Onyx Strategic Insights

Companies are expecting an announcement about "Reciprocal Tariffs” in the near future. What does this exactly mean? In short, the US is looking to change the incentives of the international trading system by penalizing countries with high levels of regulation, subsidies, or other structures that could impact the ability of US companies to do business in those countries. Examples of these include consumption taxes, wage support, tariff-rate quotas, sanitary and phytosanitary measures, and any other policy that the Trump Administration believes is preventing US companies from accessing these markets. The imposition of tariffs on US imports thus aims to reach a level of reciprocity, as the administration sees it, but is calling for major changes in the regulatory structures of other economies. The tariff amounts range considerably depending on the country in question. We’ve found that very roughly these come out to a full burden reciprocal tariff of about 22% on average. This serves as a baseline, and it is possible that higher amounts or tiers may emerge. For support with monitoring these regulations and for support on strategic sourcing opportunities, reach out to our team to discuss your options. https://lnkd.in/g5aCcBmF

Onyx has two different webinar topics to offer in the month of March. Next up on March 20th is a session analyzing President Trump's "Fair and Reciprocal Plan", which targets trading arrangements where U.S. exports face higher tariffs and other barriers compared to imports from those countries. Then on March 27th come back to learn more about how Onyx and another professional services firm, Tradewin, approach monitoring and executing around trade regulations. Register for either/both options at the links below: - Mar 20, 8am Seattle / 3pm London - Register: https://lnkd.in/guZvYRmx - Mar 27, 8am Seattle / 3pm London - Register: https://lnkd.in/gfFmt6ff

With the renewed emphasis on raising import tariffs, it is driving corporations to assess their sourcing footprint and understand the impact. In addition, evaluating new sourcing geographies offers opportunities and also risks. These kinds of studies require not just a knowledge of costs, but also a deeper understanding of the stability, efficiency and reliability of key areas - such as infrastructure, geopolitics, and economics. If you are looking for support in studying potential new sourcing markets, reach out to our team to discuss: https://lnkd.in/g5aCcBmF

Recent US measures have raised tariff rates against Chinese goods entering the US, forcing multinational firms to further evaluate their China sourcing strategy. Amid this backdrop of an increasing cost pressures on sourcing from China for US imports, we asked our audience which ‘friendshoring’ location is their primary focus right now. Southeast Asia continues to stand out as a top choice. Countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand offer a number of advantages in terms of supplier availability and growing investment in infrastructure. These countries also face individual challenges and have specializations that create unique investment profiles.    To understand more about how Southeast Asia may fit into your company’s plans, we encourage you to visit our Vantage Point blog where we’ve published several pieces highlighting key areas of study. https://lnkd.in/gpsb7nEn

Adapting to Tariffs: Mexican Companies’ Strategies for Staying Competitive In response to the 25% tariff threat by the United States, Mexican companies are implementing various strategies to mitigate the economic impacts and maintain their competitive edge in the global market. Some of the most notable measures being adopted include: ☑️ DIVERSIFICATION OF MARKETS: Many companies are seeking to expand their market reach beyond the United States. By exploring opportunities in Europe, Asia, and Latin America, they aim to reduce dependency on a single market and distribute risks more evenly. ☑️ OPTIMIZATION AND AUTOMATION: Companies are working to enhance the efficiency of their production and logistics processes to lower operating costs. This includes identifying alternative suppliers, streamlining inventory management, implementing just-in-time production techniques, and investing in the automation of processes and digitalization of operations. These efforts increase efficiency, reduce overhead costs, and improve productivity. ☑️ GOVERNMENT ADVOCACY AND TRADE PARTNERSHIPS: Organizations like the Mexican Business Council are working closely with the government to advocate for favorable trade policies and to establish new trade partnerships. This collective effort aims to create a more stable and predictable business environment for Mexican companies. By implementing these strategies, Mexican companies are striving to maintain their resilience and competitiveness in the international market. 

