CEPR - Centre for Economic Policy Research

🗳️Election integrity is a cornerstone of #democracy. 📨In the #US, voters who move will often have active registrations in more than one state, opening up the possibility that they can choose where to vote. This raises fairness concerns. ⭐This column uses the universe of US voters in 2020 to measure the number of double-registered individuals and their characteristics. 👉Double registrants respond to cross-state strategic incentives and costs. They disproportionately choose to vote in swing states and in states which automatically send out mail-in ballots. Vox column by: Gordon Dahl (UC San Diego, Norges Handelshøyskole (NHH)), Joseph Engelberg (University of California, San Diego - Rady School of Management), Runjing Lu (University of Toronto), William Mullins (UC San Diego) Read more here: https://ow.ly/B7NO50TVl8T #USelection2024

🏅Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson of MIT together with James Robinson of the University of Chicago have been awarded the 2024 #NobelPrize in Economic Sciences “for studies of how #institutions are formed and affect prosperity”. ⭐This column, written by a former student and now fellow scholar, outlines how their research shines a light on the pivotal role of a society’s institutions in shaping its long-run economic prosperity. 💭The theories they developed on institutional persistence and change have both enriched their own empirical research and laid the groundwork for extensive literatures, reshaping how economists think about global economic disparities. 👨🏫Equally significant is the mentorship they have provided to numerous students, colleagues and collaborators, leaving an enduring and highly influential legacy in the discipline. Vox column by: Melissa Dell (Harvard University) Read more here: https://ow.ly/rOaJ50TVksH

❓There is large uncertainty around the economic effects a second Trump term would have. ⭐This column assesses the potential implications of Trump winning the upcoming #election through the lens of financial market participants. 👉The authors find that investors associate a higher likelihood of Trump winning with adverse supply-side effects on net. 📊In the #US, an increase in the prospects of a Trump victory on betting markets is associated with lower stock prices, higher interest rates, and higher market-based #inflation compensation. 📈These inflationary pressures are mirrored on the other side of the Atlantic by an increase in euro area inflation compensations. Vox column by: Sören Karau & Johannes Fischer (Deutsche Bundesbank) Read more here: https://ow.ly/41HZ50TUese #USelection2024

👨👦The transmission of #poverty across generations is a long-standing concern for national and EU-wide anti-poverty strategies. ⭐This column uses retrospective data for 30 European countries to compare the strength of the association between growing up in poverty and the risk of current poverty. 👉Countries differ in the strength of this relationship: Scandinavian countries have low #intergenerational poverty association, whereas Romania and Bulgaria have the highest. 💸It also finds a positive relationship between intergenerational poverty persistence and parental poverty levels, which can exacerbate the reproduction of poverty across generations. Vox column by: Michele Bavaro, Rafael Carranza, Brian Nolan (University of Oxford) Read more here: https://ow.ly/tUn650TUe61

🏛️#Populism poses significant economic risks, often undermining long-term #growth for short-term political gains. ⭐This column uses the example of the cancellation of #Mexico City’s New International Airport in 2018 to exemplify how impulsive policy decisions can trigger #uncertainty, deter #investment, and lead to economic downturns. 👉Guillermo Woo-Mora (Paris School of Economics) finds that the cancellation led to a 3% depreciation of the peso and an estimated GDP loss of $68 billion within a year. ⚖️The findings highlight the importance of maintaining institutional checks and upholding the rule of law, even when populist actions are framed as being for the ‘common good’. Read more here: https://ow.ly/hwMy50TUcKa

😕During the past decade, subdued #wage growth and a faulty Phillips curve have puzzled economists. ⭐This column proposes an explanation: involuntary temporary workers have exerted significant competitive pressure on permanent workers, slowing overall wage growth. 👉Using data from 30 European countries over the period 2004 to 2017, the authors incorporate temporary employment into the standard wage Phillips curve. 💭Their findings reveal a competition effect that is comparable in magnitude to that of the unemployment rate, particularly in countries with weak wage-setting institutions. Vox column by: Lukas Lehner (The University of Edinburgh), Paul Ramskogler & Aleksandra Riedl (OENB) Read more here: https://ow.ly/lhRK50TUcyX

Looking forward to today's online discussion organised by the CEPR #CompetitionPolicy RPN on 'New European Commission, New Mission: "Modernizing Competition Policy"- How?'. With our panel of experts: Benoît Coeuré, President, French Autorité de la concurrence Jan De Loecker (KU Leuven & CEPR); Nils Redeker (Jacques Delors Centre ), Sander Tordoir (Centre for European Reform), Cristina Caffarra (UCL) Tomaso Duso ( DIW Berlin - German Institute for Economic Research , Technical University of Berlin & CEPR), Tommaso Valletti, (Imperial College Business School & CEPR) and Alexandra Geese, Member of European Parliament, The Greens Register now: https://lnkd.in/eRhpd-ey

🤖While distance may seem unimportant in the face of technological progress in transportation and communication, several studies have found that distance is a barrier to the diffusion of inventive activity and #technology adoption. ⭐This column examines #US firms’ adaptation and adoption of artificial intelligence in response to #AI innovation. 👉The authors find that distance from #innovation hotspots reduces growth in AI research jobs as well as in jobs adapting AI to new industries, with the effect driven by AI publications rather than AI patents. ⛔Twenty percent of the overall distance effect is explained by the presence of state borders, which may impede migration and thus flows of tacit knowledge. Vox column by: Jennifer Hunt (Rutgers University), Iain Cockburn & James Bessen (Boston University) Read more here: https://ow.ly/L5R850TT7oi

CEPR and the UBS Center for Economics in Society are delighted to host an upcoming event. 🕕18.00 - 21.00 CET, 14 Nov 2024 @ Università della Svizzera italiana or Online. Join us for our joint event with the Università della Svizzera italiana in Lugano as we explore the critical role corporate culture plays in both the triumphs and failures of businesses today. By combining insights from economic research and real-world practice, we’ll shed light on key questions such as: - Why is corporate culture so crucial? - How does corporate culture influence business performance, including firm value, risk-taking, and long-term success? - What are the mechanisms that create and sustain an effective corporate culture, and how can it be measured? Luigi Guiso (EIEF - Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance) will give the keynote lecture. This will be followed by a panel discussion and Q&A with Sergio Ermotti (UBS), Ernst Fehr (University of Zurich) & Luisa Lambertini (USI Università della Svizzera italiana). More information and register: https://ow.ly/122I50TTfUf

📈There has been a growing trend towards more disclosure by central banks on the currency denomination of their foreign exchange reserves. ⭐This column introduces a new comprehensive dataset on the currency composition of foreign exchange reserves of 64 economies from 1996 to 2023. 👉It shows that the #US dollar and the #euro remain the dominant global reserve currencies, but their significance has diminished in recent years. 💲It also finds a reshuffling on foreign exchange reserves following Russia’s war in #Ukraine, with Ukraine increasing US dollar reserves and #Russia increasing renminbi reserves. Vox column by: Falk Laser (ABC economics), Alexander Mihailov (University of Reading), Jan Weidner (Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz) Read more here: https://ow.ly/YMhs50TT6Sw