Erudite Risk

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has called for swift completion of flood rehabilitation efforts ahead of the December plenary meeting of the ruling Workers' Party of Korea (WPK). During a visit to flood-damaged areas in North Phyongan Province on November 5, he stressed the urgency of accelerating recovery, following heavy rains and widespread flooding in late July that affected multiple provinces. Kim expressed a mix of concern and optimism, noting his "heavy heart" but also acknowledging progress in constructing new urban-style homes. He reiterated his commitment to finishing the rehabilitation campaign at the highest standard before the party meeting, which will evaluate the country's military and economic performance and set policy objectives for the following year. This marks Kim's third visit to flood recovery sites in North Phyongan and the fourth visit overall to affected areas since the disaster. His visits included several party officials and commanders involved in reconstruction, highlighting the initiative's significance in the regime's broader agenda. #AsiaRisk #NorthKorea #SouthKorea https://lnkd.in/gYyr9NzB Crisis Management Planning for an NK Crisis Get the Erudite Risk NK Crisis Toolkit https://lnkd.in/gSGK9_fS

Legal amendments are being proposed to address China's psychological warfare against Taiwan's military, as noted by DPP Legislator Wang Ting-yu. He highlighted that China is recruiting both current and former military personnel for espionage and efforts to weaken military morale. A key case involves former colonel Hsiang Te-en, who was lured into spying for China and accepted a monthly salary in exchange for a pledge of surrender. The Supreme Court issued prison sentences for Hsiang and his recruiter, retired lieutenant Shao Wei-chiang, for corruption and bribery, affirming that Hsiang’s actions violated his duty to national security. The Constitutional Court upheld that signing a pledge to support the Chinese government constitutes a legal breach, dismissing claims that it was a personal expression. Additionally, eight military officers are under investigation for leaking classified information to China since 2021. Allegations include recording surrender declarations and planning defecting via a Chinook helicopter. Recently, the Supreme Court imposed sentences of one and a half to thirteen years on these officers, emphasizing the serious national security threats they pose. Legislator Wang stated that such infiltration tactics aim to erode trust in Taiwan’s military, while DPP Legislator Puma Shen warned about the difficulty of regulating public sentiment without compromising freedom of speech. Proposals have emerged to limit funding to pro-China artists and celebrities to mitigate these influences. #AsiaRisk #GeopoliticalConflictandDisputes #Taiwan Get a full accounting of the security situation in Asia by subscribing to Security Asia. Subscribe now--free of charge--at https://lnkd.in/g7Cs8Gkf https://lnkd.in/ghvvji3F

South Korea's U.N. Ambassador Hwang Joon-kook condemned North Korea's recent intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch at a U.N. Security Council meeting, highlighting it as a result of insufficient enforcement of UNSC resolutions. He noted the successful test-firing of the new solid-fuel Hwasong-19 ICBM, which reportedly had a flight time of 86 minutes and reached an altitude of about 7,700 kilometers. Hwang expressed concerns that North Korea, an "impoverished pariah regime," continues to enhance its ballistic missile capabilities despite strict sanctions. He suggested that significant loopholes allow the North to acquire necessary equipment and technology for its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) program, calling it a "textbook case" of the consequences of non-compliance with UNSC resolutions. He also mentioned South Korea's prior attempt to update the list of prohibited items under the Nuclear Suppliers Group and the Missile Technology Control Regime to limit North Korea's WMD development. This proposal, however, failed due to opposition from two unnamed countries, likely Russia and China, which hold veto power in the Security Council. #AsiaRisk #NorthKorea #SouthKorea https://lnkd.in/gkXtfbYm Crisis Management Planning for an NK Crisis Get the Erudite Risk NK Crisis Toolkit https://lnkd.in/gSGK9_fS

The Supreme Court has requested explanations from the Delhi government and police about their failure to enforce the firecracker ban during Diwali celebrations. The court stressed the importance of this ban in reducing pollution, as evidence shows widespread firecracker use occurred despite it. Authorities must submit detailed reports on enforcement measures and future compliance proposals by November 14. The court emphasized the need for public awareness about the firecracker ban before Diwali and suggested a potential permanent prohibition. A report indicated a significant increase in particulate matter levels during Diwali, highlighting the violation of the firecracker ban. Additionally, there was a rise in farm fires in Punjab and Haryana, worsening the pollution issue, and the court requested immediate responses regarding these incidents. Beyond firecrackers, the court is addressing broader pollution concerns in Delhi, including waste burning and vehicular emissions. It has called for a progress report on colour-coded stickers for petrol and diesel vehicles, noting insufficient compliance. The bench also criticized the Union government's response to Punjab's proposal for additional funds to aid farmers in stubble management, urging a timely decision. #AsiaRisk #Regulation #India Get a full accounting of the security situation in Asia by subscribing to Security Asia. Subscribe now--free of charge--at https://lnkd.in/g7Cs8Gkf https://lnkd.in/gHQb-QD8

