John H Elton Inc.

On Friday, we released our October 25th market report. See the summary below and reach out to info@jhelton.com if you are interested in receiving the full report. Pepper Indonesia has had good quantities available this season but their shippers prefer to sell to Vietnam; payments come faster than from the U.S. with the shorter voyage and it is less risky importing there - limited sterilization capacity curtails U.S. opportunities as well. Perhaps those offers triggered sharper quotes out of Brazil at the end of the week, as they have lost some market share. Vietnam itself has been slighter softer, but most shippers continue to report fundamental factors that underpin resistance for much decline in the face of limited demand. Other Spices We still await new crop Guatemlan CARDAMOM quotes. Brazil's more aggressive CLOVE offers perhaps underly some sharper prices from MCZ sellers. With limited demand Indian CUMIN prices declined in their exchanges to an earlier resistance level; if this does not trigger demand it can ease more depending on how the current sowing season progresses. India also reports some sharp declines in plantings of FENNEL. China is offering new crop GINGER at good levels. MUSTARD offers had been heading south but recent harvest yields have now caused some concern. The Indian SESAME harvest will be smaller this season. Turkish OREGANO levels remain firm. 

On Friday, we released our October 11th market report. See the summary below and reach out to info@jhelton.com if you are interested in receiving the full report. Pepper Freight rates from Brazil are advancing as they decline in Vietnam, while their FOB prices are in similar ranges. Also in Vietnam, stockists continue to convert physical pepper inventory to cash in order to replace it with coffee. Considering the prevalant dire predictions about the coming crop buyers are trying to assess if some aggressive offers represent a short term opportunity, a view supported by the fact that few origin sellers will make forward sales. Also critical in the equation is whether the very limited recent Chinese demand will pick up as their economy struggles. Other Spices A wage settlement was reached by the ILA and Maritime Alliance; but there are further issues about automation to address and the strike could return Jan 15th if those matters are not resolved before that time. It is difficult to source anything overseas and have it arrive prior to then, yet some cautious buyers are trying to get that done. Norway continues to be more competitive with its new crop CARAWAY then Canada, and the resulting interest has stabilized their offers. The Cardamom Farmer’s Association in Guatemala has issued an ominous report as the crop is on the horizon predicting a harvest of 15-20,000 tons. Indian CELERY eased, but there is breaking news from India of very low sowing and some shippers withdrew. Brazil has quantities of new crop CLOVES to sell; they have been absent from the market for some time. ONION has been active. Egypt now offers their new PARSLEY crop to ship in a few months. Mexico's PIMENTO offers have eased a little. 

On Friday, we released our September 27th market report. See the summary below and reach out to info@jhelton.com if you are interested in receiving the full report. Pepper There was a rush of interest in the middle of this month and a sharp advance. But buying interest eased and Brazil's offers have declined since then with their crop arrivals. Some Vietnam exporters looked to liquidate stocks to shift funds into coffee, but their market currently is in a fundamental short supply scenario until their new crop arrives, so most sellers eased only to reflect lower freight rates that are now available. Other Spices If the ILA does not reach agreement with the U.S. Maritime Alliance, Ltd. by Oct 1, the U.S. will have its first East Coast strike since 1977; 14 ports will be impacted representing 56% of containerized imports including New York, Baltimore, Norfolk and Miami. The Biden administration could invoke the Taft-Hartley Act requiring work to continue as negotiations are ongoing, but so far they have said they do not want to intervene. Spot spice sellers are already cautious. Indian CELERY levels came down. Their exchanges are active in CUMIN; technical analysts say it has broken through resistance levels on the upside. Origin levels of Chinese GARLIC have eased, while there is good demand for spot U.S. inventory. Rains have impacted the Indian SESAME harvest, but levels are steady now. More competitive POPPY is on the horizon into U. S. ports which should ease the local market, but when will they get through?  

