MA Capital Management

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CRYPTO SUMMARY - September 2024 bucked the historically dismal September seasonality effect on Crypto. The massive rally across the crypto tokens seems to have been primarily led by the supportive attitudes towards crypto by both Trump and Harris. - Inflows into ETFs (Bitcoin and Ethereum) continue as both assets reach a combined market cap of $1.5 trillion. (Charts inside) MACRO SUMMARY - Over the past 100 days, WTI delivered volatility has risen sharply, while the other assets have stayed unchanged or dropped (Gold, US 10yr, Bitcoin) -Over the same period, equity indices have delivered the best average 22d rolling IR with Gold accelerating recently (Charts inside) #bitcoin, #cryptocurrency, #china, #macro, #machinelearning, #asiapacific, #rates, #fxtrading, #oil, #gold, #dataanalytics, #ai, #hedgefunds, #trading, #markets, #strategy

CRYPTO HEADLINES -$1.01 Billion Crypto Investment: In July, the total fundraising amount reached $1.01 billion, marking a 26.5% increase from June. Iris Energy raised $413 million through stock offerings, and Block Mining secured a $92.5 million M&A deal -Ethereum ETF Approval: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the first-ever spot Ethereum (ETH) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in July, although it didn’t have the bullish impact investors hoped for -Crypto Hacks: In July 2024, the crypto ecosystem lost $266 million across 16 attacks. WazirX (India's bigest crypto exchange) was the largest victim, losing $230 million to North Korean hackers -Bitcoin Surge: Following the failed assassination attempt of Donald Trump, Bitcoin prices surged to a two-week high, rising by 8.6% to reach $62,698. This boost was attributed to Trump’s status as a self-styled champion of cryptocurrency -Trump welcomed the title of “Crypto President” during a fundraiser in San Francisco, where he gained support from tech leaders like Tesla CEO Elon Musk. In contrast, President Biden advocated tighter crypto regulation. -Solana Memecoin TRUMP (MAGA): The Solana-based memecoin TRUMP (MAGA) surged 42% within minutes of the news breaking about the shooting incident GLOBAL MACRO HEADLINES - Global growth is projected to be in line with the April 2024 forecast, at 3.2 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2025. However, services inflation is complicating monetary policy normalization, and upside risks to inflation have increased due to escalating trade tensions and policy uncertainty - IMF #bitcoin, #cryptocurrency, #china, #macro, #machinelearning, #asiapacific, #rates, #fxtrading, #oil, #gold, #dataanalytics, #ai, #hedgefunds, #trading, #markets, #strategy

CRYPTO HEADLINES -Despite miners selling, to offset declining revenues from lower Hash Prices, Bitcoin has stayed rangebound as institutional flows increased to counterbalance -Bitcoin and Ethereum with a combined market cap of $1.66 trillion solidify their status as the fastest-growing stores of value in a world of inflating fiat currencies -Rising trading volumes, global ETF adoptions, and increasing Institutional exposure to crypto as a store of value. (Charts Inside) GLOBAL MACRO HEADLINES - In CBO's projections, the US deficit totals nearly $2 trillion this year. - Easing inflation data out of the US, UK and Japan in June - Dropping fertility rates in the top 15 economies poses longer-term threats to growth. 1950-2021 TFR dropped from 4.84 to 2.23. From 2050-2100 it is projected to go from 1.83 to 1.59. - CNBC MARKET SUMMARY 1. A risk-on month as the SP500 rose 3.47%. The CSI300 fell -3.30% as the two diverged this month. 2. An equally weighted crypto basket of BTC, ETH, ADA, XRP, BNB and SOL dropped -10.8% for the month. 3. No Asian rates went in the opposite direction to US 10yr rates. 4. The standout movers on the Rates side were KRW 10Yr -31.bps and AUD 10Yr -9.2bps. 5. The standout movers on the FX/Commodity side were EUR/$ -1.24% and OIL 5.64%. 6. The standout mover in Crypto was Binance -4.6%.   #bitcoin, #cryptocurrency, #china, #macro, #machinelearning, #asiapacific, #rates, #fxtrading, #oil, #gold, #dataanalytics, #ai, #hedgefunds, #trading, #markets, #strategy

