DAE Wealth Management

"Off the Cuff" - Markets had a sense of calm today after a wild news/geopolitical day yesterday. This despite a forthcoming response by Israel after Iran's missile attack yesterday. Trading was helped by a better-than-expected private payroll number from ADP that was out this morning. The Nasdaq was up 0.08%, the S&P gained a fraction at 0.01%, the Dow closed higher by 0.09%, and the Russell was off by 0.09%. The VIX fell by nearly 2% to 18.90. Oil rose another 1 ½ % to $71.01 after Israel vowed a "painful" response to Iran. Yields were nearly unchanged at 3.78% on the 10-year. Four of the eleven major sectors finished higher today. Those sub-sectors outperforming to the upside today were Rare Earth Metals, Semiconductors, Online Retail, Clean Energy, Software, Energy Infrastructure, Video Gaming, Natural Resources, Travel, Robotics, Blockchain, Cybersecurity, and several more up 0.10-0.25%. Economic figures to watch tomorrow are August factory orders and weekly jobless claims all leading up to the important jobs report on Friday. *** FYI Wednesday will be the last "Off the Cuff" market note until Friday the 18th. If you have any questions about what is happening between now and then, please don't hesitate to send me an email. As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me. Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news. 

"Off the Cuff" - Markets were headed for a lower open to start Q4 after the long shoreman strike began at midnight affecting up to 60% of all goods that come into the country. Every one day of the strike equals about 7 days back log created. If it's a short-term strike, it'll be fine, but a prolonged one would be a real problem. Then the manufacturing data that came out before the open was once again weak. On top of all that, mid-morning Iran launched the anticipated missile attack on Israel. Oddly, the markets rallied significantly about an hour after the strike only to fade a bit again into the close, but well off the worst levels of the day. The Nasdaq finished down 1.53%, the S&P was lower by 0.93%, the Dow lost 0.41%, and the Russell fell 1.48%. As you might expect, the VIX spiked 15% to 19.26, but it to was off the worst level of the day. Oil was up roughly 4% on the missile strike and continued tough rhetoric and the potential for a supply disruption from Iran. The dollar strengthened and yields were down with the geopolitical tension. The yield on the 10-year Treasury closed at 3.73%. Just three major sectors finished up on the day. Those sub-sectors outperforming to the upside today were Natural Resources, Defense, Energy Infrastructure, Metals/Mining, Rare Earth Metals, Online Retail, and Specialty Real Estate. One earnings report of note after the close is from Nike. The rest of the week doesn't present much in the way of important earnings. Economically, we'll get housing data to digest in the morning followed by a couple of Fed speakers later in the trading day. *** FYI Wednesday will be the last "Off the Cuff" market note until Friday the 18th. If you have any questions about what is happening between now and then, please don't hesitate to send me an email. As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me. Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news. 

"Off the Cuff" - Markets started flat on the last trading day of the month and the 3rd quarter. This despite more stimulous being announced in China. Markets briefly gyrated while Fed Chair Powell was speaking today in New York when he said, "the Fed wouldn't be aggressive in lowering rates, but instead take a measured approach and continue to monitor the data". After a brief dip lower, markets rallied in the last hour or so of trading to end the month and quarter higher. The Nasdaq finished up 0.38%, the S&P gained 0.42%, the Dow edged up 0.04%, and the Russell 2000 advanced 0.24%. The VIX fell over 1 1/4 % to 16.73. Oil was flat on the day despite the headline that hit mid-morning that Israel announced a ground offensive will begin at any time into Lebanon. Yields were also flat on the day. For the month, the Nasdaq notched a gain of 2.7%, the S&P was up 2% and had its first positive September in 5 years, the Dow gained 1.9%, while the Russell small cap index was up 0.38 in the month. One of the other big news items of the day is that DIRECTV is buying Dish and saving them from bankruptcy. Nine of the eleven major sectors finished in the green today. Cybersecurity and Specialty Real Estate were two sub-sectors that outperformed today while most others fell in line with the overall major averages. Tomorrow's trading day to start off the 4th quarter will be dictated by the September ISM manufacturing index and the August JOLTS job opening number for the private sector. One earnings report of note before the open is from Paychex. One More Thing - October is historically the most volatile month, including declines of- 22% and -17% in 1987 and 2008, respectively. However, it’s seen 5% monthly gains (13 times) more than twice as often as 5% declines (5 times) dating back to 1950. As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me. Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news. 

