Macro Hive

In his latest podcast, Bilal Hafeez talks to Mirza Shaheryar Baig about best EM trades, Fed easing and China carry trade! Listen here: 🐝The Hive: https://lnkd.in/eC3cTPKn 🎧Apple: https://lnkd.in/eBk4sBGr

Check out our latest Key Events: Fed to Cut 25bp, BoE and BoJ to Hold G10 In the US, the main data points are: -Retail sales – Tuesday. With services spending growing faster than goods, retail sales have printed below consumption for the past couple of years. Therefore, the consensus forecast of 0.3% MoM for the retail sales control group is consistent with continued above trend consumption growth. Elsewhere, the main events will be: -UK inflation – Wednesday. While wage growth is slowing as expected, the BoE will want to see further progress on services inflation this month. -Canada inflation – Tuesday. Given the special mention by the BoC, pay attention to rents as well as the BoC’s preferred measures of core CPI-Trim and CPI-Median this month. 0.2% MoM is the breakeven to hit their YE 2024 forecast. -Japan inflation – Friday. Following a stronger JPY, more focus will be on services inflation that is expected to take the mantle from goods inflation going forward. Read full article here: https://lnkd.in/eTrzjtM7

In his latest podcast, Bilal Hafeez talks to Mirza Shaheryar Baig about best EM trades, Fed easing and China carry trade! Listen here: 🐝The Hive: https://lnkd.in/eC3cTPKn 🎧Apple: https://lnkd.in/eBk4sBGr

The Week Ahead: Taylor Swift vs Taylor Rule – Which Matters More for the Economy? Welcome to The Week Ahead! In this episode, Andrew Simon and Dominique Dwor-Frecaut discuss unemployment claims, next week’s Fed meeting, retail sales, and more! Watch full episode here: https://lnkd.in/eE9Ukq-z

In his latest Bloomberg interview, Bilal Hafeez gives his take on NFP, a 50bp Fed hike in September, recession signs, and more! Watch interview here: https://lnkd.in/e8fHjTQR

In his latest podcast, Bilal Hafeez talks to Doyne Farmer about making sense of chaos! Listen here: 🐝The Hive: https://lnkd.in/gMt9uHek 🎧Apple: https://lnkd.in/gKyNVP6t 📽YouTube: https://lnkd.in/gT7fWDW9

Check out our latest Key Events: Could Payrolls Prompt Fed Frontloading? G10 In the US, the main data points are: -NFP – Friday. If the print shows no marked improvement on July and is below consensus for UE falling to 4.2%, the Fed will likely frontload rate cuts, starting with 50bp in September. -JOLTS – Wednesday. The U/V ratio is more important than headline. Influential FOMC member Waller follows U/V closely; a further increase would add to risks of a 50bp cut in September. -ISM: Manu/services – Tuesday/Thursday. Consensus sees manufacturing at 47.5 vs 46.8 in July and services at 50.9 vs 51.4 in July. But these are more trading than economic events as the ISM surveys have decoupled from GDP growth – our Event Monitor reveals market impact. In the Eurozone and UK, it is a quiet week: -Final services PMIs – Wednesday. Could be the highlight in data releases. Output price and employment cost details are informative; headline readings less so. Read full article here: https://lnkd.in/eeCv5qA9

The Week Ahead: Is Waller's View Winning? Welcome to The Week Ahead! In this episode, Andrew Simon and Dominique Dwor-Frecaut discuss Dominique's expectations for additional 2024 Fed cuts, Fed speakers, NFP, and more! Watch full episode here: https://lnkd.in/eKzizcnv

Check out our latest Weekly Futures Momentum Model: Models Return to Black Led by Equity and FX Summary -Momentum models were up 0.4% over the past week, with equity models up 0.8% WoW, FX models up 0.5% WoW and rates models down 0.1% WoW. -Momentum models are all down over a three-month timeframe, with FX models the best performing (-1.2%). Market Implications -Momentum models are bearish USD to varying degrees across various pairs – we think USD is due a near-term bounce and express the view through a USD/CHF call spread. Read full article here: https://lnkd.in/g2JS6PvH

In his latest podcast, Bilal Hafeez talks to Doyne Farmer about making sense of chaos! Listen here: 🐝The Hive: https://lnkd.in/gMt9uHek 🎧Apple: https://lnkd.in/gKyNVP6t 📽YouTube: https://lnkd.in/gT7fWDW9