According to the Office for National Statistics, as of March 2024, the UK unemployment rate stands at 4.3%, a significant decrease from 7.9% when the Conservatives assumed power in May 2010. Despite this improvement, the job market is struggling with several challenges. The rise of AI is transforming the nature of work daily, the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Israel are disrupting the global economy, and major high street names are facing administration. 

Both the Labour Party and the Conservative Party have outlined their plans for addressing these issues should they win in July, with potentially profound impacts on the job market. While the Labour Party promises to invest heavily in green technologies and renewable energy, aiming to create thousands of new jobs while reducing the country's carbon footprint, the Conservative Party is focusing on reducing corporate taxes and deregulating certain industries to stimulate economic growth. Labour is also planning to increase the minimum wage and strengthen workers' rights, which could improve job security and working conditions, but could also raise operational costs for businesses, potentially affecting their hiring capabilities. The Conservatives are also looking to invest in infrastructure projects, which could generate employment in construction and related sectors, but concerns raised suggest that such policies might lead to reduced funding for public services and increased economic inequality. 

As the election approaches, the two most likely candidates to win are Labour and Conservative. The contrasting approaches of these two parties highlight the critical link between political decisions and the health of the job market. In this article, we will explore how the two most likely parties to win the election could influence the job market, and what that means for job hunters and those looking to take the next step in their careers. 

How can political change impact the jobs market? 

Political change in any country can significantly impact the job market in various ways. Policy shifts, driven by changes in leadership or government priorities, can alter the economic landscape, influencing employment rates, job creation, and job security. Changes in government policies on taxation, trade, and regulation can create or eliminate jobs. For example, a government that prioritises reducing corporate taxes might incentivise businesses to expand, potentially increasing employment. Conversely, a shift towards higher corporate taxes or stricter regulations could lead to downsizing or relocation of businesses to more favourable environments. 

Political changes often bring new public spending priorities. For example, a government focusing on renewable energy might invest heavily in green technologies, creating jobs in that sector while potentially reducing employment in traditional energy industries like coal or oil. Infrastructure projects funded by the government can also create numerous construction and engineering jobs. Additionally, labour laws and workers' rights are subject to political influence. Changes in minimum wage laws, union regulations, and employment benefits can impact job availability and conditions. Enhanced workers' rights may improve job security and working conditions but might also increase costs for employers, potentially affecting hiring rates. 

It's also worth noting that, political instability or uncertainty can adversely affect the job market. Businesses tend to delay investment and hiring decisions in times of political upheaval, leading to stagnation or decline in job creation until stability is restored. It is important to note then, that the interplay between politics and the job market is complex and multifaceted, with significant implications for economic health and individual livelihoods. 

How the Conservatives might impact the job market 

The Conservative Party has outlined several key pledges aimed at stimulating economic growth and job creation. Here's a breakdown of their commitments and the potential impact on the job market: 

• Keeping inflation low – having now secured a lower, more normal inflation rate, the Conservatives are pledging to keep it that way. Doing so would not only stabilise the economy but could also encourage investment levels to rise again, consequentially also creating more jobs and offering business security. By successfully maintaining low inflation rates, businesses across every sector could be looking at a more secure future and one in which they can plan new and sustainable growth. 
   

• Cut tax for workers – the Conservatives are proposing to cut National Insurance by 2p meaning that it will have halved from 12% at the start of 2024 to 6% by April 2027, “a total tax cut of £1,350 for the average worker on £35,000”. They are also aiming to end the "double tax” on work as the economy adjusts, looking to abolish National Insurance completely. With their aim to lower labour costs, Conservatives are creating the right environment to see increasing hiring and a boost in disposable income for the workers themselves. 
   

• 30 hours of free childcare – by doubling the allocation of free childcare available, from the current 15 hours to 30, the Conservatives are set to boost the number of parents getting back to work while also making it easier for them to balance work and family life. To support this move, the party is heavily investing in the childcare sector and jobs will be created to support the increase in children benefiting from the increased childcare allowances. 
   

• Reinventing national service for 18-year-olds – designed to provide a new learning environment, this new national service will offer, “young people valuable life skills and build a stronger national culture”. While it will be a compulsory service, young people will be given the choice between civic or military service. This initiative will undoubtedly provide training and will help young people develop new skills, but the long-term benefits towards securing employment or longer-term career development are uncertain. 
   

• Increase NHS spending – the Conservatives are pledging to increase NHS spending above inflation every year, which will also mean, “recruiting 92,000 more nurses and 28,000 more doctors, driving up productivity in the NHS and moving care closer to people’s homes”.  The proposed new schemes aimed at bringing care closer to the patient will mean a host of new roles will be created, from roles implementing the infrastructure of schemes such as the ‘Community Diagnostic Centres’, through to the healthcare professionals outlined in this plan.  
   

• Pensioners protected with the Triple Lock – essentially this pledge is to help secure financial security for retirees. The newly proposed Triple Lock Plus means that the new state pension will continue to increase and, from April 2025, the personal allowance for pensioners will also increase with a new age-related personal allowance. This pledge may affect labour market participation rates, potentially freeing up job opportunities for younger workers. With the older workforce now more protected, it is anticipated that there will be an increase in these employees taking full retirement, leaving career progression opportunities for the generations below them. 
   

• Stop illegal immigration boats – this pledge is designed to address illegal immigration by making it clear to immigrants that if they are in Britain illegally, then they will not be allowed to stay. The impact of this policy may mean that more of our low-wage jobs become available for those looking for work by reducing competition from undocumented workers. This might mean that people looking for first jobs, or those looking for part-time, lower-commitment jobs have more opportunities freely available. 

