Explained: Why Bibi’s in a bit of jam in West Asia

medium nocaption112145095Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah are threatening to boil over into open war after a rocket strike last weekend killed 12 children in Israeli-controlled Golan Heights. The attack was on the Druze Arab town of Majdal Shams. Tel Aviv has blamed the Iran-backed Lebanese militia, Hezbollah, for the attack. The latter, however, denies any involvement. All eyes are now on Israel’s response. But Tel Aviv finds itself in a complicated position where regional militias have been using asymmetric tactics to bleed Israel with a million cuts. Here’s the latest low-down on the West Asian crisis and why Israel’s superior military is finding it challenging to rebuff the attacks. Why is Hezbollah attacking Israel? Hezbollah has been firing rockets into northern Israel since the beginning of the Israeli military operation in Gaza in Oct last year, in solidarity with Hamas and Palestinians. But these strikes have been below a certain threshold, containing the exchanges along the Israel-Lebanon border. So far, these skirmishes have resulted in 24 civilian and 18 military deaths on the Israeli side, while Hezbollah has listed 383 of its members as having perished from Israeli strikes. Additionally, dozens of civilians and a Lebanese soldier have been killed in Lebanon. Will Israeli forces undertake a ground operation in southern Lebanon?They may – this is what Israeli hawks are demanding – but it will be a big risk for Tel Aviv. Hezbollah is not Hamas. It is a far superior fighting force. The last time Israel and Hezbollah had an open conflict was in 2006 when the militia conducted raids into northern Israel, provoking an Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) ground invasion of southern Lebanon. That didn’t exactly turn out well for Israel. Around 165 Israelis were killed and a couple of IDF soldiers were even captured by Hezbollah. The militant group is believed to be much stronger today. Plus, with the conflict in Gaza ongoing, Tel Aviv will be wary of being dragged into a two-front war after nine months of continuous military hostilities. Can’t Israel take out the militias in one go?Highly unlikely. Although Israel has the most technologically advanced military in West Asia, this is asymmetric warfare with simultaneous impact across multiple domains. Hezbollah, Hamas and the Yemeni Houthis – part of Iran’s Axis of Resistance – have twigged on to the fact that direct conflict with IDF will be to their disadvantage. However, small-scale but continuous rocket attacks on Israel will seriously stretch IDF resources and even test Israel’s famed Iron Dome missile defence system. This is precisely the kind of strikes that Hezbollah (northern Israel), Hamas (southern Israel), and Houthis (Red Sea) have been carrying out. And Israel doesn’t have a clear solution for this without risking a catastrophic all-out regional war. What has been the impact of the militias’ strategy? There have been multiple impacts for Israeli economy, military and polity. Economy-wise, the conflict is draining Israel. In May, the governor of Bank of Israel estimated that the Gaza war will incur Israel around $67bn in defence and civilian costs between 2023 and 2025. He also predicted that the future security budget for Israel will grow permanently with a macroeconomic impact. This is a huge drag on Israel’s high-tech economy. In northern Israel, Hezbollah rocket fire has forced the evacuation of tens of thousands of civilians across scores of border towns, bringing local industry to a standstill. Thus, the militias’ asymmetric rocket attacks are having the same cumulative economic and psychological impact as large-scale strikes. The militias’ short-range rockets cost just hundreds of dollars while the longer-range ones are in the low thousands of dollars. But Iron Dome interceptors are estimated to be $50,000 to $100,000 each. Politically, the Gaza war has led to domestic turmoil with sharp polarisation of opinion on its future course. This is best exemplified by the recent storming of Israeli military bases by far-right protesters objecting to the arrest of Israeli reservists suspected of abusing a Hamas prisoner. There’s also massive public disagreements over how best to bring back Israeli hostages from Gaza and end the conflict. Have the militias turned the tables on Israel?Looks like it. By carrying out an asymmetric strategy, they have constrained Israel. The Israeli economy is taking a huge hit. Tel Aviv is second-guessing attacking southern Lebanon because it could lead to another Arab-Israeli rupture after Israel invested so much in a normalisation process with Arab states. The outcry over the humanitarian crisis engendered by the Gaza war is growing louder. And the International Court of Justice is hearing a genocide case against Israel. All bad signs for Tel Aviv.