South Korea and the European Union condemned North Korea’s troop deployment to support Russia’s war in Ukraine, highlighting concerns over potential technology transfers that could enhance North Korea's nuclear and missile capabilities. Following a meeting in Seoul, South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul and EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell emphasized the serious implications for international non-proliferation and regional stability, labeling the deployment a violation of several U.N. Security Council resolutions. Although North Korea and Russia have not confirmed the troop deployment, the U.S. and NATO estimate that around 10,000 North Korean soldiers are in Russia’s Kursk region, preparing for combat. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged allies to respond to North Korea's military involvement, marking this potential large-scale engagement as a significant development since the Korean War, which could enhance military cooperation and defense capabilities. Concerns also arise regarding Russia potentially offering defense guarantees to North Korea amid rising tensions. South Korean officials worry that these troops may gain valuable combat experience and assistance in modernizing their conventional weapons. Kim Jong Un appears to be using the conflict to deepen ties with Russia while continuing missile tests, including intercontinental ballistic missiles aimed at the U.S. Moreover, North Korea's military activities near the border with South Korea indicate a shift towards increased militaristic posturing rather than reconciliation. #AsiaRisk #GeopoliticalConflictandDisputes #Japan Get a full accounting of the security situation in Asia by subscribing to Security Asia. Subscribe now--free of charge--at https://lnkd.in/g7Cs8Gkf https://lnkd.in/gVU8R5sr

As many as 10,000 North Korean troops are reportedly in Russia's Kursk region, potentially ready to engage in combat, raising concerns about their involvement in the Ukraine conflict. Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that the number has reached approximately 11,000. U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller noted that, while he couldn't confirm active combat, it is likely that North Korean soldiers will enter the fray against Ukrainian forces. Should this occur, they would be considered legitimate military targets. The Pentagon further supported this information, estimating a total of 11,000 to 12,000 North Korean service members in Russia. Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder mentioned the possibility of an increase in troop numbers and indicated that the Pentagon is investigating reports of North Korean troops actively participating in combat operations. In response, President Zelensky has urged the international community for heightened support to counter the infringement of North Korean forces. #AsiaRisk #NorthKorea #SouthKorea https://lnkd.in/gMkehhc5 Crisis Management Planning for an NK Crisis Get the Erudite Risk NK Crisis Toolkit https://lnkd.in/gSGK9_fS

In November, the Reserve Bank of India required banks to boost capital reserves for unsecured consumer credit amidst concerns about borrower repayment capability. This directive came during a period of rising borrowing costs and collection difficulties linked to federal elections held from April to June, resulting in increased loan delinquencies. By August, personal loan growth had decreased to 14 percent, down from over 30 percent the previous year. Ujjivan Small Finance Bank Ltd. and IIFL Finance Ltd. anticipate ongoing challenges in their upcoming earnings calls. The fallout is visible in the plummeting stock prices of microfinance lenders like Fusion Finance Ltd. and Spandana Sphoorty Financial Ltd., which have dropped over 60 percent this year, starkly contrasting the 15 percent gain in the BSE 500 index. Private lenders, including Arohan Financial Services Pvt., have also faced difficulties; the company has postponed its initial public offering due to an RBI directive that halted new loan approvals from certain high-interest shadow lenders. This decline in loan activity has dampened consumer demand for high-value purchases, particularly in the automotive sector, which has reported disappointing earnings. Major companies such as Hindustan Unilever and Avenue Supermarts have experienced falling share prices due to similar concerns following their second-quarter results. The overall consumption outlook has deteriorated due to a policy shift towards infrastructure-led growth, as noted by Madhavi Arora, chief economist at Emkay Global Financial Services. With rising defaults and stagnant urban wage growth, discretionary spending is expected to take a substantial hit. #AsiaOperations #FinancialSystemProblems #India Get a full accounting of the security situation in Asia by subscribing to Security Asia. Subscribe now--free of charge--at https://lnkd.in/g7Cs8Gkf https://lnkd.in/g3m9SZ4b

