Cause and Effect | How extreme weather events are leading to severe consequences for agriculture and food security

Prolonged dry spells in Southern Europe, particularly affecting Italy, Spain, Malta, Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia, an abnormally dry winter in western Canada, a winter in India with excess rains in some parts and deficits in others, a drought that starved parts of Africa, heatwaves in Asia, and unusual weather in other parts of the world have wreaked havoc on agriculture.

Not only has land in many regions inched closer to infertility, but there have also been insurmountable economic losses. Among the starkest effects is the seemingly never-ending food crisis in parts of Africa.

India: Dry winter and spring, low reservoirs

Below-average rains in the food-bowl states of India last year led to a dip in the output of pulses to 23.4 million tonne in 2023-24 from 26.1 million tonne a year ago.

Plentiful harvests are critical this year also because of a drop in food reserves. For instance, wheat stocks in state warehouses dropped to 7.5 million tonne in April, the lowest in 16 years, after disappointing production in 2022 and 2023.

A lack of winter rain and snow has also led to fears of a water crisis in the summer as most reservoirs are running low.

Plentiful rains in these states will likely boost stocks of commodities such as pulses, onions, soyabean, rice, corn, coarse cereals, sugar, rubber and cotton. In April, inflation in pulses was at a high of 16.8%.

In what might provide some relief, the India Meteorological Department has forecast above-average monsoon for the first time in two years for a majority of the country’s rain-fed states that lack irrigation but account for nearly two-thirds of the country’s farm output.

The Olive theory

The Mediterranean region has been the home of olive farming for thousands of years, with Spain alone producing half the world’s supply of olive oil. The future of the industry is, however, uncertain with the European drought, which has refused to abate since 2022, creating an olive crisis.

Global production for the 2023/2024 crop year is expected to fall to 2,407,000 tonnes, according to the International Olive Council, and down 6% on the previous year.

Spain — the world's biggest olive oil producer — covers 70% of the European Union's consumption and 45% of that of the entire world. Heatwaves when olive trees were flowering and a lack of rain later hit the orchards hard, causing scarcity and sending prices soaring.

In the hydrological year beginning October 1, 2022, to May 2023, the country on the whole received 28% less rain.

The southern inland province of Jaen, which is at the heart of the country’s olive oil output, recorded 16% deficit rainfall in the time. Records for the current year are yet to be updated.

Extreme weather in other important growing regions including Greece, Italy and Portugal as well as Turkey and Morocco has added to the crisis.

Italian winemakers are among those adjusting to the new weather conditions in the Mediterranean.

Double crisis in Italy

Increased temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns are causing more frequent droughts in some parts of Italy, while other regions experience extreme flooding, creating major disruptions for agriculture, water supplies, and even energy generation.

Drought, in particular, has become a growing problem.

“The drought that hit northern Italy in 2022 was unprecedented in more than two centuries, and is part of a long-term trend of more frequent and severe drought in the area,” The Climate Reality Project wrote citing Nature.

The year 2022 was particularly severe, with the Po River, Italy's most vital river, experiencing record-low water levels. This dry-out, in turn, put as much as 40% of Italy’s agriculture sector in jeopardy.

The 2022 drought in northern Italy alone caused as much as $6.5 billion in agricultural damage and jeopardized thousands of farms.

While the south of the country is witnessing a heatwave, storms and heavy rainfall left many parts of northern Italy under water early in May.

Milan experienced up to 130mm of localised rain in a single day, resulting in flash floods. Local observers said that such rain intensity had not been recorded in May for more than 170 years.

The Italian farming industry is the European Union's third-largest in terms of production value, behind France and Germany but ahead of Spain, which is in fourth place.

With over 22,000 hectares of crop fields, Milan has one of the biggest agricultural areas in Italy, and indeed in Europe.

A dry Canadian winter

An abnormally dry winter in Canada worsened drought conditions across the western provinces, where most of the country's oil, gas, forest products and grain are produced.

The dry winter followed Canada's hottest summer on record, partly due to the El Nino weather phenomenon, and triggered concerns that 2024 could be another record-breaking wildfire year.

What happens on the wildfire front is yet to be seen.

The dry winter, meanwhile, has already triggered many fears.

Many cities experienced their warmest December ever recorded, and at the end of April, 61% of the country was classified as “Abnormally Dry”, according to the Canadian government’s drought monitor. This included 75% of the country’s agricultural landscape, with southern Alberta, western Saskatchewan and north-central British Columbia the worst hit.

The Pacific Region (British Columbia), which is home to over 200 agriculture commodities, reported its lowest snowpack since 1970 at 65% of the normal at the beginning of April — this could lead to an increased risk for drought later in the year.

In regions like much of Canada, where winter precipitation translates to moisture in the ground for spring/summer plantation. And the predictability of the seasons left no need for irrigation systems.

The record lack of rain and snow then means that rivers and lakes run low, and the air is so dry that whatever little snow fell melted. Thus, increasing pressure on groundwater aquifers and sapping them dry.

The prolonged drought has also increased the cost of cattle feed and drained dugouts that the cattle drink from.

An emerging global crisis

The unpredictability and frequency of weather extremes have exacerbated a food crisis that emerged out of conflicts in several regions over the last two years. This, at a time, when the world was yet to recover from the after-effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Over the last year, international agencies have sounded an alarm over surges in food insecurity that have plunged millions into extreme hunger. The UN’s World Food Program (WFP) called it “a hunger crisis of unprecedented proportions”.

The global food security report of the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) 2023, released in July last year, said that 735 million people faced hunger in 2022. The Caribbean, Western Asia and all subregions of Africa experienced the most alarming increases in these hunger levels. Worldwide, more than 3.1 billion people could not afford a healthy diet, according to the report.

Since the Russia-Ukraine war began in February 2022, many countries have suffered due to sanctions on Russia and the destruction of ports in Ukraine. Russia is a major exporter of wheat, and Ukraine is a significant producer of corn.

Compounding the crisis, are extreme weather events. This added crisis may be something none of the world governments are prepared for.

Tannu Jain, HT's deputy chief content producer, picks a piece of climate news from around the globe and analyses its impact using connected reports, research and expert speak