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INTERNATIONAL COMMODITIES SYMPOSIUM We draw your attention to upcoming conferences with a nexus to commodities: https://lnkd.in/gMtgU7VH. In particular, the J.P. Morgan Center for Commodities & Energy Management at the University of Colorado Denver Business School will host the eighth annual International Commodities Symposium on Tuesday, August 12th and Wednesday, August 13th, 2025 in Denver, CO, USA: https://lnkd.in/grw3T_ys. The conference is being organized by Professor Jian Yang, and the call-for-papers deadline is March 15, 2025. [The photo below features CID contributor, Dr. Blu Putnam, presenting at a past J.P. Morgan Center symposium. The photo also includes CID co-editor, Hilary Till, who organized several practitioner panels at earlier symposia.] #commodities

TAPPING THE VALUE OF FUTURES DATA It was a privilege to present today at Griffith University in Brisbane on the topic of inferring commodity fundamentals from futures price data. I am grateful to Professor John Fan for the invitation to present at today’s external seminar at Griffith. Professor Fan is also an Editorial Board member of the Commodity Insights Digest (CID, ISSN 2996-654X): https://lnkd.in/gwzgnjuG. (The CID is a publication that I have the honor of co-editing with Bayes Business School Professor Ana-Maria Fuertes.) Today’s seminar in Brisbane also provided a wonderful opportunity to meet Professor Robert J. Bianchi in-person. Recently Drs. Bianchi and Fan co-authored a very insightful CID digest article with two other commodities researchers (Drs. Joelle Miffre and Tingxi (Riven) Zhang) on “Exploiting the Dynamics of Commodity Futures Curves.” That article is available here: https://lnkd.in/giYMvfNi. Regarding today’s external seminar, the presentation on “Tapping the Value of Futures Data” is available here: https://lnkd.in/gPVuKfuY. This presentation, in turn, draws from the following two recent Commodity Insights Digest (CID) articles: (1) “Tapping the Value of Futures Data” (co-authored with Joseph Eagleeye): https://lnkd.in/gZZ3Sa7R and (2) “Hedging Battery-Material Price Risk: The Case of Lithium Compounds”: https://lnkd.in/gcgFgHa3. (Interested parties can receive the biannual CID by subscribing at the following link: https://lnkd.in/gnTasf2n.) A previous version of the futures data article was included in Dr. Jenny Considine’s co-edited book, “A Research Agenda for Energy Politics”: https://lnkd.in/dhQMcJQ8. The photos from today’s hybrid seminar in Brisbane are shown below: On the LHS - Seminar Presenter: Honorary Senior Visiting Fellow at Bayes Business School, Hilary Till and On the RHS - Seminar Participants: Professor John Fan, Hilary Till, Professor Robert J. Bianchi, Professor Neda Todorova, and Ph.D. Scholar Sama Haddad. In conclusion, thank you to all the Griffith external seminar participants, who attended either in-person or virtually today! #commodities #forecasting

FORTHCOMING SUMMER 2025 ISSUE Thank you to Professor Christina Nikitopoulos of University of Technology Sydney for her innovative, co-authored article in the forthcoming Summer 2025 issue of Bayes Business School’s Commodity Insights Digest (CID, ISSN 2996-654X): https://lnkd.in/gpYdEcPS! Pictured from L-to-R in Sydney: Professor Nikitopoulos and CID Co-Editor, Hilary Till. #commodities #portfolio_management #risk_management

MARCH 2025 EDITION OF THE COMMODITY INSIGHTS DIGEST (CID) Welcome to the March 2025 edition of Bayes Business School's Commodity Insights Digest (CID, ISSN 2996-654X)! This issue includes articles on (a) Measuring the Incentive to Collude in LITHIUM; (b) Modeling Dominant Producer Priorities in CRITICAL MINERAL Models; (c) Mitigating AI Infrastructure Risks through Historical Lessons; (d) A Framework for Analyzing TARIFF Wars: The Complex Case of Commodities; and (e) Whispers in the OIL Market: Exploring Sentiment and Uncertainty Insights. The authors include Scott A. Pollan (Emergency Material Services); Reese Epper, Sito-Abasi Udoh (ACA), Jordan Kengue, Brad Handler, and Ian Lange (Colorado School of Mines); Jodie M. Gunzberg, CFA (InFi Strategies, LLC); Blu Putnam (Bayes Edge); and Luigi Gifuni (University of Strathclyde). The issue also includes a forthcoming presentation at Griffith University (Brisbane) by Hilary Till. This presentation is based on the co-authored Winter 2024 CID article, "Tapping the Value of Futures Data": https://lnkd.in/gfyDhz7T, which Till co-authored with CID Editorial Board member, Joseph Eagleeye. The Commodity Insights Digest is an academic publication, which is sponsored by Bayes Business School, City St. George's, University of London (U.K.). In addition, the digest is published in association with Chicago-based Premia Research LLC. The CID’s co-editors are Professor Ana-Maria Fuertes (https://lnkd.in/dpSH_DBs) and Honorary Senior Visiting Fellow Hilary Till (https://lnkd.in/gc7ckwtP). Complimentary subscriptions to the Commodity Insights Digest are available at: https://lnkd.in/gFdbk9Ze. [The graphic is from a digital recreation of Sir John Soane's Bank of England building, circa 1800: https://lnkd.in/gHMKAYyz.] #lithium #criticalminerals #ai #economic_history #oil #sentiment #forecasting #futures

