China Peace Initiative

The terrorist attack of 9/11 unleashed two decades of war, perhaps pointless. Post-attack, America unfortunately did some things that are contrary to its core beliefs, even though it was perhaps righteous anger. Afghanistan and Iraq are no better off (perhaps worse) than when it all started. It is a sad conundrum and commentary on human nature. Pray harder! China is working very hard to win over the “Global South,” “developing nations,” or the “Third World”…whatever you want to call it. Their message is “we understand, America does not.” Yet what they are really peddling is tyranny. If we want a world that looks like China, we could do nothing. If we want a world that has true democracy, rule of law, limited government, separation of power, individual rights, free press and civil society, then we must do more. It starts with reflection. --- China Peace Initiative (CPI) was created to explain and educate, toward understanding, hoping for peace. CPI's mission is to seek the evolution of Ca into a vibrant and prosperous nation where all have liberty to pursue wisdom and faith, and which chooses the path of peace. www.cpi-heping.org

Pope Francis is two days away from heading back home to Rome on his four-nation visit to Asia which began on September 2. It could not have been an easy trip for the 87-year-old. This trip includes Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Singapore, and Timor-Leste. He has previously visited Bangladesh, Mongolia, Myanmar, and Thailand in Asia. It is so very sad that Chinese authorities have not allowed a visit to China. They are afraid. They wrongly claim that the Catholic faith is Western, imperialist, colonial and a litany of other “bad” things. They rightly understand that on many levels the Catholic faith is a fundamental challenge to “socialism with Chinese characteristics.” The primary challenge is the Church’s emphasis on the precious value and respect for every person, as an individual, with a vision of human life that does not put the government at the center of everything. Chinese people in Singapore are embracing the Catholic faith and the church is growing there. Not “rice Christians” being “bought off” (as the Communist Party of China likes to dredge up from history) but educated, professional women and men who have lived life, probed life, sought more, and found a richness in Catholic teaching that brings meaning to their lives. There is no contradiction between the Chinese classics and the Christian faith. In fact, the classics point to many (most) of the fundamental tenets of the Catholic faith regarding the human person. It is very interesting. I reality, the only contradiction to “Chinese” and “Catholic” is “Communist.” --- China Peace Initiative (CPI) was created to explain and educate, toward understanding, hoping for peace. CPI's mission is to seek the evolution of China into a vibrant and prosperous nation where all have liberty to pursue wisdom and faith, and which chooses the path of peace. www.cpi-heping.org

To be fair, all governments in all nations generally do poorly at the management of care of children separated from their birth parents. China is not alone in that. It is a difficult task fraught with all sorts of complexities and challenges. Yet there is probably no topic which better highlights the weaknesses (and failures) of China’s system, than orphans. The one-child policy caused mass abandonment. The social welfare centers were not prepared for the huge influx of orphaned children and millions died of neglect. When knowledge of all those deaths became public, China scrambled to improve care in the facilities and to create an adoption system. This only exposed how difficult it is to get bureaucrats in a one-party system with no free press to do the hardest work on earth well, i.e. care for children, particularly infants. Now China is formally stopping international adoptions. The government claims this is to align China policy with international norms. Some media have described the move as a response to the falling birth rate and demographic pressure. None of this is the whole story. The move really has more to do with national pride, quieting the ultranationalists, and ending yet another source of corruption. The problem is that nobody in China wants to adopt these children so what the government is really doing is consigning them to a life without a forever family. Workers, retirees, and people who bought unfinished homes can all protest to get the government to pay attention to them, but orphaned children have no voice. It opens the can of worms about rights, role of government, respect for the individual, civil society, good policy, etc. A sad day for China’s most vulnerable! --- China Peace Initiative (CPI) was created to explain and educate, toward understanding, hoping for peace. CPI's mission is to seek the evolution of China into a vibrant and prosperous nation where all have liberty to pursue wisdom and faith, and which chooses the path of peace. www.cpi-heping.org

Sometime tonight in America, China will release a slew of updated economic data. The July data for new house prices, industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment, and unemployment rate will all be shared by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Then the NBS will hold a press conference to comment. The world’s financial media is going to go wild. Earlier today the data for RMB bank lending was released, it “achieved” a 15-year low. Meanwhile China’s bond market is on fire, yields shrinking, and the People’s Bank of China is chasing the issue energetically. The buyers of these bonds are mostly Chinese entities buying Chinese bonds to find a safe haven for onshore investment, because no others exist. The program for offshore investment (QDII), with quotas, is completely oversold. Bad, bad, bad news. Ok, but stop for a moment. None of it is a surprise to China’s leadership. They are very competent and perfectly informed. It is not the case that they do not know these things, or that they did not think of it, or that they do not know what to do about it. Not at all. They know all of it; they know it better than anyone else. What is happening is that they are “stress testing” the nation. They do not want to spend on stimulus, they do not want debt like in the US, they want to save their resources for other purposes, and they do not want to (again) hyper-empower the private sector. So, they are seeing what the nation can stand. It is kind of a high-stakes poker game, over the world’s second largest economy. They did something similar with the COVID lockdowns. The thing that people are not talking enough about is this: what we are all watching is decision-making by leaders who never have to win elections. --- China Peace Initiative (CPI) was created to explain and educate, toward understanding, hoping for peace. CPI's mission is to seek the evolution of China into a vibrant and prosperous nation where all have liberty to pursue wisdom and faith, and which chooses the path of peace. www.cpi-heping.org

