Neo Network Development

https://lnkd.in/giW2fP_z Not long ago, CCI's Fiber and DAS business was valued at $15.2B or around 10X EBITDA so an $8B to $10B buy price based on operating EBITDA seems a bit low. Technology is constantly changing, the fiber is aging and small cell and ODAS business has lean, unpredictable and is unimaginably difficult to scale. In the early days of neutral host ODAS, a "build for one and the others will come " was the best and most cost effective way for CMRS operators to improve voice call quality along travel routes and canyons or maximize capacity and throughput for new entrants who were more spectrum limited. Long term contracts with automatic renewals made for sticky and durable recurring revenue streams. High barriers to entry and the sheer degree of difficulty deploying wirleless equipment and antennas in the right of way was alaways more art than science and made the neutral hosts an attractive PE investment. Even today, ODAS networks are viewed as a horizontal tower and are still valued as a multiple of discounted Tower Cash Flows. In a digital world with seamless roaming and Wi Fi offload, subscribers rarely know or care about the network they're connected to, as long as they connect. While a neutral host network allowed several operators to share the cost of the fiber, each still wanted to own, operate and control their own network. As advanced architectures (O-RAN, D-RAN, Cloud-RAN), software defined radios and Open Access Networks enable any IP enabled mobile device to connect to any wireless network, it's just a matter of time until the information super-highway becomes a toll road. Fiber and wireless networks will converge, unify and become one. Operators will become MVNOs and content providers, big tech and e-commere will metered and pay a toll. It may not happen overnight, but Open Access Fiber to Everything is happening because in the long run, sharing the cost and sharing the fiber makes perfect sense. Over time, it will be interesting to see how selling the fiber and DAS business and keeping the tower business works out for CCI and to learn how the new owners chose to put the fiber to work. No deal is done until the deal is done and there are still some major regulatory approvals and anti-trust obstacles ahead, especially for Digital Bridge, EQT and Zayo positioning to corner the market. With so many other FiberCos looking to exit soon, there will be plenty of inventory on the street that could drive exit values multiples even lower. No doubt that no matter who buys CCI, the 5G small cell business case is about to get worse as the price of dedicated dark fiber is about to go up.

https://lnkd.in/gAgJUshC In 2013, I founded Neo Network Development Inc. (a/k/a "Neo") knowing that every advanced and emerging Smart technology including 4G and 5G small cells were headed for the public and utility rights of way and 23,000 municipalities, investor owned, publicly owned, coop and rural electric utilities were about to become the largest vertical wireless infrastructure owner in America, they just didn't know it yet. Our Open Access Infrastructure program was developed after having spent two decades deploying wireless equipment and antennas on tens of thousands of poles in over 1,300 cities which was unimaginably difficult, costly and time consuming. Regardless if the tenant is a Smart City service provider, commercial wireless service provider or public sector agency, they all needed commercially reasonable rates and non-discriminatory access to poles and power, expedited permits and fiber (backhaul or fronthaul) and a way to track and manage millions of distributed assets. Fast forward to today. FCC orders and 26 US States that have adopted their Small Wireless Facilities Acts into State Law and yet there are still warehouses full of 5G small cells and Smart Technologies with no place to put it, no way to power it, not nearly enough accessible fiber to connect it and thousands of Cities and electric utilities that have no idea how to permit it or any software systems or tools track it. In light of the 5th Circuit decision deeming USAC and the Universal Service Fund Unconstitional, the Supreme Courts decisions on Cheveron and Loper-bright likely to drastically limit the authority of all regulating bodies (including the FCC) and lets not forget, this is an election year, even if the FCC were to revisit the matter and render a decision. it would still take years to codify through the courts. An army of lawyers and lobbiest are on the march once again, looking to line their pockets by pushing for even more regulation, Federal and State legislation but regulators and legislators only dictate policy that tells public agencies and utilities what to do without offering any funding, guidance or support that can be used to show them how to do it without any budget, expertise or resource to do it with. Our Open Access solution includes a rational siting policy, adoptable engineering and construction standards, an equipment dimension and volume based rate setting method and the software systems, resources and tools Public Agencies and Utilities need to track, manage and administer pole access, permits, power, fiber and ground space. Advanced technology and wireless service providers realize a fast time to market, predictable project schedules, lower capital cost and decreased operating expenses resulting improved success rates, timeline and budgetary certainty. Our Open Access program doesnt try to regulate or legislate the problem away, it solves it.