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Turkey

Erdogan’s empire

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Approaching its centenary, Turkey faces an election that could decide its future as a democracy, argues Piotr Zalewski

ISTANBUL, TURKIYE - NOVEMBER 10: Divers open Turkish flag with Ataturk's portrait under the sea during the 84th anniversary of his demise, in Dolmabahce Palace, Istanbul, Turkiye on November 10, 2022 as they float to the surface with the flag at 09:05 a.m., the death time of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, founder of the Republic of Turkiye. (Photo by Sebnem Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Turkey

Turkey faces a crucial election this summer

Approaching its centenary, the country prepares for an election that could decide its future as a democracy, argues Piotr Zalewski

On 28 December 2022, people went shopping in a street market in the Konyaalti district of Antalya, Turkey. Shoppers, merchants and small business owners have been adjusting to pressure from inflation and a weakening Turkish lira, resulting in higher consumer prices for food products and other goods. (Photo by Diego Cupolo/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

The economy

The Turkish economy is in pressing need of reform and repair

A bizarre monetary policy has left an economy in need of urgent repair

Berat Albayrak, Turkey's treasury and finance minster, gestures as he speaks during a news conference in Istanbul, Turkey, on Tuesday, Oct. 9, 2018. Albayrak called on retailers Tuesday to cut prices in an attempt to rein in price gains after they climbed last month to around their fastest level in more than 15 years. Photographer: Kostas Tsironis/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Friends and relations

Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s relatives are becoming increasingly powerful

A government over-reliant on kith and kin

TOPSHOT - Syrian refugees arrive at the Oncupinar crossing gate, close to the town of Kilis, south central Turkey, in order to cross to Syria for the Eid al-Adha Muslim holiday, on August 28, 2017.Turkish authorities allow Syrian refugees to visit their country for Eid-Al-Adha (Feast of the Sacrifice) celebrities. / AFP PHOTO / BULENT KILIC (Photo credit should read BULENT KILIC/AFP via Getty Images)

Syria

The effects on Turkey of Syria’s civil war  

The war has redrawn Turkey’s political map

2M0MKPG (221207) -- DOHA, Dec. 7, 2022 (Xinhua) -- Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (R) and Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi (L) shake hands on the sidelines of the 2022 World Cup in Doha, Qatar, Nov. 20, 2022. TO GO WITH News Analysis: T¨¹rkiye seeks to restore relations with Egypt, Syria (Turkish Presidential Office/Handout via Xinhua)

Political Islam

Turkey has given up promoting political Islam abroad

Recep Tayyip Erdogan is mending fences with his Arab neighbours

MANISA, TURKIYE - NOVEMBER 18: Turkish soldiers march during the graduation at Kirkagac Commando Training Central Command in Manisa, Turkiye on November 18, 2022. 1728 commandos graduated to be assigned to Gendarmerie and Coast Guard, and Naval Forces Command after their 26-week education. (Photo by Mehmet Emin Menguarslan/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Foreign policy

Turkey has a newly confrontational foreign policy

The country has turned into an awkward ally for the West

Turkey's main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu and the other opposition party leaders Ali Babacan of Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA), Gultekin Uysal of Democratic Party (DP), Ahmet Davutoglu of Gelecek (Future) Party, Meral Aksener of IYI (Good) Party, and Sabri Tekir deputy chairman of Saadet (Felecity) Party, pose with Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu during a rally to oppose the conviction and political ban of Imamoglu, a popular rival to Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the President of Turkey, in Istanbul, Turkey, December 15, 2022. REUTERS/Umit Bektas

Politics

The Turkish opposition faces big obstacles to winning the election

They remain rudderless

A woman displays a ballot paper as election officials count votes in a mayoral re-run at a polling station in Istanbul, on June 23, 2019. - Polls closed on June 23, in a replay of the mayoral election in Istanbul, with voters anxiously awaiting a verdict seen as crucial to the future of Turkish democracy and its long-ruling president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Republican People's Party (CHP) Ekrem Imamoglu was a little-known district mayor who caused a huge upset when he narrowly beat the ruling Justice and Development Party's (AKP) candidate Binali Yildirim in March. Election authorities annulled that result after the Turkish President claimed irregularities in the counting. (Photo by Bulent Kilic / AFP) (Photo credit should read BULENT KILIC/AFP via Getty Images)

The future

Turkey is still just a democracy, but it is not certain to remain that way

The election will test the country’s democratic credentials

Turkey

Sources and acknowledgments

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Italy

Renovation required

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Giorgia Meloni’s new government must make deep reforms if Italy is to regain its lost vitality, argues John Peet

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