On Friday, we released our August 30th market report. See the summary below and reach out to info@jhelton.com if you are interested in receiving the full report. Pepper With limited activity there remains some uncertainty. But with our Labor Day weekend here the U. S. should get back to work next week; there should be some more activity and clarity. The intrepid Vietnamese sellers that had been willing to consider aggressive bids are now withdrawn so available offers from there are at a quite different level than just a few days ago. The quotes out of Brazil are also strong, but also with few takers. Indonesia has made some competitive offers but most U.S. buyers want sterilized product now and their treatment possibilities are limited. At week's close the bounceback from the earlier inertia seems clearly underway. Other Spices Unseasonal heavy rains in Gujarat, India are responsible for fatalities, transportation disruptions, and processing challenges; shipments likely will be delayed for a week or two. New crops there will be sown in the coming months and how this develops should be watched. Indonesia CLOVE sellers had been undercutting other origins but their offers have since corrected. U.S. buyers continue to search for competitive ONION offers. Mexico is now offering new crop OREGANO; heat and drought will make for challenges this year and offers are high. The Global Turmeric Conference in Bombay triggered bullish near term activity, despite the news that plantings for the coming season are solid.

On Friday, we released our August 16th market report. See the summary below and reach out to info@jhelton.com if you are interested in receiving the full report. Pepper The standoff continues. Brazilian offers are rare even as the Belem crop is coming in and Vietnam is monitoring the situation. The few U.S. buyers willing to step in are targeting aggressive levels, but with origin quantities limited most shippers are unwilling to accept those bids. Common wisdom is that when the absent players return - those on holiday and Chinese dealers are most commonly referenced - the limited stocks should trigger quick volatility. It is clear that there is coverage to be done - when interest resumes it should be substantial. It is an interesting moment. Other Spices ANNATTO offers remain limited and firm; Peru is not yet offering new crop and inventories from last season are being picked up quickly when offered. Finland is now cautiously selling new crop CARAWAY. The CARDAMOM market is drifting with limited activity despite underlying strong fundamentals. Egyptian DILL WEED will be available earlier in the last quarter because of the new farm initiatives. Turkish OREGANO prices are firm because of a reduction in production this season; Mexico is now offering new crop at strong levels. New crop PIMENTO is available and asking levels are widely varied from different sellers. There is still a long time before new Indian TURMERIC is harvested and buyers are extending coverage in light of thin inventories.

On Friday, we released our July 19th market report. See the summary below and reach out to info@jhelton.com if you are interested in receiving the full report. Pepper Vietnam's offers have drifted with few buyers in the market; reluctant sellers who had been unwilling to match more aggressive offers now are more willing to compete. Towards weeks' end Brazil is much more competitive, and there is more availability of steam sterilized product. Indonesia continues to undercut Vietnam on WHITE; China is taking advantage. Other Spices The Indian CHILLIE market has dropped over the past month, but the corresponding decline in pricing is offset largely by higher freight rates. Indian CUMIN quotes are range-bound at healthy levels; still no pressure from other harvests. Turkish LAUREL sellers for current crop LAUREL are rare and no one seems to be ready to offer the coming harvest. Their OREGANO market is also strong as a result of a substantial crop reduction, but buyers are absent also. We still only are aware of only one new crop PIMENTO seller with pricing 10% above the value of the few remaining stocks from last season. The early season strength of the Indian TURMERIC market has abated; there has been substantial sowing for the coming crop.

On Friday, we released our July 5th market report. See the summary below and reach out to info@jhelton.com if you are interested in receiving the full report. Pepper The market has been steady during the period in which the U.S. and other markets have had holidays and there has been limited activity. While some Vietnamese shippers are taking profits, many there instead are on the sidelines as available stocks are thin and the market can quickly accelerate if activity picks up soon. Yet if buyers continue to hold back there can be further drift. Brazil has not undercut the market despite a very weak Real. Other Spices We are seeing "Covidesque" rising freight costs, surpassing underlying market moves in overall cost fluctuations. With more of an imbalance on container availability in the Far East advances there exceeded those from other origins, but those costs now are correcting on the upside. The direction of the CARAWAY market remains uncertain as we approach new crops; a hand to mouth approach is appropriate as producers remain cautious to offer and it is a market that may move in either direction. Hurricane Beryl is heading to Central America and may impact the fall CARDAMOM crop; at the moment support continues at very high levels. China is the current main player in the GINGER market and their market is strong. Before Beryl we saw heightened activity for stocks of PIMENTO from the last harvest, and one intrepid seller quoting new crop above those prices - now we await to see the path of the storm and its consequences. 

