Gartner Predicts Android Will be Most Popular Mobile OS By End of 2011

Android enthusiasts, who have watched the open-source OS develop from a pipe dream into a major market force, will soon have more reason to rejoice, according to a study by Gartner. By the end of 2011, the study says, Android will have become the most popular mobile OS, expected to be running on 49.2% of all smartphones.

Android Predicted to Dominate Worldwide Emerging Markets

Gartner analyst Roberta Cozza predicts that the smartphone market will become “truly democratized”, due primarily to competition between manufacturers of Android-based devices. This competition will likely result in lower price stickers, with two-thirds of smartphones expected to be priced at $300 or less by 2015. The study further predicts that Android will find its highest volume niche in the low to medium price range, and particularly in emerging markets.

The same report forecasts that Apple’s iOS will hold second place from 2011 to 2014, after peaking in popularity this year. Research in Motion (RIM) is expected to lose market share over the same time period, even figuring in RIM’s expected changeover (in 2012) from BlackBerry OS to QNX, a more advanced OS, whose features  should allow for more competitive devices.

Microsoft’s Windows Phone 7 is expected to move up in standing to #3,  due to manufacturer Nokia’s decision to abandon its own Symbian OS in favor of  Windows.

Here are the rest of the numerical predictions from Gartner.  Are they on the money? Let us know your thoughts.

Table 1
Worldwide Mobile Communications Device Open OS Sales to End Users by OS (Thousands of Units)

 

OS	2010	2011	2012	2015
Symbian	111,577	89,930	32,666	661
Market Share (%)	37.6	19.2	5.2	0.1
Android	67,225	179,873	310,088	539,318
Market Share (%)	22.7	38.5	49.2	48.8
Research In Motion	47,452	62,600	79,335	122,864
Market Share (%)	16.0	13.4	12.6	11.1
iOS	46,598	90,560	118,848	189,924
Market Share (%)	15.7	19.4	18.9	17.2
Microsoft	12,378	26,346	68,156	215,998
Market Share (%)	4.2	5.6	10.8	19.5
Other Operating Systems	11,417.4	18,392.3	21,383.7	36,133.9
Market Share (%)	3.8	3.9	3.4	3.3
Total Market	296,647	467,701	630,476	1,104,898