding you through the murky waters of the market. Revise your plans with the precision of a predator, ensuring you're always on the hunt for success. By staying vigilant and flexible, you ensure that your business remains the apex predator in the ecosystem of industry. Keep evolving, keep leading, keep conquering! Spread Shark Love #divineintervention #gabenfreude

KRIs and KPIs. They work together to provide companies and their leaders with the metrics needed to fortify their businesses. Both KPIs and KRIs are needed — they work hand-in-hand to create a complete picture for effective and timely decision-making.  KPIs ** ** look backward and focus on how well companies are achieving their goals. KPIs identify and prioritize a company’s key goals as well as monitor performance against those goals. KRIs are predictive. They assess and manage potential risks to goals. They focus on the likelihood of companies achieving their goals based on potential risk factors. KRIs also monitor risks and send an early warning when the business is at risk of not achieving its goals.

Pay attention to what is happening in your competitive categories! Your focus should be more external than internal. By staying abreast of developments you will become better at anticipating needs for course correction. Consider using a “war gaming” approach to develop your strategies. This means that you are evaluating what your competitors COULD do rather than predicting what they WILL do. This thinking will give you a head start when unexpected things happen, making you more agile and adaptable!

Detached-attachment! It is easy to say ‘embrace change’ or ‘stay flexible’ but these are mere words. To achieve them you have to stay connected to your own self, constantly remain introspective and anchored so that you do not get so close to action that you are blinded when the action changes. Staying grounded and humble are the secret sauce of staying on top of situations!

To navigate unexpected situations in a business strategy role: Scenario Planning: Develop alternative scenarios anticipating various outcomes. Assess risks and create contingency plans for each scenario to pivot swiftly if needed. Flexibility: Foster an agile mindset. Embrace change and be open to revising strategies when new information arises. Continuous Learning: Stay updated with industry trends, market shifts, and emerging technologies. Network and Collaboration: Build relationships across departments and industries. Collaborate with diverse teams. Resource Allocation: Having reserves or adaptable budgets can assist in redirecting efforts when necessary. Test Assumptions: Regularly validate assumptions through data analysis.

3 words: "Situational-Strategic-Structuring" We live and operate in a VUCA world, where everything is changing every minute. Every strategy will undergo scenario based changes i.e. adopting to situational needs. Every plan or project must be able to structure and restructure itself periodically. Having a plan B or C is great, but that may not work in many situations, hence the ability and agility to adapt and adopt changes is imperative. Impermanence-mindset is the key to success.

In this role, prepare for the unexpected by: - Embracing change - Conducting scenario planning - Staying informed about industry trends - Building a resilient team - Have a contingency plan - Have a proactive approach

Foresight and Futures development. Both these have a 10+ year horizon. Very few companies have futurists in-house to develop and plan for this. It is all like having an in-house Think Tank. If we need to plan to uncertainties, this is one of the best ways to do it.