A Trump victory could send bitcoin to $125,000, but new records are likely no matter who wins election, says Standard Chartered

Published Thu, Sep 12 202410:18 AM EDTUpdated Thu, Sep 12 202411:37 AM EDT

Bitcoin is likely to reach at least one more all-time high by the end of this year, according to Standard Chartered. That is likely regardless of whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump win the presidential election this November, a variable that others have viewed as a make-or-break game changer for the industry since Trump threw his public support behind the industry this summer. However, while each outcome would certainly have different effects on the cryptocurrency industry, the risks of a Harris presidency may be exaggerated and bitcoin as an investment should continue to do well regardless of who is in office, Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick said in a note Thursday. "BTC will end 2024 at fresh all-time highs under either election outcome — [circa] $125,000 level under Trump or c.$75,000 level under Harris," he said. "A Harris victory would likely trigger an initial price decline, but we would expect dips to be bought as the market recognizes that progress on the regulatory front will still be forthcoming, and as other positive drivers take hold." The firm maintains its view that bitcoin will reach the $200,000 level by the end of 2025, regardless of this year's election outcome. Bitcoin reached an all-time high above $73,000 in March and has drifted between $55,000 and $70,000 since. For the past few months, crypto has underperformed every major asset class and has shown no signs of relief. That is one reason so many are hoping the election could trigger some movement in bitcoin. Vice President Harris has not shared a public view on crypto but parts of the industry are concerned she is antagonistic to crypto and could carry over the hostility that startups have experienced throughout President Joe Biden's term in office, partly stemming from efforts by Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler that are thought to have held back the adoption of crypto. "While we agree that the outcome will matter for digital assets, we think it matters less than it did when Biden was the Democratic candidate, and less than markets expect," Kendrick said. "It seems clear that a Trump victory would be BTC-positive … [and] a Harris administration would be much less negative for digital assets than a second Biden administration would have been ." — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed reporting.