ABP Invest Limited

For those who watched the Presidential Debate last night, I did chuckle when Trump mentioned Viktor Orban - who has been on the front page of our Q3 Quarterly Outlook. With Merkel long gone and Macron on the way out, has Kissinger finally found his man...? Slightly facetious, but worth a smile after a long night..... #ABPInvest #Connecting #Geopolitics #Economics #Markets

Great chatting with Chery this morning and discussing the path for the Fed. #ABPInvest has been hugely contrarian to the market view over the past 12 months; let's see if our paths align for the rest of this year.... #ABPInvest #Connecting #Geopolitics #Economics #Markets.

Amidst the recent 'mini-meltdown' we decided to close our Positive/Long VIX outlook on 5th August. We shared our outlook with our clients and pulled the trigger at 53.07%, not expecting it to reach the previous highs of 76.45% when we closed our prior Long VIX view amidst the Covid crisis. Since last Monday volatility has come off the highs, back to below 20%. Reach out for our thoughts from here...

Over the past few months not only we adjusted our probability scenarios for the US economy and the risk of recession, but we probably won the ‘title of the month’ for our article on US unemployment published 3rd June in our Monthly Insight. Couldn’t have been more timely… Reach out for a chat. #ABPInvest #Connecting #Geopolitics #Economics #Markets

Just realized I forgot to share last week's discussion with Carolin on the Tech correction. Very timely ahead of our Equity scorecard meetings tomorrow... #ABPInvest Connecting #Geopolitics #Economics #Markets

The Mexican peso is 10% weaker from its recent highs due to the elections over the weekend.... Our ABP Invest process downgraded the MXN last November, is it time to consider an upgrade...?? Reach out for a chat... always happy to discuss! Connecting - #Geopolitics #Economics #Markets

This has been the third time we are Positive Dr. Copper over the last 5 years… Last time our process captured a 93% appreciation given our concerns on inflation, which we expressed through a positive outlook on commodities and a negative outlook on bonds. But now, do we maintain our Positive outlook given the significant rally on expectation of a global recovery, or is everything already in the price?  Reach out for a chat and exchange of views….  Connecting #Geopolitics #Economics #Markets

We just finished our monthly scorecard meetings for equities, fixed income and currencies. Having captured the Fed, BoJ and SNB policies perfectly thus far, reach out for our views on the ECB and BoE! Connecting #Geopolitics #Economics #Markets #FX (picture caption below from SNB.ch)

Always a pleasure being invited to the show and chatting with Steve and Arabile! Our previous interview at the end of December (you can see it in the Post below) proved to be quite prescient as we disagreed with the market's expectations of 150-175bps Fed cuts in 2024 and with the first cut as early as March.... it wasn't necessary and could trigger a huge policy mistake! Anyway, the discussion was about the Fed, US economic outlook and the risk of policy mistakes. We also mentioned the ECB and off camera talked about the forthcoming half and full marathons as well as cold water swimming... Reach out for a chat on #Geopolitics #Economics #Markets #FX

Always a pleasure chatting with Karen on CNBC Squawk Box between the Years. Our discussion centred around market expectations on the Fed for 2024 and whether that changes our Positive outlook on Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary sectors which have performed very strongly since we turned Positive in February. We also shared some thoughts on Inflation, but didn't have time to expand on our outlook on Fixed Income which has been Positive USTs since a year ago and Positive Bunds and Gilts since July. Happy to discuss offline...