The indispensability of revival of political process in J&K
Many J&K watchers suggest that elections should be held before the grant of statehood, drawing an analogy with the Constitutional status of Delhi.
The security situation in Jammu region of the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) is worrisome. Much has been reflected in the media and on various forums vis-a-vis the matters dropping to relatively low in the last few years. Undoubtedly, the multifarious attributes have been from the complicity of Pakistan to factors that could be inherent in nature. Inter-se primacy of the attributes varies, depending upon the evidence and inclinations of analysers.
Amid the clutter, certain aspects are amply clear and are indicative of the messaging that is intended by terror groups at the behest of their handlers. The said messaging may be summarised as firstly, terrorism in the region is not in its terminal decline, as claimed by the dispensation; secondly, there prevails a sense of vehement opposition to the abrogation of Article 370; thirdly, the entire geographic mass of J&K is affected by the scourge of terrorism and it is not only about the valley of Kashmir and fourthly, the time is not yet ripe for revival of political process in spite of the respectable turn out in recently concluded Lok Sabha elections.
It is noted that any initiative on the part of the government that empowers the local population is against the interests of the terror infrastructure and hence undesirable to them. In the above context, few of the analyses tend to fall prey to the terrorists’ narratives in expressing the need to delay the assembly elections and grant statehood.
Many J&K watchers suggest that elections should be held before the grant of statehood and that law and order should be retained under the central government, drawing an analogy with the Constitutional status of Delhi. In such an eventuality, the overall gain is unlikely to be anything different from the past. We shall be giving the people a cause to resist since democracy can be either complete or absent; there is no ‘maybe’ scenario.
The present times call for empowering the people by making them the stakeholders in scripting their future. In case the people do not measure up, stringent options are always there with the Centre. Most importantly, people have to be given a chance. The masses if devoid of representation for long may get driven to desperation yet again, and the familiar roller-coaster journey of J&K shall continue, at the cost of overall well-being. Encouragingly, the people of J&K in the past, have demonstrated a tremendous inclination for democratic processes during various elections starting from that for the local bodies to the recently concluded Lok Sabha polls.
Adhering to the directives of the Supreme Court to hold elections by coming September, is indeed the best course of action. Prime Minister Narendra Modi in an interview with PTI in May said that his government had made a "solemn promise" for the restoration of J&K’s statehood and that he would stand by it. The steadfast resolve of none other than the PM offers hope to the people of J&K and counters the aim of terror outfits who want to derail the revival of the political process.
As far as the worsening security situation in the UT, especially in the Jammu region, the developments need to be viewed from the correct perspective. Holding the revival of the political process hostage to the prevailing security situation may not be justified. In past, the erstwhile state of J&K has gone through elections, even in the face of heightened terror indices, especially in the years 1996 and 2002.
As per the data obtained from South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the total number of terror-related killing incidents was 2903 in 1996, and 2799 in 2002; much higher than 134 in 2023 and 32 (so far) in 2024. As is clear from the figures cited above, the security situation continues to look up in the backdrop of the past parameters.
The current surge of terror in the Jammu region, although worrying, is nowhere comparable to the terror indices of election years in past. Similarly, the June 9 terror strike on pilgrims in Reasi was not the first of its kind. In the past, terror-related incidents during the Amarnath Yatra have occurred at least eight to nine times, commencing from the year 1993.
The data cited above is not in any manner to trivialise any terror strike. The aim is to flag the aspects of viewing the current trends from the correct perspective. As per security expert, Ajay Sahni, the utopia of ‘zero terror’ is nothing but political rhetoric and can only manifest in the face of Pakistan giving up supporting terrorism in an absolute manner. We are still at quite a distance from reaching that stage, and any endeavour to circumvent the revival of the political process in J&K shall be seen as laden with ulterior motives to prolong the hold of the central government on the UT and its people.
