How can you manage complex projects with uncertainty?

Develop Risk Management Plan and have an open discussion with the stakeholders, technical teams etc to ensure every risk is captured from the beginning of the project till end of the project. Risk assumptions is an important criterion for every project no matter the level of complexity. You need to think 10x ahead for the kind risk that the project team will encountering be it technical,people,process,procurement,timeline etc.One of the most important note stakeholders' engagements to frequently communicate with your customer no matter how complex is the risk and issues that the project team is facing...the key is transparency.

Uncertainty in IT projects is a constant in delivery equation as the other key parameters such as requirements, available resources , budget keep changing. If project delivery is incremental in nature then it's a win-win situation as one can adopt agile methodology for delivery and plan only for each sprint that is 2-4 weeks and keep showcasing the end result to the customer in sprint demos. In this model, the scope of work keeps changing for each sprint based on available resources, time and can easily accommodate requirement changes. If the project has a fixed scope and a fixed date of delivery then it is better to go for waterfall model. List out the uncertainties, add it to a risk register and keep buffer in your capacity planning.

1. At beginning, try to understand as possible in black & white the business case, the deliverables, the final outcome & the expectations. From this point, define & agree on the scope statement & the baselines. 2. Consider to use the methodology I.e. classic, agile, & hybrid. Ensure alignment with all. 3. Ensure understanding of the plan & the risks with all. 4. Consider a realistic allowances & contingencies. 5. Ensure that the contracts are supporting the plan.

Clearly defined roles and a robust communication protocol are indispensable for aligning stakeholder expectations and enabling agile adjustments, ensuring seamless project execution from inception to completion.

I find the challenge of complex projects with high uncertainty exciting and rewarding. I have had the privilege of working on several projects like this, all different but sharing some commonalities. Some are brand-new products that haven't existed before or are new to the business. Others involve working with highly complex systems that are beyond the comprehension of a single individual. What they all have in common is the importance of having a clear objective, the need to unpack the problem into more manageable "chunks" and spend time investigating them, and uncertainty in what can be done by when which becomes clearer over time. Finally, the importance of a talented and highly collaborative team cannot be overstated.

You nailed it. The iterative approach is best to be able to fail fast, learn and adjust to complexity. I will add that adding key milestones to the mix to ensure the adjustments are truly delivering the business value expected in these types of complex projects. In my experience I have seen these more waterfall type checkpoints as a good balance of governance and being able to pivot quickly. In fact, I was part of a mega project where this checkpoint between the iteratively developed design revealed significant gaps that caused us to stop the program. It was tough but if we were pure waterfall we might have missed it due to the lack of pilots on key features and deeper technical design.

To mitigate uncertainty in a highly intricate project, employing an agile approach can prove advantageous. The crucial strategy is not to commit to specific methods or practices but instead to strategically define a sequence of minimum viable products. Begin with items that possess low uncertainty, ideally those that: 1. deliver standalone value, 2. have well-defined characteristics, and 3. can be constructed using available capabilities. This gradual approach effectively diminishes uncertainty while boosting confidence over time.

To the Nitty gritty of the projects is manager following all the scrum rituals importantly product review and deliver things in smaller chunks. The importance of product review is more of transparency in the project. This how you can start gaining confidence of the customers and also start building repo with the customers that will help you to grow you relationship. Also apart from Scrum have some crux of XP as well by putting some shadow team members so that we don't have dependency on any one that will create a problem for an organisation down the line.

As innovation facilitator of 100+ projects you can MITIGATE PROJECT RISKS in 10 WAYS 1. Market Research: Understand your target audience and their needs. 2. Prototyping: Build and test prototypes to identify flaws. 3. Cross-functional Teams: Bring together experts from various disciplines. 4. Iterative Development: Break the process into phases. 5. User Feedback: Involve users to gather insights and validate. 6. Risk Analysis: Identify potential risks and their impact. 7. Minimum Viable Product (MVP): Launch an MVP. 8. Agile Method: Embrace agile practices to adapt. 9. Quality Assurance: Implement robust testing procedures to catch bugs. 10. Communication: Maintain clear communication within your team.

If I identify the risk there are few risk that needs to be taken care of are such as 1. Team member risk (Follow XP framework) have shadow team member. 2. Infrastructure risk - have cloud to commit all your code and practice of committing a code before you end your day. 3. Make sure everyone from the team is well versed with what we are building so that anyone can take up any task. 4. Technology risk - Make sure when you select any technology is latest and it's scalable.

Build a mindset of a team by motivating them that they are adding value to society by building a software.This way we can build resiliency into the team. Also have a mindset of not getting judge even if they fail. Have a pychological safety mindset into the team which will allow them to take risk and flourish in their own way.

Well, this is interesting and the same time quite a complex topic from Project planning and execution perspective. Having said that, there are some fundamental questions that need to be answered in order to identify what delivery approach suits an engagement. For any program, I primarily, ask following questions: 1.Scope- Is the scope in terms of feature is frozen or business expects changes/ new requirements to be incorporated as the project moves? 2. Time/Velocity- Is it time Constrained or a certain Velocity metrics is agreed upon? The above 2 questions help in deciding delivery approach: A.) Agile- If requirement are expected to evolve and Velocity metrics is agreed upon.

B.) Waterfall- If requirements are fixed with detailed wireframes (along with input/output) and constrained by timelines with agreement on CR for any deviation in requirements. While above recommendations are indicative, Subsequent questions help us on firming up on delivery approach.: 3. Does client landscape (People+ Process+ technology) have benchmark maturity to capture Epics/ Features/User Stories/ Acceptance criteria and churn out various Agile Metrics? If answer to this is yes, then execution of projects in Agile mode is highly recommended with every sprint culminating with demonstration of capabilities. Otherwise, lack of ability to capture and present Agile metrics, will be a cause of dissatisfaction.

Communication is the key and make sure you are looping your stakeholders in all the conversation whether the project is Green or Red this will give them confidence and a sense of responsibility within the team.

Managing complex projects in the face of uncertainty is an art of adaptability and strategic foresight. It requires meticulous planning, the flexibility to pivot when necessary, and a team aligned with a shared vision. By breaking the project into manageable phases, continually assessing risks, and maintaining open lines of communication, we can navigate the unknown. Embracing change as an opportunity for innovation, and leveraging data-driven insights, we can not only weather uncertainty but also thrive amidst it.

Stop trying to predict the future. Deal with what’s right in front of you, today, right now. That’s all the information you have. The rest is speculation.

Monte Carlo simulations and Lead Time metrics in Kanban significantly mitigate project uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulations offer a detailed risk assessment, helping teams anticipate and prepare for possible outcomes. Analyzing Lead Time data aids in forecasting realistic project timelines, enabling better planning and timely delivery. Together, these metrics enhance predictability and bolster risk management, guiding projects seamlessly even in uncertain scenarios.