Onyx has two different webinar topics to offer in the month of March. Next up on March 20th is a session analyzing President Trump's "Fair and Reciprocal Plan", which targets trading arrangements where U.S. exports face higher tariffs and other barriers compared to imports from those countries. Then on March 27th come back to learn more about how Onyx and another professional services firm, Tradewin, approach monitoring and executing around trade regulations. Register for either/both options at the links below: - Mar 20, 8am Seattle / 3pm London - Register: https://lnkd.in/guZvYRmx - Mar 27, 8am Seattle / 3pm London - Register: https://lnkd.in/gfFmt6ff

Today we're recognizing one of our great Onyx employees, Matthew McKenzie! Matthew is a Data Architect at Onyx, based in San Francisco, CA. He is responsible for designing and maintaining a scalable data infrastructure that quantifies the complex impacts of geopolitical and macroeconomic factors on supply chains. We asked Matthew what he finds most interesting about his work. He said, "What I find most fascinating about my work is leveraging my unique expertise in Supply Chain data to analyze and interpret global trends. The ability to identify patterns and insights on a macroeconomic and geopolitical scale is incredibly compelling. With numerous dynamic factors currently influencing global supply chains, the challenge of uncovering these elements, simulating their effects, and quantifying their impact is what truly drives my passion." We also asked Matthew for his advice on the essential skills for his job. He mentioned that supply chain data is incredibly complex, especially when combined with macroeconomic and geopolitical data from numerous providers. "The integration and interpretation of this data can be challenging and meticulous. Essential skills for my job include the ability to step back and gain a comprehensive understanding of the drivers behind supply chains, as well as the operational processes involved. This holistic perspective makes it easier to identify the necessary data and understand how it relates to a client's operational integrity, ultimately providing valuable insights." Outside of work, Matthew loves to disconnect from the digital world entirely. As a researcher at heart, he enjoys diving into new areas of interest, whether it's pursuing his Level 2 Sommelier certification or tackling home woodworking projects. When he needs a complete break, he's a serial day tripper, always exploring the beautiful landscapes and hidden gems of Northern and Central California. To learn more about careers at Onyx and submit your resume for future openings, visit our website: https://lnkd.in/g_vi8t3T

We have added another webinar for the month of March. With President Trump declaring that reciprocal tariffs will go into effect on April 2nd, our team will be analyzing the projected impacts across products and geographies. We will also cover how our team monitors regulations like this to communicate to our clients in advisory engagements. Registration is now open. All upcoming Onyx webinars are listed online: https://lnkd.in/gyK3ayrT

At the 2025 SCMP China Conference in Malaysia, Southeast Asian policymakers and analysts delved into the evolving dynamics of China's role in the region. They highlighted the dual challenges of attracting Chinese investment while managing the complexities of rising trade barriers and compliance issues due to the ongoing US-China trade war. With China's significant influence in the "New Three" industries—electric vehicles, batteries, and solar energy—there's a pressing need for policies that ensure tech transfer, workforce upskilling, and infrastructure development. However, the influx of Chinese investment has also raised concerns among multinationals about trade diversion and the intricate rules of origin determinations. As Western policymakers scrutinize the Chinese content in exports, Southeast Asian countries are increasingly looking to diversify their trading partners by pursuing free trade agreements with regions like the Gulf Cooperation Council, BRICS, and the Global South. This strategic shift aims to mitigate the risks associated with over-reliance on China amidst the US-China trade tensions. Read the full analysis on the Vantage Point blog: https://lnkd.in/dCyvfaB8

Chinese exports have surged in recent years to other regions, leading policy makers in the rest of the world to respond in a number of ways. Our team recently covered the surge of Chinese exports in a webinar. This material touches on both recent US and China actions but also the broader policy environment and includes discussion of the European Union and other areas of the world. https://lnkd.in/g8UXcJXr (PDF) The US has continued to take a rising protectionist stance to China, which has led more recently to the imposition of additional duties on Chinese origin goods. China initially showed a measured response to the tariffs with targeted export restrictions of critical minerals, some sectoral tariffs and listing additional companies on an unreliable entity list. This week, the US has raised the additional duty from 10% to 20% on Chinese origin goods imported to the US. As a result, the more restrained and surgical response we saw a month ago has opened up further with Beijing targeting an increasing number of areas.  Specifically, China is targeting food exports from the US to China and has put restrictions on a number of companies purchasing products from China.