Here’s how I tackle this challenge: 1. Define the Objective Clearly: The first step is understanding what you’re forecasting & the time frame, as indicators vary in relevance depending on the context and horizon. 2. Segment Indicators by Predictive Value: I categorize indicators into leading, coincident, non-coherent & lagging to align with the forecast phase I’m addressing. 3. Use Data-Driven Validation: Historical correlation helps assess which indicators have consistently influenced the target metric. Industry Relevance and Granularity: Selection to the industry or sector with a granular focus like seasonality/regions etc. 5. Monitor Real-Time and External Factors 6. Cross-validation and Simplification

How I Choose the Right Economic Indicators for #Market-Based WASH In my work with Market-Based WASH in Ethiopia’s Somali region, selecting the right indicators is key to navigating water scarcity and dispersed populations. I focus on: #Household Purchasing Behavior: Adoption rates of products like ceramic filters. #Microfinance Utilization: Loan uptake and repayment for WASH products. #Private Sector Growth: The number of WASH entrepreneurs and service providers. I also rely on leading indicators like consumer willingness to pay, rainfall patterns, and product adoption trends. Context matters too—local perceptions, policies, and supply chains all influence success.

I will essentially pick top 5 based on the goal and run with that. Top 5 will be based on effectiveness, variability, consumer behavior, and the seasonality/nature of the business itself.

Uncertainty is everywhere in our life, workplace and even in day to day affairs, first we need to keep ourselves emotionally strong and accepting the reality then the simple rule is to prioritise based on 80:20 rule, 20% difficulty in implementation with the potential of 80% impact,then engaging right people at the right time!

It is critical to identify the business drivers as from the strategic appeal. Always starting from the customer view and what does value mean from the customer perspective aiming to identify the must to have Too Big To Fail business drivers. Automatically the business should come into the commercial success factors to be cascaded down to the rest of the internal / areas such as Marketing, Operations, Supply Chain, Finance, HR for those ones to align its own Key Performance Indicators but once again always strategically and operational aligned to the business commercial success factors. Every month a thorough evaluation should be performed comparing actual to forecast and work on corrective actions.