What is the relationship between risk and reward in military strategy?

1 Risk and reward framework

One way to understand the relationship between risk and reward in military strategy is to use a framework that classifies different types of strategies based on their risk and reward levels. According to this framework, there are four main categories of strategies: low-risk/low-reward, low-risk/high-reward, high-risk/low-reward, and high-risk/high-reward. Each category has its own advantages and disadvantages, depending on the context and the goals of the war.

2 Low-risk/low-reward strategies

Low-risk/low-reward strategies are those that aim to minimize the exposure and losses of one's own forces, while also achieving modest or limited gains. These strategies are often used in defensive or attritional wars, where the main objective is to preserve the status quo or wear down the enemy over time. Examples of low-risk/low-reward strategies are guerrilla warfare, siege warfare, or defensive fortifications. These strategies can be effective in avoiding major defeats or maintaining a stalemate, but they may also lack decisive results or strategic initiative.

3 Low-risk/high-reward strategies

Low-risk/high-reward strategies are those that aim to exploit the enemy's weaknesses or vulnerabilities, while also minimizing the costs and risks of one's own forces. These strategies are often used in offensive or maneuver wars, where the main objective is to achieve a quick and decisive victory or a significant advantage. Examples of low-risk/high-reward strategies are surprise attacks, blitzkrieg, or air superiority. These strategies can be very successful in achieving strategic breakthroughs or overwhelming the enemy, but they may also depend on favorable conditions or accurate intelligence.

4 High-risk/low-reward strategies

High-risk/low-reward strategies are those that involve a high degree of uncertainty or danger for one's own forces, while also offering little or no potential benefits. These strategies are often used in desperate or irrational wars, where the main objective is to inflict damage or harm on the enemy, regardless of the consequences. Examples of high-risk/low-reward strategies are suicide attacks, scorched earth, or nuclear warfare. These strategies can be very destructive or disruptive for both sides, but they may also backfire or escalate the conflict.

5 High-risk/high-reward strategies

High-risk/high-reward strategies are those that involve a high degree of uncertainty or danger for one's own forces, while also offering a large or significant potential benefit. These strategies are often used in audacious or innovative wars, where the main objective is to achieve a radical or transformative change or a superior position. Examples of high-risk/high-reward strategies are amphibious landings, special operations, or cyber warfare. These strategies can be very effective or influential in changing the course of the war, but they may also fail or face resistance.