Modo Energy

By 2035, 18 million electric vehicles will account for 15% of total overnight power demand - and during winter peaks, heat pumps will increase demand by up to 25%. But what impact will this extra demand have on power prices, and the spreads available to grid-scale BESS? On Tuesday we held a livestream to run through the impacts of the updated demand modelling in version 3.2 of the GB forecast. In case you missed it, a recording is available on the platform, along with answers to all of your questions: https://lnkd.in/ezhi8rtS

The energy system in the Netherlands is confronting major challenges, particularly with high grid congestion and rising grid fees. With an impressive amount of renewables buildout in the pipeline, the country has ambitious plans for a clean energy future, however a lack of subsidies for standalone storage projects means the investment case for battery energy storage is complicated Is colocation the key? What does the power system and the outlook for storage look like in The Netherlands? In this week’s episode, Rens Savenije, Business Lead System Integration for wind and solar at Ventolines, joins Quentin 'Q' Scrimshire to discuss the Dutch energy market. Over the course of the conversation, they discuss: ▶ Dutch power market dynamics, from peak demand in the Netherlands to interconnection with other countries. ▶ The rapid growth of solar energy in the Netherlands and the challenges posed by grid congestion. ▶ Current state of grid-scale battery projects in the Netherlands and the outlook for future buildout. ▶ The impact of grid fees in the Netherlands and what this means for standalone battery projects. ▶ The potential for co-located projects with wind and solar to optimize grid connections. ▶ Investment opportunities for storage in the Dutch market. You can listen to this episode - and every previous episode of Transmission - on your favourite podcast app, or via the link in the comments below.

In September, the highest-earning battery earned 10 times more than any other system from negative-priced energy imports. Wishaw was the highest-earning battery in Great Britain in September, earning 33% more than average for a two-hour battery. While other high-earning batteries followed a Dynamic Regulation High strategy, Wishaw focused on Balancing Mechanism imports. These imports helped it achieve larger trading spreads than were available on the wholesale market. On September 14th, Wishaw earned triple the daily average, as it was dispatched for negatively priced Balancing Mechanism Bids. Modo Energy subscribers can read the full article to find out more about why this strategy was effective in September. https://lnkd.in/eeGiTJVV #BatteryEnergyStorage #BalancingMechanism #NetZero

After the lows of winter 2023/24, does the latest winter outlook for 2024/25 suggest grid conditions could lead to higher battery revenues? Last week, NESO released its latest Winter Outlook, providing a view of the expected generation and demand in Great Britain between November 2024 and March 2025. The margin between de-rated generating capacity and demand is expected to be 5.2 GW - 8.8% of total demand. This is an increase from the 4.4 GW that was expected for winter 2023/24. The daily surplus for winter 2024/25 is forecast to be 9% higher than last year, with a 29% increase in early November. NESO’s confidence bound is also 23% higher. Last winter, surplus fell below the confidence bound on 14 separate days. This was due to lower-than-expected wind generation, nuclear outages, interconnector outages, and increased demand during cold weather. Gas, carbon and power prices are expected to be higher in Great Britain than in Europe. This means Great Britain will be a net importer throughout winter. Carbon prices are projected to be 17% higher in winter 2024/25 than in winter 2023/24, and gas prices are forecast to be 15% higher. While overall capacity and demand remain similar to last winter, Great Britain will see a greater reliance on wind generation and interconnectors. Reliance on these technology types could lead to greater spreads this winter. To find out more about how grid conditions could lead to greater wholesale spreads this winter and how this would impact battery revenues, read the full article here - https://lnkd.in/eUv3Qsba

What effect could electric vehicles, V2G, and heat pumps have on demand? Just one more day until you can find out about this and more updates to our BESS revenue forecast in our latest live stream. Robyn Lucas and Joseph Bush will talk you through what's been updated in our Great Britain Forecast for Q4 2024, including: - Future-proofed demand with advanced modelling of Electric Vehicles, V2G and heat pumps. - Updates to market conditions with new Capacity Market derating factors, commodity price outlooks and Balancing Mechanism dispatch rates. - As well as refreshed wind, gas and battery buildouts. You can also have your questions answered in the live Q&A. Register your interest here - https://lu.ma/nf7m6kbt