"Off the Cuff" - The markets were off to a very good start this morning after the PCE inflation data showed another drop in inflation and an increase in income. A very "goldilocks" data point. The final consumer sentiment figure for September was also better than expected. Markets were moving swiftly higher and then the report hit of an Israel attack on Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon. Markets immediately drifted to near lows of the day before clawing back some of the gains into the close. It was the Russell small cap index that led the way today up 0.67%, the Dow was higher by 0.33%, while the S&P and the Nasdaq slipped 0.13 and 0.39% respectively. The VIX jumped up 10% to 16.96 on the Israel attack. Oil rose nearly 1 ½ % on the increased fighting in the Middle East. Yields fell after the inflation data this morning to 3.75% on the 10-year Treasury. The major averages were higher for the third straight week. The Nasdaq gained 1% this week while the S&P and Dow were up a little over a 1/2 %. Six of the eleven major sectors finished in the green today. Those sub-sectors outperforming today were Clean Energy, Rare Earth Metals, Travel, Homebuilders, Online Retail, Natural Resources, Defense, and many more up 0.25-0.70%. There are no earnings of note Monday morning. We are less than two weeks away from the start of an important Q4 earnings season. There is also no economic data of note out on Monday. As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me. Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news. 

Elections and Markets As we approach the 2024 election, many investors are understandably anxious about how political shifts might impact the stock market.   However, history tells a different story. Look at this chart from YCharts and see how the market has navigated past presidencies:   👉 Long-Term Trend: Historical data shows that the stock market has generally trended upward over time, regardless of which party holds the presidency.   👉 Company Growth: Many successful companies were founded and flourished under various administrations, contributing to overall market growth.   👉 Market Priorities: Factors like earnings growth, economic trends, and technological innovations typically influence the market more than political shifts.   👉 Investor Focus: Remember, when you invest in the stock market, you're investing based on your time horizon, risk tolerance, and specific goals—not specific political outcomes.   While elections may create short-term fluctuations, historical trends suggest that long-term market performance is often driven by broader economic factors. Stay focused on your investment strategy, and let history guide your decisions.   #Election2024 #MarketTrends #InvestingPerspective   Stocks are measured by the Standard & Poor's 500 Composite Index, an unmanaged index considered representative of the overall U.S. stock market. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. Stock price returns and principal values will fluctuate as market conditions change. Shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost.   Sources: 1. Chart https://lnkd.in/giQk5qUX

"Offt the Cuff" - Today's move higher was propelled by Micron's earnings report yesterday afternoon showing strong demand going forward for memory in the Ai space, followed by China announcing more stimulus overnight, and then this morning's weekly jobless claims confirming a still strong jobs market. The Nasdaq gained 0.60%, the S&P was up 0.40%, the Dow advanced 0.62%, and the Russell small cap index climbed 0.57%. Interest rate and economic sensitive areas led the gains. The VIX was down a ¼ %. Oil fell another 3% to $67.46 after Saudi Arabia mentioned they are committed to production increases. Yields were fractionally higher. The material sector continued its uptrend on the back of the China stimulus. Seven of the eleven major sectors were higher today. Those sub-sectors outperforming today were Rare Earth Metals, Metals/Mining, Online Retail, Travel, Blockchain, Clean Energy, Semiconductors, Robotics, Internet of Things, Metaverse, Ai, Infrastructure, Cloud, and many more up 0.25-0.75%. The one earnings report of note this afternoon is from Costco. There are no noteworthy earnings tomorrow. Economically, THE figure to watch tomorrow is the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the PCE, as well as the September Michigan consumer sentiment number. As always, if you have any questions regarding the information in this email, please don't hesitate to contact me. Content curated and written daily by Douglas Emitte Follow me on LinkedIn for "Off the Cuff" and other important news. 

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