Hinrich Foundation

Hinrich Foundation Research Fellow Alex Capri’s new book, Techno-Nationalism: How It’s Reshaping Trade, Geopolitics, and Society, draws largely from Capri’s years of research commissioned by us on these themes. Join us & NUS Business School for a book launch on Nov 7: https://buff.ly/4eNPGp4

On October 24, the Hinrich Foundation and IMD held a launch event for the 2024 Sustainable Trade Index (STI), with experts discussing how industrial policy impacts resilience in global trade. Moderated by Chuin Wei Yap, the session brought together experts Christos Cabolis, Simon Evenett, and Deborah Elms. Here are some key takeaways: 1. A growing alignment between industrial policy and resilience The rollout of trade-distorting industrial policies has surged over the past decade. Christos Cabolis emphasized that resilience in green energy demands foresight from both public and business decision-makers. 2. Learning lessons from the past Simon Evenett highlighted the importance of setting clear policy goals based on lessons from past policies. 3. Identifying trade-offs Deborah Elms pointed out the necessity of recognizing trade-offs when implementing industrial policies. 4. Subsidies and overcapacity Panelists noted that data-driven approaches are important for policy design and that some measurements are captured in the STI. Watch the recap for more insights: https://buff.ly/4fkJncv

The Hinrich-IMD Sustainable Trade Index evaluates 30 trading economies against 72 measures covering economic, societal, and environmental policies. We asked Visual Capitalist to illustrate some of the key findings from this year’s rankings. Download the graphic: https://buff.ly/4ffctKm

In response to growing perceptions of containment, China is employing a set of economic engagement strategies that resemble guerrilla tactics to strengthen its global standing. Read more in our latest discussion guide based on a paper by Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS): https://buff.ly/4fgbidm

Together with the New Zealand High Commission, we recently hosted Vangelis Vitalis, Deputy Secretary of New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs & Trade at a closed-door roundtable on the imperative of repairing #multilateralism and a wide range of #tradepolicy issues. Check out some photos here: https://buff.ly/40aWKaW

It is estimated that #Africa accounts for about 7% of China’s overseas direct investment projects, but closer scrutiny suggests this may be significantly overstated. Senior Research Fellow Stewart Paterson uncovers in a parsing of #fDi Markets #data: https://buff.ly/40aeYt7 Also read: China's #BeltandRoad Initiative is a cornerstone of Beijing's path to 'national rejuvenation'. How effective has the initiative been in helping China achieve its strategic goals? Stewart Paterson assesses: https://buff.ly/48cQb9P Don't miss: Africa's capacity to determine its own ascent in the world order has been overlooked for far too long. But this is changing rapidly. Keith Rockwell surveys the confluence of factors renewing Africa's clout in #globaltrade and #geopolitics: https://buff.ly/40wVuiD

1/ Changes in #India’s approach toward #FDI are bearing fruit and may bear more in the future as global #supplychains continue to reconfigure. To attract more investors, India must further open its economy, Michael Enright writes: https://buff.ly/3BMLver 2/ Some key discussion points: India has long had a complex relationship with FDI given a colonial past that resulted in skepticism about the benefits of foreign investment. After decades of being mostly closed to foreign investments, India began to open its economy in 1991. See Figure 1: https://buff.ly/4dVaOs8 3/ FDI inflows in India grew from US$15 billion for the 1990-1999 period to US$161 billion for 2000-2009 and US$372 billion for 2010-2019. The #GDP impact of foreign affiliates in India went from 10.5% of GDP in 2010 to 21.8% of a much larger GDP in 2021. See Figure 2: https://buff.ly/3YymKf9 4/ Despite these increases, India still lags behind most other countries when it comes to the FDI intensity of its economy, with an FDI stock-to-GDP ratio of only a third of the median economy in the @UNCTAD FDI database, and an FDI intensity rank of 179 of 199 economies in 2022. See Figure 3: https://buff.ly/3Ywm61v 5/ In the past decade, the impact on India’s GDP of US affiliates operating in India has been as much as 250 times the annual FDI inflow from the US. The impact of all foreign investment has ranged from 6 times to more than 15 times the annual FDI inflow. See Figure 8: https://buff.ly/4e1TilX 6/ In addition to improving its business operating environment, India must continue to develop its physical #infrastructure and #workforce capabilities to draw in and retain both local and foreign #investments. Also, read this paper by Vasuki Shastry: https://buff.ly/4fclFz3

Today, we mark the launch of the 2024 Hinrich-IMD #SustainableTrade Index. This year's edition emphasizes the importance of building #resilience in economic, human, and #naturalresources in a new era of #industrialpolicy and trade fragmentation. Download: https://buff.ly/4f9tHsl

The #EU presses ahead with its plan to raise #tariffs on Chinese #EVs after a divided vote. Meanwhile, companies are struggling to maintain #subseacables in the geopolitically sensitive #SouthChinaSea. See what we've been reading on these topics and more: https://buff.ly/4f9vNbW #readinglist

Industrial policy is making a comeback in full force as nations race to seek #geopolitical security. But will the successes of industrial policy, rather than its failure, result in the undoing of resilient #development? Hear from our experts on Oct 24: https://bit.ly/4h6qiwd