How can smaller home batteries combine forces to contribute during times of high demand? The answer lies in virtual power plants (VPPs). These interconnected networks of residential storage systems work together to provide energy back to the grid when needed. Not only can VPPs support grid stability, but they also create potential revenue streams for participating homeowners by compensating them for their stored energy. Geoff Ferrell, Senior Vice President of Global C&I and VPP Project Business in the Americas at sonnen, Inc., joins Quentin 'Q' Scrimshire for this week’s episode. Over the course of the conversation, they discuss: ▶ sonnen’s role in pioneering residential energy storage and the company’s growth and market presence. ▶ What Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) are and their crucial role in balancing and optimizing energy for a smarter grid. ▶ How virtual power plants enable market participation and unlock new opportunities for residential batteries. ▶ The importance of metering and accurate energy data for market participation. You can listen to this episode - and every previous episode of Transmission - on your favourite podcast app, or via the link in the comments below.

Version 3.2 of the Modo Energy Battery Revenue forecast for Great Britain has just been released, introducing new demand modelling for electric vehicles and heat pumps. We’ve also updated our modelling of batteries above 300 MW, and refreshed commodity prices and Capacity Market de-rating factors. We are hosting a livestream next Tuesday to look at these changes in more detail and answer your questions. Read more about the changes and sign up here: https://lnkd.in/e-wWaniQ

In 2023, distribution network operators (DNOs) contracted a record 3.2 GW of capacity into local flexibility services, but are these services suitable for grid-scale BESS? Flexibility services allow DNOs to manage constraints on the distribution network. Participants can be dispatched to reduce demand or increase supply during constrained periods - reducing network flows and the need for physical reinforcement. While the market is fragmented across the 6 different DNOs in Great Britain, the types of products offered are becoming more standardized. Three general types of service are available: Peak reduction, Scheduled Availability & Operational Utilization, and Operational Utilization. Operational Utilization is the only service likely to be utilized by grid-scale batteries. It provides access to potentially high utilization fees, without limiting trading flexibility. Functionally, this market acts similarly to the Balancing Mechanism on a local level. Providers submit demand turn-down or generation turn-up prices to an exchange and can be notified by the DNO up to 2 minutes ahead of dispatch. However, volumes in these markets are low and highly localized. In the National Grid Electricity Distribution DNO, assets were dispatched for an average of just 3 hours across the 2023 reporting year. Despite this, two grid-scale batteries have pre-qualified to participate in these services, and as these markets grow, the size of the opportunity could increase. To read more about these markets, head to the article: https://lnkd.in/e8gH5qQb

Want to find out about the latest updates in our Great Britain Forecast for Q4 2024? Join Robyn Lucas and Joseph Bush in a livestream on Tuesday 15th October, to learn about updates, including: - Future-proofed demand with advanced modelling of EVs, V2G and heat pumps - Updates to market conditions with new Capacity Market derating factors, commodity price outlooks and Balancing Mechanism dispatch rates - Refreshed wind, gas and battery buildouts This will then be followed by a live Q&A. Register your interest here - https://lu.ma/nf7m6kbt Hope to see you there.

Battery energy storage revenues in Great Britain reduced by 14% in September to £48k/MW/year. This makes it the fourth-highest revenue-generating month in 2024 so far. The reduction was driven by lower frequency response and Balancing Mechanism revenues. Despite a lower monthly revenue, on 10th September, batteries had their highest daily revenues since October 2023, generated through wholesale and Balancing Mechanism revenues. With higher gas and carbon prices and lower wind generation, power price spreads were lower but still the second-highest seen so far in 2024. Batteries also generated a higher proportion of revenue through negative prices in the Balancing Mechanism than in the wholesale markets. To find out more read the full article here - https://lnkd.in/e6VjtpRk