MetDesk Limited

It's LIVE. We’re excited to announce that the European Fortnight Trader Briefing has received a revamp- just in time for winter! We know time is of the essence when it comes to trading. That's why we’ve streamlined the format to ensure that you get the most relevant key information as efficiently as possible. 💫 Why You’ll Love the New Format: ✓ Cleaner layout: With a more streamlined design, it’s now quicker and easier to digest the essential information. ✓ Focus on critical risks: We’re honing in on what matters most, providing a clear idea on key risks and directional change, a frequent request from our clients! ✓ Less is more: By removing repetitive content, we’ve distilled the briefing to its most valuable elements- saving you time without sacrificing insight. ✓ Faster read time: You’ll now spend an average of just 2 minutes on what used to take 5, helping you stay informed without slowing down your day. Get a free 2 week trial now: https://lnkd.in/e6dCrWKC

Today, we announce 21 DAY AI FORECASTS for energy traders. This enhancement offers even more robust insights, bridging the gap between 15 day conventional forecast models and sub-seasonal models. 🌟 Key Highlights: ✅ 6 Extra Days of forecast coverage ✅ Updated 4x daily ✅ Enhanced Accuracy with minimal degradation between 15 to 21 days ✅ Verification comparable to GFS ENS Available for Country Weighted Forecasts, Wind & Solar Power and Forecast Maps. Come find us at ETW Americas on Tue 29 & Wed 30 for additional information: https://lnkd.in/dyZm6-XA

Great turnout at the MetDesk Winter Forecast Symposium in person and online this evening! Thank you to everyone for joining!

In our most recent Trading Weather blog, we assess the latest teleconnection signals and seasonal forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology, for the balance of Q4. Precipitation and temperature have been considered, as well as the tropical storm risk and expectations for the 2024/25 season (which typically spans November to April). We then link this detail to the potential risks/threats to coal and LNG infrastructure within Australia during Q4. As an example of discussion, given the warm sea surface temperatures (left image) to the north/north-western Australia, there is an increased risk of more intense cyclones there. Given cyclones typically arrive to the north/northwest (right), perhaps there is an increased risk of LNG terminal disruption from cyclones this season in northern AUS, despite the fact overall a near normal number of cyclones is preferred. Please see our latest Trading Weather blog for more details and discussion.

The rapid advancement of AI is transforming the world of weather forecasting. Today, AI models are not only catching up to the decades-old physical models but, in many cases, are proving just as accurate. However, what are the true strengths and limitations of these AI-driven models? And how will they shape the future of the energy sector? These are some of the key topics Florian Pappenberger will explore at MetDesk's Winter Forecast Symposium this Wednesday. With over 600 attendees already registered, this event is set to be a must-watch for anyone in the industry. Don't miss out- register now and gain access to the full recording! https://lnkd.in/eSzjq_pG

Hurricane Milton explosively intensified into a Cat5 system (highest on the scale) Mon 7th Oct in the SW Gulf Of Mexico (GOM). This is the first time a Cat5 system has formed in the GOM and made U.S. landfall. It is forecast to track NE’wards, making landfall close to Tampa Bay, Florida late on Wed 9th local time as a Cat 4, with potentially catastrophic impacts – high storm surge, flooding and damaging winds. However, we are expecting minimal disruption to oil and LNG terminals and refineries, as well as gas/oil rigs, with Milton tracking across the southern and eastern Gulf – but some impacts to shipping. The remnants of Milton will then move into the North Atlantic and weaken, but could still have some influence on patterns across Europe early in week 42 (w/b 14th Oct). Today's Trading Weather blog takes a look at the latest situation and forecast, as well as energy implications, in more detail.

See you in 3 weeks, Houston! MetDesk are returning to Energy Trading Week, and we can't wait to showcase what we've been developing- • NEW hydro-specific CWG forecasts, taking our total to 129 countries and regions, globally. • 21 day AI country and power forecasts- COMING VERY SOON • EC AIFS Forecast Maps Drop by the stand, and hear our latest thoughts on the forecast for the US this winter. Book a meeting ahead of time: https://lnkd.in/eM4kNfNk

California and the Desert Southwest of the United States are gripped by a late-season heatwave at present, with maximum temperatures of 41-43°C (106-109°F) in Phoenix, Arizona over the next few days (8-10°C/ 14-18°F above average), and temps into the low-30s Celsius (~86-92°F) as far west as San Francisco. In fact, sub-seasonal models all support a very warm and dry October across large parts of western North America. Could this be the hottest October ever in the region?

Today represents a significant date in the diary for us. The 1st of October sees us mobilise an extensive range of bespoke winter forecast services, all supported by our expert team who available 24/7 providing critical support for a range of transport modes.