ACLED

USAID once provided 40% of global aid. It’s no longer operational. Will this reshape global conflict? Unlikely. Political competition—not aid—drives violence. ▪️ Ukraine & Gaza’s conflicts won’t shift due to aid cuts—they are politically driven. ▪️ In Ethiopia, Somalia & Syria, aid supports food & healthcare—not war. The real crisis? Severe economic & social fallout, from healthcare to climate impacts. Clionadh Raleigh breaks it down: https://lnkd.in/eq-_j9Nz

How could a pause in US aid impact Ukraine’s war and recovery efforts? As debates over continued support unfold, the consequences for Ukraine’s defense and reconstruction are becoming more urgent. In Newsweek's recent article, #ACLED Senior Analyst for Europe & Central Asia Nichita Gurcov warns that the suspension of US military aid and funding for power grid restoration could severely undermine Kyiv’s recovery and weaken air defenses that have protected critical infrastructure from Russian attacks. Read the full analysis today: https://lnkd.in/d7QW7y3R

🔍 Track shifting patterns in political violence with ACLED Trendfinder The #ACLED Trendfinder is your customizable hub for analyzing political violence and demonstrations across the globe. Whether you're tracking emerging conflicts, monitoring hotspots, or comparing trends over time, Trendfinder delivers tailored insights at both national and subnational levels. 🗺️ Identify countries experiencing significant changes in violence using the Country Change Level Map. 📍 Zoom in on hotspots and new actors with the Event Locations Map.  📊 Analyze weekly activity with Trends Charts and export detailed data using the Change Statistics Table. Explore the data that drives your analysis—start using ACLED Trendfinder today: https://lnkd.in/d86wwabW

Two years after the formation of the interim administration, Tigray remains in turmoil and unprepared for regional elections. The Pretoria peace agreement initially envisioned elections within a year, but ongoing instability has stalled progress. On 13 February, the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) suspended the TPLF from political activities for three months, citing failure to hold a required general assembly. The Debretsion TPLF faction dismissed the decision as having “no legal significance,” arguing that the party never applied to be registered as a new party. As political divisions persist, uncertainty looms over Tigray’s future governance. Read the full #Ethiopia situation update today: https://lnkd.in/dDMmJQfi

#Gaza Monitor | 8 - 14 March 2025 Political violence in Gaza surged last week, as #ACLED records 68 events—a 19% increase from the previous week. This includes 29 incidents of violence targeting civilians, marking a 12% rise. While the post-Phase 1 period of the ceasefire began on 1 March, violence has continued in the weeks since. Key events include:  ◾ On 6 March, an Israeli drone strike in Gaza City killed three people and injured others.  ◾ On 11 March, Israeli drones killed five people near the Netzarim checkpoint.  ◾ On 14 March, an Israeli warship shelled a fisherman’s boat off Sudaniya, North Gaza, killing the fisherman. 🔎 Follow the evolving conflict with ACLED’s Gaza Monitor: https://lnkd.in/d64VVeUh

Minerals, militias, and the M23: What’s driving the crisis in #DRC? The conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is intensifying as M23 rebels expand operations across North and South Kivu. The group’s advance is fueled by political grievances, territorial disputes, and shifting regional alliances, with some captured areas containing strategic minerals like gold, tin, and coltan. Despite efforts to contain the M23 rebellion through bilateral security deals and regional mediation, violence persists as ceasefire agreements between Rwanda and the DRC often exclude M23 and allied militias fighting alongside the Congolese military, allowing clashes to continue. In a new interview with The World, ACLED’s Africa Senior Analyst Ladd Serwat breaks down the drivers behind the M23 resurgence, Rwanda’s regional interests, and the intersection with mineral interests in eastern DRC. He also discusses the potential US minerals-for-military deal and why past peace efforts have repeatedly failed to deliver long-term security. 🎧 Listen to the full conversation: https://lnkd.in/drwU_xjn

Understanding the #Yemen conflict requires more than just collecting data—it demands careful verification and expertise. ACLED’s Yemen desk navigates a complex media landscape, cross-checking Arabic-language sources, verified social media, and local partner insights to provide the most reliable picture of political violence. ACLED’s Senior Analyst for Yemen, Luca Nevola, discusses how this rigorous approach led to key milestones, including UNDP adopting ACLED’s death toll estimate and the launch of the Yemen Conflict Observatory, which helps track crises like the ongoing Red Sea conflict. Explore our latest analysis on how US airstrikes signal a shift in strategy against the Houthis: https://lnkd.in/dmZjVWXA

#Somalia saw a sharp escalation in aerial operations in February as Puntland state security forces, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States launched a joint campaign targeting Islamic State Somalia Province (IS Somalia). US strikes early in the month killed 14 militants in Puntland, including a senior recruiter, a financier, and an external operations leader linked to deployments in the US and Europe. Emirati forces, which had previously conducted occasional airstrikes in Somalia, carried out at least 30 strikes in February alone —marking their most extensive aerial campaign to date. IS Somalia responded by intensifying its own drone attacks, targeting Puntland Maritime Police and Dervish Forces in Qandala district of Bari. The spike in aerial clashes reflects mounting concern over IS activity in Somalia, as top IS operatives reportedly traveled to the country to expand the group’s influence. Missed our latest Africa Regional Overview? Read the full analysis today: https://lnkd.in/gJzt2WjR

#Ethiopia Situation Update | 19 March 2025 Political violence surged across Ethiopia, with unrest in Tigray, and violence against civilians in South Ethiopia and Amhara amid ongoing clashes between Fano militias and security forces. In Tigray, security forces aligned with the Debretsion faction forcibly took over local administrations, triggering tensions and mass arrests. In South Ethiopia region, ongoing border disputes with the neighboring Oromia region fueled civilian casualties, with attacks linked to the OLA/OLF-Shane in Kore zone of the South Ethiopia region. Meanwhile, in Amhara, Fano militias ambushed and killed local officials as clashes with security forces continued to disrupt daily life. What do these trends indicate for Ethiopia’s security outlook? Read ACLED’s full analysis: https://lnkd.in/dDMmJQfi

Upcoming webinar | Jihadist expansion reshaping Benin, Niger, and Nigeria Since early 2024, violent campaigns by al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) have significantly expanded across the Sahel’s littoral borderlands, intensifying conflict and civilian exposure. Join #ACLED on 28 March for a live discussion on the latest data and trends. Key highlights: ◾ How JNIM & ISSP are reshaping the regional security landscape  ◾ The impact of their expansion on border communities  ◾ Live Q&A with ACLED experts and external panelist Don't miss this essential discussion! Register now and learn more: https://lnkd.in/djT4zpDY