What drives air transport demand in the aviation industry?

Air transport demand is the amount of air travel that people and businesses are willing to buy at different prices and conditions. It is influenced by various factors, such as income, preferences, costs, competition, and regulations. Understanding what drives air transport demand is crucial for the aviation industry, as it affects the profitability, sustainability, and planning of airlines, airports, and other stakeholders. In this article, you will learn about the main drivers of air transport demand and how they interact with each other.

Key takeaways from this article

Competitive dynamics:

An air transport market with robust competition often sees better service quality, lower prices, and more route choices. This can stir up demand because customers love having options that fit their needs without breaking the bank.
Income correlation:

In places with higher GDP per capita, folks tend to fly more—using commercial airlines or even private jets. So if you're in the aviation biz, keep an eye on economic trends; they can be strong indicators of demand.

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1 Income and GDP

One of the most important drivers of air transport demand is income, or more specifically, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. GDP per capita measures the average income of a country or region, and it reflects the purchasing power and living standards of its population. Generally, the higher the GDP per capita, the more people can afford to travel by air, and the more often they do so. Air transport demand tends to grow faster than GDP per capita, as people spend a larger share of their income on air travel as they become richer. However, this relationship is not linear or constant, as it depends on other factors, such as the level of development, the degree of market saturation, and the availability of substitutes.

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Roberta Fagundes Leal Andreoli

Partner at Leal Andreoli Advogados
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No Brasil, quando mais elevado o PIB per capita, maior a procura por serviços de transporte aéreo de passageiros prestado por empresas de táxi aéreo, incluindo o transporte aeromédico, quando necessário. Sendo assim, o indivíduo que tem amior rendimento, tende a migrar a contratação de voos com a aviação comercial (linhas aéreas) para empresas focadas na aviação executiva. Em alguns casos, o mesmo indivíduo ou empresa controlada pelo mesmo, optam por adquirir uma aeronave própria.

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Ahmad M. Mandili

Director, MRO Operations Systems | Vision 2030 | Executive Management | Operations Technology | Digital Transformation | AMOS SME | Prosci® Certified Change Practitioner
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Income and GDP play pivotal roles in influencing air transport demand in the aviation industry. As personal incomes rise, individuals are more likely to afford air travel, leading to increased demand for both leisure and business flights. Similarly, a growing GDP often correlates with heightened economic activities, fostering business travel and cargo transportation. The aviation industry, being sensitive to economic conditions, thrives when disposable incomes and GDP are robust. Economic prosperity fuels passenger and freight demand, shaping the aviation landscape as a reflection of broader economic health.

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Bijender Nath Mathur (Bijji)

Travel & Aviation Professional|Business Development|Airline Sales & Marketing|Revenue & Business Growth Optimisation
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The demand for air travel in the airline industry is mainly driven by factors such as economic growth, business activities, tourism and globalization. As the economy expands, the demand for transportation and logistics increases. Tourism also plays an important role, with many people traveling on holiday. In addition, globalization boosts international trade, necessitating the efficient and rapid movement of goods and people across borders. Factors such as population growth, disposable income, and technological advances also affect air travel demand.

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2 Preferences and tastes

Preferences and tastes are personal and cultural factors that influence people's choices and behaviors, particularly when it comes to air transport demand. This varies widely across different segments of the market, such as leisure and business travelers, domestic and international passengers, and low-cost and premium customers. The value of time, quality of service, environmental awareness, and social/cultural norms all play a role in influencing preferences and tastes. For instance, people may be willing to pay more for air travel if it saves them time or avoids inconvenience. Additionally, the comfort, safety, reliability, and amenities of air travel can be important factors in decision-making. Environmental impact is also a consideration for many travelers, as well as the availability of alternative modes of transport. Finally, societal expectations, habits, and traditions can all affect preferences and tastes when traveling by air.

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Vivien A. Corazza da Costa

Diretora de Segurança Operacional na Avien Segurança & Assessoria Aeronáutica Ltda
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Sim, conforme experiências de outros países, contribui um estudo sério sobre nichos e oferta de malhas que atendam preferências populacionais, assim como atitudes das agências de turismo em trabalhar para atender esses nichos com ofertas de voos que lhes agrade.