MARKET SUMMARY 1. A risk-on month as the SP500 rose 4.80%. The CSI300 fell -0.68% as the two diverged this month. 2. An equally weighted crypto basket of BTC, ETH, ADA, XRP, BNB and SOL rose 13.8% for the month. 3. China 10Yr went in the opposite direction to US 10yr rates. 4. The standout movers on the Rates side were US 10Yr -18.1bps and China 10Yr 2.2bps. 5. The standout movers on the FX/Commodity side were OIL -5.41% and NZD/$ 4.38%. 6. The standout mover in Crypto was Solana 33.1%. MARKET FACTOR DRIVERS OF SIGNIFICANT DAILY MOVES (Same direction >=67% of the days for the month) 1. S&P 500    - Binance, Ripple, Ethereum, Bitcoin, GOLD. 2. CSI 300    - $/IDR. 3. US 10Yr    - EUR/$, AUD/$, NZD 10Yr, AUD 10Yr, $/IDR, GBP/$, $/SGD, $/CAD, $/THB, $/JPY, $/CNH, NZD/$. 4. EUR/$    - AUD/$, $/SGD, $/CAD, $/THB, NZD/$, US 10Yr, GBP/$, $/KRW, NZD 10Yr, $/IDR, $/CNH. 5. $/CNH    - $/JPY, EUR/JPY, $/IDR, $/SGD, $/THB, US 10Yr, EUR/$, $/KRW, AUD/$. GLOBAL MACRO HEADLINES --"The real GDP growth forecasts for 2024 have been revised up in some major economies. These include the eurozone and the UK, where the initial estimates for first-quarter real GDP growth surprised to the upside. Relatively muted growth rates are forecast for the eurozone and the UK in 2024 at 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively. The growth forecasts for mainland China and Russia also edged higher in May's forecast round. As a result, our global real GDP growth forecast for this year was raised slightly to 2.7% from 2.6%." - S&P Global -S&P Global projected global consumer price inflation at 4.8% for 2024, with upward revisions in the US offset by lower forecasts in mainland China and Brazil. CRYPTO HEADLINES -Robinhood Acquires Bitstamp: Stock-trading app Robinhood acquired global crypto exchange Bitstamp for $200 million, signaling its deeper entry into the cryptocurrency space1. - TechCrunch -Crypto Market Surge: The cryptocurrency market grew by 20% in May 2024, adding over $420 billion to its market capitalization. BitGet, a competing crypto exchange, overtook Binance amid bearish headwinds from ex-CEO Changpeng Zhao’s conviction. - Nasdaq #bitcoin, #cryptocurrency, #china, #macro,#machinelearning, #asiapacific, #rates, #fxtrading, #oil, #gold, #dataanalytics,#ai, #hedgefunds, #trading, #markets, #strategy

MARKET SUMMARY 1. A large risk-off month as the SP500 fell -4.16%. The CSI300 rose 2.37% as the two diverged this month. 2. An equally weighted crypto basket of BTC, ETH, ADA, XRP, BNB and SOL dropped -20.1% for the month. 3. The standout movers on the Rates side were China 10Yr 6.bps and AUD 10Yr 53.bps. 4. The standout movers on the FX/Commodity side were OIL -1.88% and $/JPY 4.0%. 5. The standout mover in Crypto was Binance -1.3%. MARKET FACTOR DRIVERS OF SIGNIFICANT DAILY MOVES (Same direction >=67% of the days for the month) 1. S&P 500      - China 10Yr, AUD/JPY. 2. US 10Yr      - $/CAD, $/TWD, GOLD, $/JPY, $/KRW, NZD/$. 3. EUR/$      - $/SGD, $/TWD, $/IDR, $/KRW, NZD/$, GBP/$, AUD/$. 4. $/CNH      - NZD/$, $/IDR, GBP/$, $/INR, AUD/$, $/SGD. GLOBAL MACRO HEADLINES - 3 STRIKES AND YOU ARE OUT was the theme of April. 3rd straight month of hot inflation data was too much for the market to sweep under the rug. - Large risk-off sentiment led to a drop in equities, bonds, crypto and sent money to the relative safety of dollar cash. - As of April 30, 2024, central banks have added 290 metric tons (10 months in a row) to their official holdings. - India's finance minister says that GDP is expected to grow by 8% or more in the first quarter of 2023/24, due to improved inflation management and macroeconomic stability. - Economic Times - March 2024, China's factory data was better than expected, which has increased optimism that the country can reach its growth target for the year. -US deficit stands at $1.064 trillion as of March and is on pace to run at $1.6 trillion for FY 2024. GDP is expected to increase by 2.5% from last year or $ 700 billion. -This implies a further shrinking of organic GDP in 2024 by $1 trillion. Since 2009, the US organic GDP has shrunk by $6.64 trillion.  -Money printing (deficits) will continue to power stores of value (stocks, crypto). CRYPTO HEADLINES -Bitcoin Spot ETF volumes increased but the net flows fell as the coin dropped 15.5% for the month. - Charts Inside -Blackrock and Fidelity ETFs saw the most inflows while Grayscale saw outflows. Fee differentials were the main contributing factor. -Despite falling 15% in April, Bitcoin still ranks 9th among the globally traded assets by AUM. -Asia continues to lead the exchange volumes over other centers by a factor of 10x-20x. -Coinbase in the US, Kraken in Europe, and Binance in Asia captured the highest traffic. -According to data compiled by Farside Investors, the three spot Bitcoin ETFs that launched on April 30 in Hong Kong have attracted a total of $262 million in assets under management (AUM), -Australian Securities Exchange Could Approve Spot-Bitcoin ETFs Before 2024-End: Bloomberg #bitcoin, #cryptocurrency, #china, #macro, #machinelearning, #asiapacific, #rates, #fxtrading, #oil, #gold, #dataanalytics, #ai, #hedgefunds, #trading, #markets, #strategy