On Friday, we released our June 21st market report. See the summary below and reach out to info@jhelton.com if you are interested in receiving the full report. Pepper In our last report we anticipated a "pause." Indeed there was a substantial correction as the strength had been too abrupt for the market to absorb. We then saw a bounce off the bottom and the market is now steadier as buyers have re-emerged. Our office saw limited sales during the dramatic surge. So the prices now are real. Since the start of 2024 markets have advanced about $4,000/T (more than doubling from the base); the move in the last month is about $2500/T. While we are at an inflection point, all indications are that this is a market in which filling in positions when there are "easier" periods is an appropriate strategy. Other Spices Freight rates continue to surge; the Red Sea situation, heavy volumes, limited availability of containers, weather conditions in Asia, are all factors. Indonesian CLOVE offers are quite competitive. Competitive CARAWAY offers are scarce. China has bought Indian CUMIN as their market has held steady lately while their harvest should happen in about a month. MUSTARD levels have eased; favorable crop conditions in Canada are pointing in a good direction. PIMENTO shippers remain cautious about offering new crop because of continuing heat and drought.  

On Friday, we released our June 7th market report. See the summary below and reach out to info@jhelton.com if you are interested in receiving the full report. Pepper It has been an extraordinary market, with offers surging at an unprecedented rate, and buyers frozen as the changes have been too fast. Little business is being finalized in recent days because of this, and our office also has seen a few "exceptional" offers discounting general market levels. Perhaps we will see a pause going into next week as some profit-taking happens. But strong fundamentals remain in place and most origin offers are firm - for those who offer... most will not. Expect further strength. Other Spices Chinese freights have surged, and anticipation there will soon be parallel increases in India have made shippers cautious about forward sales. There is increasing concern about end of the year CARDAMOM harvests. New crop CELERY prices drifted - despite some reports of disappointing production - to a level that has drawn strong demand. India has a good CHILLIE harvest. Canada has little large CORIANDER left and has just started quoting new crop at level's similar to Morocco which can ship their fresh product now. India's higher CUMIN levels are sticky as their internal market is resisting bearish sentiment; China's reluctance to sell new crop now is key. Indian DILL quantities are short and arrivals are slow. GINGER spot sellers are willing to take profits. MSG offers here are sharp. 

On Friday, we released our May 10th market report. See the summary below and reach out to info@jhelton.com if you are interested in receiving the full report. Pepper Vietnam eased a little earlier this week and has quickly rebounded above the earlier highs, as there is good demand for both current and forward shipments (which are available with a healthy premium). There was about a 5% local price increase for the week. There has been reporting about the floods in southern Brazil, but most pepper production there originates in the Victoria region which is actually going through an unusually dry period. Offers from there are very limited and prices have ascended more than happened in Vietnam during this time. Other Spices There are similar dynamics for CARDAMOM from India and Guatemala - both nearby markets are strong with limited local supplies available, and there are concerns about oncoming fall crops because of ominous weather developments. The Indian CUMIN market is defying gravity despite tea leaves pointing to an oversupply scenario a few months later (which are offered at a discount); buyers are booking quick shipments which are only available from there. Premium Indian FENNEL grades have stabilized as during the last leg of rains in Rajasthan some quantity of it was damaged; lower grades are in good supply. Chinese GARLIC offers easd as concerns about the coming crop have abated. Russian drought and resulting restrictions on exports may impact the MUSTARD market. TURMERIC has advanced further in India, but some argue this will soon be capped as competitive origins have good harvests just starting to become available at competitive levels.