INFERRING CRUDE OIL FUNDAMENTALS I am delighted to be presenting my co-authored article, "Tapping the Value of Futures Data," at Griffith University in Brisbane on Tuesday, March 4th. This article, in turn, is available here: https://lnkd.in/gZZ3Sa7R. I am grateful for the invitation from Dr. John Fan, Associate Professor in Finance, to provide an external seminar on this topic. Professor Fan is also an Editorial Board member of Bayes Business School (U.K.)'s Commodity Insights Digest (CID, ISSN 2996-654X): https://lnkd.in/grM5wQRH. The external seminar will mainly cover inferring crude-oil-market fundamentals through price-relationship data, largely through the perspective of a commodity futures trader. While the presentation will be in-person at Griffith University, one can also attend remotely via MS-Teams at the following link: https://lnkd.in/gz8jd7bm at 11am on Tuesday, March 4th in Brisbane (equivalently 7pm CT on Monday, March 3rd.) #crudeoil #futurescontracts #futurestrading #commodities

FINANCIAL BEHAVIOUR IN COMMODITY AND ENERGY MARKETS We draw your attention to the upcoming 18th International Behavioural Finance Conference to be held in London, 4-6 June 2025: https://lnkd.in/g55Q8--G. This year's theme is “Financial Behaviour in Commodity and Energy Markets.” As a reminder, the submission deadline is this Friday 21 February 2025. Submission is straightforward - prospective participants may email a PDF copy of their paper to info@behaviouralfinance.org.   The Call for Papers is below. For more information and to browse copies of previous programs, one may visit https://lnkd.in/g8SWrzek. The conference organizers from the Behavioural Finance Working Group are (1) Professor Arman Eshraghi, Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University / Prifysgol Caerdydd and Editor, International Review of Economics & Finance; (2) Professor Gulnur Muradoglu, College of Business and Management, University of Illinois Springfield and Editor, Review of Behavioral Finance; and (3) Professor Ana-Maria Fuertes, Bayes Business School, City St George's, University of London and Editor, Commodity Insights Digest (CID). #commodities #energies #behaviouralfinance #finance

DOMINANT PRODUCER PRIORITIES IN CRITICAL MINERALS In the forthcoming March 2025 issue of the Commodity Insights Digest (CID, ISSN 2996-654X), we are delighted to include an article on "Modeling Dominant Producer Priorities in Critical Mineral Models." The article is available here: https://lnkd.in/gF96k37M. The article is by the following Colorado School of Mines' researchers: Reese Epper, Sito-Abasi Udoh (ACA), Jordan Kengue, Brad Handler, and Ian Lange. The authors explore the "economic behavioral modeling of a dominant critical mineral producer seeking to manage a market primarily for long-term market dominance and other strategic objectives as opposed to (nearer-term) profit. This perspective shifts the focus from classical market analysis to one that considers geopolitical leverage, strategic stockpiling, and influence over global supply chains as drivers of market behavior." Relatedly, the Commodity Insights Digest published a Special Report this month on LITHIUM, which is available here: https://lnkd.in/g3qffVvj. The Commodity Insights Digest is an academic publication, which is sponsored by Bayes Business School, City St. George's, University of London (U.K.). In addition, the digest is published in association with Chicago-based Premia Research LLC. The CID’s co-editors are Professor Ana-Maria Fuertes (https://lnkd.in/dpSH_DBs) and Honorary Senior Visiting Fellow Hilary Till (https://lnkd.in/gc7ckwtP). Complimentary subscriptions for the CID are currently available at the following link: https://lnkd.in/gFdbk9Ze. #criticalminerals #mining