Colonel Shashank Ranjan is a retired Infantry officer who has served extensively in J&K, while deployed in counter-insurgency operations. He currently teaches at OP Jindal Global University, Sonepat, Haryana. The views expressed are personal
The security situation in Jammu region of the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) is worrisome. Much has been reflected in the media and on various forums vis-a-vis the matters dropping to relatively low in the last few years. Undoubtedly, the multifarious attributes have been from the complicity of Pakistan to factors that could be inherent in nature. Inter-se primacy of the attributes varies, depending upon the evidence and inclinations of analysers.
Amid the clutter, certain aspects are amply clear and are indicative of the messaging that is intended by terror groups at the behest of their handlers. The said messaging may be summarised as firstly, terrorism in the region is not in its terminal decline, as claimed by the dispensation; secondly, there prevails a sense of vehement opposition to the abrogation of Article 370; thirdly, the entire geographic mass of J&K is affected by the scourge of terrorism and it is not only about the valley of Kashmir and fourthly, the time is not yet ripe for revival of political process in spite of the respectable turn out in recently concluded Lok Sabha elections.
It is noted that any initiative on the part of the government that empowers the local population is against the interests of the terror infrastructure and hence undesirable to them. In the above context, few of the analyses tend to fall prey to the terrorists’ narratives in expressing the need to delay the assembly elections and grant statehood.
Many J&K watchers suggest that elections should be held before the grant of statehood and that law and order should be retained under the central government, drawing an analogy with the Constitutional status of Delhi. In such an eventuality, the overall gain is unlikely to be anything different from the past. We shall be giving the people a cause to resist since democracy can be either complete or absent; there is no ‘maybe’ scenario.
The present times call for empowering the people by making them the stakeholders in scripting their future. In case the people do not measure up, stringent options are always there with the Centre. Most importantly, people have to be given a chance. The masses if devoid of representation for long may get driven to desperation yet again, and the familiar roller-coaster journey of J&K shall continue, at the cost of overall well-being. Encouragingly, the people of J&K in the past, have demonstrated a tremendous inclination for democratic processes during various elections starting from that for the local bodies to the recently concluded Lok Sabha polls.
Adhering to the directives of the Supreme Court to hold elections by coming September, is indeed the best course of action. Prime Minister Narendra Modi in an interview with PTI in May said that his government had made a "solemn promise" for the restoration of J&K’s statehood and that he would stand by it. The steadfast resolve of none other than the PM offers hope to the people of J&K and counters the aim of terror outfits who want to derail the revival of the political process.
As far as the worsening security situation in the UT, especially in the Jammu region, the developments need to be viewed from the correct perspective. Holding the revival of the political process hostage to the prevailing security situation may not be justified. In past, the erstwhile state of J&K has gone through elections, even in the face of heightened terror indices, especially in the years 1996 and 2002.
As per the data obtained from South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the total number of terror-related killing incidents was 2903 in 1996, and 2799 in 2002; much higher than 134 in 2023 and 32 (so far) in 2024. As is clear from the figures cited above, the security situation continues to look up in the backdrop of the past parameters.
The current surge of terror in the Jammu region, although worrying, is nowhere comparable to the terror indices of election years in past. Similarly, the June 9 terror strike on pilgrims in Reasi was not the first of its kind. In the past, terror-related incidents during the Amarnath Yatra have occurred at least eight to nine times, commencing from the year 1993.
The data cited above is not in any manner to trivialise any terror strike. The aim is to flag the aspects of viewing the current trends from the correct perspective. As per security expert, Ajay Sahni, the utopia of ‘zero terror’ is nothing but political rhetoric and can only manifest in the face of Pakistan giving up supporting terrorism in an absolute manner. We are still at quite a distance from reaching that stage, and any endeavour to circumvent the revival of the political process in J&K shall be seen as laden with ulterior motives to prolong the hold of the central government on the UT and its people.
Colonel Shashank Ranjan is a retired Infantry officer who has served extensively in J&K, while deployed in counter-insurgency operations. He currently teaches at OP Jindal Global University, Sonepat, Haryana. The views expressed are personal