Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

In a speech delivered at Washington and Lee University last week, President Tom Barkin shared his perspective on the economic outlook amid elevated uncertainty. Read his full remarks: https://bit.ly/3XD80ut

From tariffs and inflation to monetary policy and labor availability, this quarter's CFO Survey offers a window into the top concerns shaping the financial outlook of businesses. In the latest survey results, economic optimism fell from 66.0 in the fourth quarter to 62.1 in the first quarter of 2025, almost erasing gains from a post-election jump in the fourth quarter. Nearly a third of responding firms cited trade policy or tariffs as a top concern this quarter—a sharp increase from the previous quarter. And for the first time, “uncertainty” entered the top five list of concerns. At the Richmond Fed, part of our public service mission is to strengthen the economy. By partnering with Duke University - The Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, we ensure business leader's perspectives are part of the broader economic conversation. Explore the latest insights: https://bit.ly/4kZwrMV

As a regional Reserve Bank, we conduct research to support policymaking and thought leadership on issues important to the Federal Reserve and the Fifth District, which includes D.C. We also inform the public through our publications, such as Regional Matters. One topic we've explored recently is the extent to which our District’s economy relies on the federal government. Understanding this requires examining the scope of federal spending in the region. Though we cannot fully gauge the impact of potential spending cuts until we know which programs and agencies will be affected, this Regional Matters post looks at where federal spending occurs in our District and which areas might be more impacted: https://bit.ly/4irK1qB

At the heart of our mission as a regional Reserve Bank is the pursuit of economic stability and maximum employment, and community colleges play a vital role in providing unique educational opportunities that prepare our workforce to meet the needs of our communities. The Survey of Community College Outcomes (SCCO) is a tool we have developed to better measure the way community colleges are serving their students and communities. For example, data from our 2024 SCCO shows that Pell Grant recipients have a 40% success rate in community colleges, compared to 53% for non-Pell students. The gap is mainly seen the number of students transferring to four-year schools prior to award attainment. While Pell students face more challenges, persistence rates are similar between both groups. This highlights the importance of support services to help these students succeed. Read more about the findings and their implications for community college success in this article from economist and director of our Community College Initiative, Laura Ullrich: https://bit.ly/4hufMy0

Quality, affordable early care and education serves a dual purpose. First, quality child care enables parents to work outside the home — an option that may be important both to families and, in a tight labor market, to the economy as a whole. Second, research shows that early education and a high-quality environment contribute to a child's success in kindergarten, which is a predictor of future achievement in school and ultimately in the workforce. While the benefits of early childhood education are well known, factors such as cost and shortage of child care workers still present obstacles. Read more in this article authored by Sonya Waddell from Econ Focus: https://bit.ly/4ihW0Hg

The Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States. It performs five key functions that serve all Americans and promote the health and stability of the U.S. economy and financial system. To learn more about who we are, visit: https://bit.ly/3YGX1kW

In the latest episode of Speaking of the Economy, Richmond Fed Senior Payments Business Advisor Vanity McDaniel and PaymentsFirst EVP of Marketing and Membership Jennifer Stadler discuss the latest trends shaping the U.S. payments landscape. From contactless payments and digital wallets to the rise of "buy now, pay later" options, instant payments and the role of AI, they explore how evolving technology is transforming the way we pay. Tune into the full conversation: https://bit.ly/3Fmeec5

Registration is now open for the 2025 Investing in Rural America Conference! Join us May 20-21 at the Hotel Roanoke in Roanoke, Virginia for two days of learning, networking and collaboration. This year's theme, Elevating What Works, will highlight strategies to better leverage local assets and create opportunities for rural residents and communities to thrive. One of our two mandates from Congress is maximum employment, and we are committed to understanding the factors that impact labor force participation and economic growth. This is especially important in small towns and rural communities, which make up nearly a quarter of the Fifth District and often lag in these economic outcomes. By engaging with these communities, we can better understand their unique challenges and identify ways to support them. Take a look at moments from last year's event, and don't miss your chance to be a part of the conversation! Reserve your spot today: https://lnkd.in/eZPTpj4s #InvestRuralUSA

One concern raised by Fifth District businesses in our recent surveys is the potential for additional import tariffs. A Virginia industrial equipment supplier shared, "The threat of tariffs on imports could increase our raw material costs and the costs of good that we wholesale." What does that mean for consumers? Higher costs for businesses could lead to higher prices for goods and services. Learn more about how businesses in the Fifth District are reacting to the potential for tariffs in this Regional Matters post: https://bit.ly/4aKYPNX

What do businesses expect for their own prospects and the economy as a whole in the year ahead? Richmond Fed Regional Executive Renee Haltom and Vice President Sonya Waddell share what they’ve heard in recent surveys and conversations with contacts, including concerns about inflation and the labor market. Listen to the episode: https://bit.ly/4k3fEYG