CNN has done some deeper study into VP candidate Tim Walz’s experiences and views from his time in China. They pulled an old quote of his about the Chinese people from a Nebraska newspaper in which he said, “If they had the proper leadership, there are no limits on what they could accomplish. They are such kind, generous, capable people.” Then, for context, CNN reached out to Shen Dingli, a professor at Shanghai’s Fudan University who commented, “The more he [Walz] understands China, the more he feels pity for the Chinese people, and the more critical he becomes of the rulers who govern them.” There you have it: the Chinese people are good, but their leaders are bad. The irony is that this conclusion has reflected the views of roughly 90-95% of foreign observers, maybe 60-80% of Chinese people themselves, and perhaps even 30-50% of Communist Party of China members regarding China's government ever since opening up in 1978. Meanwhile, China just won half of all the gold medals at the Paris Olympics, has the world’s largest navy by hull numbers, and is the factory to the world. Clearly something deeper is going on here. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in a story about Russia in February 2023 used the Stockholm Syndrome to explain why Russians keep following the Putin state. Putin and Xi are friends for a reason. Are the Chinese people en masse identifying with their captors? Hard to know. What does seem to be the case is that now after nearly 50 years of trying various approaches and taking it as a given that a world run “the China way” is undesirable, there seems to be no way to stop the captors without also hurting the hostages. --- China Peace Initiative (CPI) was created to explain and educate, toward understanding, hoping for peace. CPI's mission is to seek the evolution of China into a vibrant and prosperous nation where all have liberty to pursue wisdom and faith, and which chooses the path of peace. www.cpi-heping.org

People involved in manufacturing who have had a foot in both China and the US (and perhaps who are already retired, so they less to worry about) marvel at what is happening. The idea that the US would ever again become a major manufacturing center boggles the mind. Manufacturing culture and mindset seems long dead in America and would likely take decades (and enormous treasure) to re-build (it’s not just a factory, it is a whole eco-system). This same group of people also watched the Chinese government finally “get out of the way” in the 1980’s and 90’s and let the natural mercantilism of the Chinese people blossom into a truly awe-inspiring manufacturing powerhouse. Young children at the time, when asked what they want to do when they grow up, would even answer, “I want to be a factory owner.” Many of them probably are now, and they are also likely struggling. Bloomberg ran a headline “China’s Had Enough of Its Own Toxic Price Wars.” The Economist, quoting China’s own National Bureau of Statistics, reports that 30% of industrial firms are operating in the red, the highest percentage since 1998, and a number that has increased 44% since the start of the year. Neither collapse (the roots are too deep) nor boom (the obstacles are too many) is likely to happen. But nothing is fun when you don’t make money. South China Morning Post reported that factories are finally starting to turn down orders and give up on the volume when margins are too thin. “Da zhe” (discount) is killing everybody. Overcapacity is real and it means layoffs. TEMU suppliers are protesting. Nations around the world, even friendly ASEAN neighbors, are erecting barriers to China’s goods. What happens next? Meanwhile, the political system in China is still so very brittle. Given the circumstances, Chairman Xi is probably onto the right path with “new productive forces” but between here and there it seems there will only be bitterness for the Chinese people. --- China Peace Initiative (CPI) was created to explain and educate, toward understanding, hoping for peace. CPI's mission is to seek the evolution of China into a vibrant and prosperous nation where all have liberty to pursue wisdom and faith, and which chooses the path of peace. www.cpi-heping.org

If you define being a “good politician” as having the ability to stay in power with least upheaval and use of force, then China’s are the best. There was a time in history when Chinese officials very closely studied modern political events in other nations and regions. The Fall of the USSR, the Color Revolutions, etc. We know this because they spoke about it publicly and the lessons learned were embedded into Party School learning materials. However, there is no further need to study because China’s officials have mastered autocracy. Really, they have. They have created a nearly perfect one-party state. It is a marvel to behold how they control the narrative, manage information, diffuse possible flashpoints with little or no violence, and give and take deftly with the populace. How they managed the White Paper protests and knowing “when to fold the cards” on the COVID lockdowns are good examples. Depending on how you measure, in all human history, there is likely not a better “one-party state” than today’s China. It is well known that China offers classes in autocracy to developing, or Global South, nations in the BRI orbit. Needless, Bangladesh’s now-resigned prime minister Sheik Hasina would have failed the class. She did well--she was in power for 20 of the last 30 years—but the more autocratic she became, the more tenuous her ability to lead. She was stuck hanging between democracy and autocracy and did not have the “whole package” of things that autocrats need to pull it off, especially with such grace as China. Of course, autocracy is not the best form of human governance and staying in power is not really a good performance metric (peaceful transition of power is, because it means people believe in the system, not the person). Autocracy is simply contradictory to the human spirit. Successful nations find ways to balance individual freedoms and rights with justice, fairness, transparency, and truth. They have enough flex to manage divergent views and opinions, all while maintaining stability and moving the nation forward. Let’s hope this is the next chapter for Bangladesh. --- China Peace Initiative (CPI) was created to explain and educate, toward understanding, hoping for peace. CPI's mission is to seek the evolution of China into a vibrant and prosperous nation where all have liberty to pursue wisdom and faith, and which chooses the path of peace. www.cpi-heping.org