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3 Costs and prices

Air transport demand is driven by costs and prices, which refer to the monetary and non-monetary expenses incurred when traveling by air. These can be divided into two categories: direct costs and prices, such as airline tickets, fees, taxes, and charges; and indirect costs and prices, such as ground transportation, accommodation, food, and entertainment. Costs and prices influence the affordability and attractiveness of air travel compared to other options; generally, the lower they are, the higher the demand for air transport. However, the sensitivity of air transport demand to costs and prices can vary depending on factors like income, preferences, and competition.

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Arona Sakho S.

General Manager @ Linktour.SAS® Travel and Tourism Services✈ 🏨 🚗 🚄
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The distance between cities and countries. the airline tickets round trip and one-way the airline fuel cost and ground handling charges. the inflight - services to passengers. the highest quality of services for the airline customers provided by certified professionals. the higest standards of safety and security of the airport politics and policies. The travel and tourism Industry (hospitality = hotels, restaurants and entertaining public attractions and means of public transportations. etc....

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4 Competition and market structure

Competition and market structure are fourth drivers of air transport demand, which can influence the availability, diversity, and quality of air travel products and services. This is affected by the degree of market concentration, liberalization, and innovation. The number of airlines and airports dominating the market, the degree to which it is open to new entrants and foreign competitors, as well as how much the market is driven by new technologies, business models, and customer needs all play a role.

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Ahmad M. Mandili

Director, MRO Operations Systems | Vision 2030 | Executive Management | Operations Technology | Digital Transformation | AMOS SME | Prosci® Certified Change Practitioner
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Intense competition often results in enhanced service quality, lower prices, and increased route options, stimulating demand. The market structure, characterized by the presence of dominant airlines or low-cost carriers, influences pricing dynamics and customer preferences. Additionally, strategic alliances and partnerships impact market competitiveness. Factors such as regulatory frameworks, airport infrastructure, and geopolitical conditions further shape demand patterns. Adapting to evolving consumer trends and technological advancements also plays a crucial role. Balancing competition, market concentration, and regulatory compliance is essential for sustained growth in the dynamic air transport sector.

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5 Regulations and policies

Regulations and policies are a fifth driver of air transport demand, influencing the costs, prices, availability, quality, and environmental impact of air travel. Safety and security regulations ensure the safety and security of passengers, crew, aircraft, and airports. Economic and social regulations set rules and incentives for market entry, exit, pricing, and taxation of airlines and airports. Environmental and climate regulations are measures and targets to reduce emissions, noise, and waste of air travel. All these regulations have an effect on air transport demand.

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Fulvio Delicato, MBA

Aircraft/Parts/shops Certification | Restructuring | Leasing&Lessor Contracts | High Value Assets | ISO/AS/FAA/EASA/ANAC Certifications | IBGC ESG Best Practices Book | Mentor (MEC certified) | Coach - ICC certified.
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Desde bem antes da edição do famoso texto DO CONTRATO SOCIAL, os homens em sociedade já vivem sob alguma regulação. Achar que a vida "como ela é" seria possível sem regulação já foi filosoficamente debatido por séculos sem confirmações fora de condições utópicas. Um profissional trabalha de, para e com regulações. O mais interessante é que poucos se dão conta das razões por trás de tanta regulação. Para além da segurança de passageiros, tripulação, cargas e aeroportos as regulações aplicáveis aos sistemas aeronáuticos e aeroviarios produzem segurança para quem tem aviões passando sobre suas cabeças e para a continuidade de toda uma economia que depende da movimentação de pessoas e cargas para gerar segurança financeira para todos.

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Roberta Fagundes Leal Andreoli

Partner at Leal Andreoli Advogados
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A indústria aeronáutica devidamente regulada pelas autoridades competentes do país onde se presta o serviço de transporte aéreo público ou privado, garante a segurança das operações e o amplo conhecimento das normas que devem ser conhecidas por todos os usuários e enolvidos com o referido transporte aéreo.

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6 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?

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What drives air transport demand in the aviation industry?

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1 Income and GDP

2 Preferences and tastes

3 Costs and prices

4 Competition and market structure

5 Regulations and policies

6 Here’s what else to consider

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