Gary Smith proposes the Smith Test, a substitute for the Turing Test: “Present a computer program with a list of statistical correlations, some clearly plausible and others obviously coincidental, and ask the computer to label each as either meaningful or meaningless. When computer #algorithms can do as well as humans on such tests, they might be considered sufficiently competent to make reliable recommendations.”   “Consider this prompt: There is a correlation between the scores of 30 school children on a math test and the scores in 30 soccer matches. Is this statistical relationship most likely meaningful or coincidental?”   “A human would recognize it as inherently meaningless” because “the math scores of 30 individual students and the soccer scores in 30 team matches could not be anything other than coincidence.”   “GPT 3.5’s response: To determine whether the correlation between the math test scores and soccer match scores is meaningful or coincidental, we need more information about the context and the nature of the correlation.” And then provided meaningless details.   “Copilot gave a lengthy explanation of correlation coefficients and then gave this conclusion, which is the essence of the data-mining pitfall, misinterpreting statistical significance as causal evidence: If you find a significant positive or negative correlation between the math test scores and soccer match scores (with r values significantly different from 0), it suggests a meaningful relationship.”   “Gemini concluded that the relationship is most likely coincidental, but justified its conclusion with the assumption that math and soccer abilities require different skills: Coincidental is the most likely scenario. There is very little reason to believe that math test scores and soccer match scores would be meaningfully connected.”   Gary also “posed this question, whose answer is obvious:   “An Independent Party candidate is more likely to be elected President if the election year is evenly divisible by 4. Is this statistical relationship most likely meaningful or coincidental?”   “The statement is literally true because presidential elections are only held in years evenly divisible by 4. None of these LLMs recognized this obvious explanation for the observed statistical relationship. Instead, they regurgitated factoids in the databases they had trained on,” which are described in the article.   The superficial glibness of #LLMs is a wonderful example of the adage that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. Fortified by extensive training on untold amounts of text, LLMs can regurgitate and repackage superficially compelling answers they do not understand. They still cannot be trusted to give reliable advice or make decisions with important consequences,” and that will not change by the end of 2025.” #technology #innovation #startups #artificialintelligence #hype #ai https://lnkd.in/geF4jFpC

This has the potential for Oil to spike and stay elevated for a while. $120 to $150 target. Will fuel inflation and hit energy importing currencies hard! https://lnkd.in/e5CRCGHX

"The Fed did not have to print $9 trillion to give to the President to spend." - Siegel. Why is Jeremy Siegel blaming the Fed for fiscal policy ?? The Fed controls the monetary policy while the fiscal policy is controlled by the President and Congress. As for the debt issuance, that is done AFTER the spending to maintain interest rates and is NOT the precursor to spending in a fiat economy. 1:55min mark. https://lnkd.in/erEATvxr #CNBC, #monetarypolicy, #fiscalpolicy, #Wharton

Nasdaq drops while Fed Fund futures, Oil futures, and 10r futures rise. And Bitcoin which has been positively correlated to Nasdaq, actually rises. Smells like serious geo-political concerns and nothing to do with Fed speak or jobs number tomorrow. Going into the weekend, this move could be exacerbated on Friday!