Mr. Hu Xijin has been an outspoken, aggressive defender of everything related to the Chinese government for many years. Chief Editor of the Global Times from 2005 to 2017, before that an international correspondent for People’s Daily, and since “retiring” he has continued to post his views on social media nearly every day to more than 25 million followers. Except last week, he went silent. No, he is not missing or feared dead (like Qin Gang) but his social media accounts seem to have been locked up, dormant. What happened? He has always spewed Communist Party of China true believer stuff but last week it got him in trouble because it contradicted a direction that the government wanted to go. The tussle is about tensions between state and private ownership that came out in the Third Plenum documents, whether the government prefers one or the other or treats them equally, and about the direction of the economy. The government wants to have its cake and eat it too on this by leaving the question hanging so that it can define it as it wants. In not so many words, Mr. Hu was calling the government out for not being “red enough.” As Chairman Mao’s opponents learned in the Cultural Revolution, Chairman Xi’s in the crackdown on corruption, and Hu Jintao at the last Party Congress, Mr. Hu has now also learned that with a political system like China’s, you mostly, eventually, get whacked, no matter how careful you are or how much you love your country. China needs political evolution, perhaps Mr. Hu could now imagine a new tomorrow where his and other views are all allowed. --- China Peace Initiative (CPI) was created to explain and educate, toward understanding, hoping for peace. CPI's mission is to seek the evolution of China into a vibrant and prosperous nation where all have liberty to pursue wisdom and faith, and which chooses the path of peace. www.cpi-heping.org

When former president Donald Trump chose JD Vance as his running mate for the coming election in November, Bloomberg ran a headline quoting Vance as saying, “I Don’t Like China.” This is an unfortunate statement, there are many reasons to love the Chinese people and many of us do. The article went on to report on Vance’s public positions about how the US military should focus on China and America should exclude China from its financial system. Dislike of China is worth looking at the reasons. 1) China is growing militarily and flexing its might. Yes, the West should maintain its strength and embrace the competition. 2) China steals technology. Yes, people keep letting them. 3) China has an unlevel playing field. Yes, companies keep investing there. 4) China is flooding the world with cheap goods because of its subsidies and overcapacity. Yes, nations keep importing goods. 5) Chinese swimmers cheated on drug tests. Maybe, but WADA let them. For most of the dislike, the pointing finger just points back, except for one thing: the Chinese people have never experienced freedom of existence and are governed by a regime that uses every method, trick and technology masterfully to never let them experience it. The regime is so good at this, that most Chinese people are not even aware, do not even contemplate, what they are missing. They know--feel deeply--that “something” is missing, but they can’t quite put their finger on it. This is a very good reason to dislike China. --- China Peace Initiative (CPI) was created to explain and educate, toward understanding, hoping for peace. CPI's mission is to seek the evolution of China into a vibrant and prosperous nation where all have liberty to pursue wisdom and faith, and which chooses the path of peace. www.cpi-heping.org

People ask: why does China have to be so difficult? Why counter the West at every turn? Why snuggle up with Russia, even though Putin is a criminal? Why not trust the West to do the right thing, which it mostly tries to do? One answer is Guantanamo. After 9/11, the US did some bad things. Things that made the world’s “beacon of hope” dim. Black sites, torture, suspension of due process, dumping suspects in a dark hole in Guantanamo for years on end. Why did America stoop? One answer is to try to prevent another attack, but another answer is because of politics. No political party or leader could appear soft in the face of so many innocent dead Americans. Rules were suspended and almost anything was allowed to happen. This is one reason why China builds its military, wants a buffer in the South and East China seas, and is trying to create a parallel world order. China fears that the US would one day take offense at something, politics would enflame, and all of America’s high ideals would be out the window. The anti-dote to this is strength, and China swears to never be weak again. Guantanamo was brought to the surface this week. Even two decades after the 9/11 attack, and even after a sincere effort to re-establish legal processes, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stepped in to revoke plea agreements reached with 9/11 detainees. The truth is that there is likely no way to re-establish legal processes for these individuals. On the one hand, it says something that 1) the US did not execute them long ago, 2) that people have free speech to point out the injustice and hypocrisy, 3) that some Guantanamo detainees have been able to prove themselves innocent and were released, 4) that the documentation and evidence still exist to argue the cases. China would not do that. Nor Russia. But on the other hand, what happens now? What does a just nation do with a criminal who confessed but because of torture? --- China Peace Initiative (CPI) was created to explain and educate, toward understanding, hoping for peace. CPI's mission is to seek the evolution of China into a vibrant and prosperous nation where all have liberty to pursue wisdom and faith, and which chooses the path of peace. www.cpi-heping.org