Confluence Investment Management

And that's a wrap on our 4th Asset Allocation CIMposium! Financial advisors, research professionals, and investment consultants had an insightful day diving deep into how our Adaptive Asset Allocation can be utilized within client portfolios. A special thanks to our incredible financial advisor panelists for sharing their best practices with their peers, and our keynote speaker Jim Bullard for his perspectives on the current trajectory of monetary policy in the US. #CIMposium #AssetAllocation #ETFs

Is a strong US dollar good or bad for investors? We are often asked about our outlook for the US dollar, but we find that most people are actually more concerned about purchasing power and inflation. In this geopolitical report + podcast, Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses prospects for the dollar in a fracturing world and explains the process we use to measure the strength of the US dollar, providing some guideposts for thinking about exchange rates. Read the report: https://lnkd.in/g--RGsQN Listen to the podcast: https://lnkd.in/gQUjs6Yt

Activist vs. Accommodative Treasury Issuance: One of the challenges for fixed income investors is figuring out what part of the yield curve is most attractive and carries the least risk. Some market observers who worry about overstimulation of the economy are pointing an accusatory finger at the US Treasury. In this week's report + podcast, Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash unravels the various points of view and explains the debate over whether the Fed and Treasury should coordinate their policies. Read the report: https://lnkd.in/gxCKFAAN Listen to the podcast: https://lnkd.in/dqA8cdX

In the recent Iranian presidential elections, a reformist/moderate candidate came out on top. In a country ruled by a highly conservative theocracy with a political system dominated by hardline, right-wing parties, how did this happen, and what does it mean for the rest of the world? Will it inspire changes in Iranian domestic politics or foreign policy? Finally, how will it affect the US, and what does it mean for investors? Read our most recent geopolitical report: https://lnkd.in/gRxtKJvu

For more than a decade, Confluence has been discussing the ways in which US voters have grown reluctant to shouldering the costs of global hegemony. More recently, we've examined how the resulting geopolitical tensions have led to a global fracturing into geopolitical and economic blocs, which will have big implications for investors. To gauge their impact, we've developed an objective, quantitative method to predict which bloc each country will adhere to in the coming years, and this week Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez updates his analysis. Read the report: https://lnkd.in/gjJwzsTU

A tilt to the right in European politics has markets taking notice. Voters recently cast ballots for the European Parliament and saw right-wing populists significantly increase their strength. We examine the implications of the election results at the EU level and within key EU countries, along with investment ramifications. Read the report: https://lnkd.in/grz8sBWd Listen to the podcast episode: https://lnkd.in/gQUjs6Yt

The Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook: Uncertainty Reigns. This week, the Confluence macro team updates the geopolitical outlook for the remainder of the year with a focus on the "big picture" conditions that will dominate the international landscape. Some concepts will be familiar to our regular readers and listeners, but a key theme throughout is how chaos and unpredictability have become entrenched as the post-Cold War era of globalization gives way to a new period of Great Power competition. Read the report: https://lnkd.in/gq_2NDAs Listen to the podcast: https://lnkd.in/gQUjs6Yt

Copper, Gold, Treasurys, and the New World: Early 2023 served as a stark reminder that correlations can break down when least expected. An apparent change in the relationship between the copper/gold ratio and 10-year Treasury yields has underscored the challenge of relying too heavily on old assumptions. In our recent Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly, we delve into the dynamics between the copper/gold ratio and 10-year yields and explore whether this historical connection has been permanently severed. Read the report: https://lnkd.in/epQ9mN8J Listen to the podcast: https://lnkd.in/dqA8cdX

Geopolitical developments often end up becoming another point of US-Chinese friction, but the question is whether these tensions will escalate into greater conflict, possibly even outright war. A storm is currently brewing in the South China Sea that might make this an area of great risk – a local dispute between the Philippines and China that holds the potential to engulf the region or even spill into the world beyond. Read the report: https://lnkd.in/gqYGsvCD Listen to the podcast: https://lnkd.in/gQUjs6Yt

Four years after the sudden outbreak of COVID-19, we examine how the pandemic changed the US labor supply, focusing on two key developments that we would argue essentially amount to a labor market reform — perhaps the most significant in decades. In this geopolitical report, we discuss the implications of these changes on US economic growth and investments in the coming years. Read the report: https://lnkd.in/gJpGq5iF