European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell underscored the need for robust support for Ukraine, including military aid, amid North Korea's troop deployments to Russia. His comments came as South Korea may shift from providing nonlethal to potential lethal aid to Ukraine, following reports of North Korea sending thousands of soldiers to assist Moscow. During his visit to Seoul, Borrell engaged in strategic discussions with South Korean officials, emphasizing a new security and defense partnership to address maritime security and cyber threats. He warned that the growing military ties between North Korea and Russia pose a significant threat to global security. With indications that North Korea has sent approximately 10,000 troops to Russia, Borrell highlighted the interconnected security issues in Europe and Asia. He called for a coordinated response and condemned Russia for breaching nonproliferation commitments. As he approaches the end of his term, Borrell aims to tackle the complexities of North Korea's involvement with Russia and its implications for regional security. #AsiaRisk #GeopoliticalConflictandDisputes #SouthKorea Get a full accounting of the security situation in Asia by subscribing to Security Asia. Subscribe now--free of charge--at https://lnkd.in/g7Cs8Gkf https://lnkd.in/gj2A6GWj

Security Council Discusses North Korea's ICBM Launch... North Korea "Accelerates Nuclear Forces" (Comprehensive) The United Nations Security Council convened on November 4, 2023, to address North Korea's recent launch of the Hwasong-19 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), which set new records for altitude and flight time and heightened regional security threats. In response, South Korea called for enhanced monitoring to ensure strict adherence to existing sanctions against North Korea, emphasizing the urgent need for better enforcement. South Korean Ambassador Hwang Joon-kook expressed worries that North Korea's actions might be an attempt to distract from its military activities in Russia or to gain diplomatic leverage ahead of the U.S. presidential election. He condemned North Korea's missile advancements as violations of multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions, noting that North Korea has conducted eleven ICBM launches since January 2021, including one capable of carrying larger or multiple warheads. Hwang questioned how North Korea, despite its economic hardships, managed to develop a diverse ballistic missile program, identifying significant gaps in the sanctions regime that enable the acquisition of materials and technology. He expressed concern about the dismantling of the U.N. expert panel on North Korean sanctions due to Russian opposition, warning of the broader implications for compliance with U.N. resolutions. In contrast, North Korean Ambassador Kim Song asserted that the ICBM launch did not threaten neighboring countries and denounced the Security Council's meeting as illegal. He reinforced North Korea's right to pursue nuclear weapons in response to perceived threats, stating that the country would continue to enhance its nuclear capabilities as a responsible nuclear power. #AsiaRisk #NorthKorea #SouthKorea https://lnkd.in/gxDaxR7i Crisis Management Planning for an NK Crisis Get the Erudite Risk NK Crisis Toolkit https://lnkd.in/gSGK9_fS

China is set to enhance its influence on global stability after the US presidential election, creating political and economic challenges for other nations. Key elections in democracies like the US, France, Italy, and the UK present opportunities for China to gain strategic advantage amid ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, which could heighten global inflation and disrupt supply chains, potentially affecting voter behavior. The alliance between China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea poses significant threats to the Indo-Pacific region, risking the prolongation of existing conflicts. This dynamic could divert Western democracies' attention, allowing Russia to expand aggressively while overshadowing other pressing global issues. China's military maneuvers in the Indo-Pacific are likely to escalate tensions for democratic nations. Domestically, China is grappling with sluggish demand post-COVID-19 and issues stemming from its nonmarket economic strategies, leading to an overproduction of goods in sectors like steel, electric vehicles, and petrochemicals. If China attempts to resolve its surplus by flooding international markets, it could adversely affect other countries' industries. The upcoming Double 11 shopping event may boost China's exports through e-commerce, with reduced shipping fees creating potential unfair competition. This situation could see China leveraging its manufacturing surplus to undermine global economic stability, prompting nations to impose higher tariffs on Chinese products to protect their economies. #AsiaRisk #GeopoliticalConflictandDisputes #Taiwan Get a full accounting of the security situation in Asia by subscribing to Security Asia. Subscribe now--free of charge--at https://lnkd.in/g7Cs8Gkf https://lnkd.in/gNS4QUc8