• Raise defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030 – the promise of this “fully funded plan" is designed to “protect our security, cement our UK leadership in NATO and create more jobs in the UK." A commitment such as this would likely lead to hiring in defence manufacturing, research and development, as well as within the military services. Increased defence spending would boost employment in industries that produce military equipment, vehicles, and weapons systems, as well as benefit a wide range of suppliers and ancillary industries such as manufacturers of electronic components, construction firms involved in building military facilities, and providers of various logistical and operational support services.
   

How Labour might impact the job market 

The Labour Party has proposed a range of initiatives designed to enhance job security, promote sustainable industries, and improve working conditions. Here's a breakdown of their pledges and the potential impact on the job market: 

• Deliver a “genuine living wage” – Labour plan to increase the minimum wage with the intention of improving income for low-wage workers. The Labour manifesto states, “We will change the remit of the independent Low Pay Commission so for the first time it accounts for the cost of living. Labour will also remove the discriminatory age bands, so all adults are entitled to the same minimum wage, delivering a pay rise to hundreds of thousands of workers across the UK.” While this plan may help a number of people financially, it will also raise costs for businesses and ultimately may impact their hiring and scaling capacity. 
   

• Closing private education tax loopholes – while ending the VAT exemption and business rates relief for private schools is making some parents sweat at the thought of hiked fees, the redirected funds could enable the government to improve public schools, possibly leading to more jobs in education, enhancing the quality of schooling. Labour has pledged to recruit 6,500 new teachers to bolster the education system, as well as investing in more support staff. 
   

• Keeping children in school – In an attempt to tackle attendance levels, Labour has also pledged to provide access to specialist mental health professionals in every school. Alongside the plan for Young Futures Hubs, which are designed to “make sure every community has an open-access hub for children and young people with drop-in mental health support”, a number of healthcare jobs will be created to support the youngest members of society. 
   

• Free breakfast clubs – in another effort to tackle school attendance levels, the Labour Party are pledging to fund free breakfast clubs in “every primary school, accessible to all children.” Not only do these clubs improve attendance, but the scheme will also help support parents through the cost-of-living crisis. This initiative will create jobs in both education and childcare, while also supporting working parents, providing them more flexibility around their working hours. 
   

• Investing in the NHS – starting with an additional 8,500 mental healthcare professionals, Labour has laid out plans to deliver "an extra two million NHS operations, scans, and appointments every year; that is 40,000 more appointments every week.”  This initiative requires a significant increase in healthcare professionals, expanding job opportunities within the NHS. They have also announced a focus on community health services will further increase healthcare job opportunities across the country. 
   

• Set up Great British Energy – with a focus on achieving energy independence from the likes of Putin, Labour is pledging to create 650,000 jobs in the green energy sector by 2030. Labour has announced plans to create Great British Energy, a new publicly-owned company. This new company will “create jobs and build supply chains in every corner of the UK. Scotland will be the powerhouse of our clean energy mission, with Great British Energy headquartered there.” 
   

• Clean water – Labour has pledged to bring in stricter measures to improve the cleanliness of our water: “Labour will put failing water companies under special measures to clean up our water. We will give regulators new powers to block the payment of bonuses to executives who pollute our waterways and bring criminal charges against persistent law breakers.” By blocking executive bonuses for those failing to do their part, Labour will have ready funds to reinvest in environmental jobs and infrastructure, while also promoting sustainable practices and encouraging Britain to become more environmentally conscious.
   

• Reconnecting Britain – for Labour, a key focus moving forward will be on setting up new trade agreements and securing the country’s position as a leading force. By heading up a ‘Clean Power Alliance’, Labour will enable a new wave of jobs in the green energy sector, but will also open career options for those looking to work closely with the country’s allies. As Britain’s position and influence increase abroad, so too will opportunities for companies to expand more readily, for new partnerships to be formed, and for hiring and scaling plans to be formed with greater stability at their root. 
   

• Crack down on antisocial behaviour – to make Britain feel safer, the Labour Party are promising to invest in more police. With a focus on cracking down on knife crime and offering more support for violence against women and girls, the Party’s focus will be on making the police a more visible presence in our communities while also introducing harsher punishments for offenders. While no hard figure has been presented for increasing the police force, Labour have announced plans to roll out a direct entry scheme for detectives, to encourage more people to consider a role in which specialist investigation skills will be central. 
   

Depending on the successful party, the upcoming election will be the turning point for the country to face one of two quite different visions for the UK's job market. While the Conservatives emphasise the importance of economic stability, tax reductions, and defence investment, Labour focuses more on public sector expansion and sustainability. For both parties though, there is a focus on shaping new opportunities for employment in the UK. 

Remember 

The outcome of the 2024 General Election will significantly influence the future of the UK's job market, with each party proposing distinct strategies to address current challenges and opportunities. Should the Conservatives remain in power, their policies could lead to increased employment in sectors like defence manufacturing, infrastructure, and childcare, though concerns remain about potential impacts on public services and economic inequality. 

On the other hand, if Labour were to win, the country would see a focus on public sector expansion, social welfare, and sustainability. Their focus on green technologies, healthcare, and education aims to create a wide range of jobs while improving job quality and social equity. However, their proposals may also raise operational costs for businesses, potentially limiting some hiring capabilities. 

As the election approaches, voters will decide which vision aligns best with their priorities for the job market. The contrasting approaches of the Conservative and Labour parties highlight the critical link between political decisions and employment health. The balance between these policies will shape the future landscape of employment in the UK, influencing job creation, income levels, economic growth, and workforce participation. The decisions made in this election will have lasting implications for workers and the broader economy, setting the course for the nation's employment market in the years to come.

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