THE OIL MARKET: EXPLORING SENTIMENT AND UNCERTAINTY INSIGHTS In the forthcoming Summer 2025 issue of the Commodity Insights Digest (CID, ISSN 2996-654X), we are delighted to include an article on "Whispers in the Oil Market: Exploring Sentiment and Uncertainty Insights." The article is available here: https://lnkd.in/gCNRYEUy. The article is by Dr. Luigi Gifuni, Assistant Professor, University of Strathclyde. The author "develops a set of innovative text-based indices capturing oil market sentiment and oil price uncertainty. The textual analysis includes over 6 million news items spanning from January 1982 to June 2021.  The evidence shows that sentiment indicators readily react to economic and geopolitical events impacting oil prices, thereby enabling said indicators to accurately predict the price of oil.  In contrast, uncertainty measures have inherent weaknesses thus yielding unreliable oil price forecasts. This research results in a novel and robust text indicator that offers valuable insights into predicting the intricate dynamics of crude oil prices, particularly excelling in short-term forecasts and during periods of economic recessions." The Commodity Insights Digest is an academic publication, which is sponsored by Bayes Business School, City St. George's, University of London (U.K.), and which is published in association with Chicago-based Premia Research LLC. The CID’s co-editors are Professor Ana-Maria Fuertes (https://lnkd.in/dpSH_DBs) and Honorary Senior Visiting Fellow Hilary Till (https://lnkd.in/gc7ckwtP). Complimentary subscriptions for the CID are currently available at the following link: https://lnkd.in/gFdbk9Ze. #crudeoil #textmining #forecasting #geopolitics

FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYZING TARIFF WARS In the forthcoming Summer 2025 issue of the Commodity Insights Digest (CID, ISSN 2996-654X), we are delighted to include an article on "Framework for Analyzing Tariff Wars: The Complex Case of Commodities." The article is available here: https://lnkd.in/gEmdbWF5. The article is by Dr. Blu Putnam, Head of Research, Bayesian Edge and Adjunct Faculty for Business Analytics, University of Maryland Global Campus, U.S.A. Dr. Putnam is also the former Chief Economist of the CME Group. The author notes that "[t]he analysis of the impact of a tariff war on commodities is considerably more complex than one might anticipate. Changes in tariff policy by one country almost always set off retaliation by other countries, and responses are not limited to counter tariffs but can also involve regulations, export controls, and sanctions. Because global supply chains are so interconnected, there are third party impacts. Indeed, in many cases, both countries directly involved may be net losers while a third country may be a winner. In addition, when there are multiple major policy shifts underway simultaneously, the analysis quickly gets exponentially more complex. And with any analysis of large changes to complex systems, it is best to appreciate that there will be a transition period that is far from equilibrium and some considerable time may be required to find a new and sustainable equilibrium." The Commodity Insights Digest is an academic publication, which is sponsored by Bayes Business School, City St. George's, University of London (U.K.), and which is published in association with Chicago-based Premia Research LLC. The CID’s co-editors are Professor Ana-Maria Fuertes (https://lnkd.in/dpSH_DBs) and Honorary Senior Visiting Fellow Hilary Till (https://lnkd.in/gc7ckwtP). Complimentary subscriptions for the CID are currently available at the following link: https://lnkd.in/gFdbk9Ze. #tariffs #commodities #supplychain

LITHIUM: MEASURING THE INCENTIVE TO COLLUDE In the forthcoming March 2025 issue of the Commodity Insights Digest (CID, ISSN 2996-654X), we are delighted to include an article on "Lithium – Measuring the Incentive to Collude." The article is available here: https://lnkd.in/g-cCQgZK. The article is by Scott A. Pollan, President of Emergency Material Services. The author's "study analyzes the potential for collusion within the Lithium Carbonate Equivalent (LCE) market from 2013 to 2021, focusing on Argentina, Chile, and Australia. Lithium, a cornerstone of the renewable energy transition, is produced under oligopolistic market conditions.  Using a Cournot framework, this research evaluates deviations from Nash equilibrium production to assess profitability under collusive agreements.  ... Findings indicate that Chile and Argentina act as price takers, lacking economic leverage for profitable collusion due to Australia’s rapid production expansion post-2017.  The analysis reveals structural barriers to collusion, emphasizing the impact of production cost asymmetries and market competitiveness. ... This paper contributes to the understanding of collusive dynamics in resource markets, particularly in the context of the growing demand for critical minerals in renewable energy applications." Relatedly, the Commodity Insights Digest published a Special Report this month on LITHIUM, which is available here: https://lnkd.in/g3qffVvj. The Commodity Insights Digest is an academic publication, which is sponsored by Bayes Business School, City St. George's, University of London (U.K.). In addition, the digest is published in association with Chicago-based Premia Research LLC. The CID’s co-editors are Professor Ana-Maria Fuertes (https://lnkd.in/dpSH_DBs) and Honorary Senior Visiting Fellow Hilary Till (https://lnkd.in/gc7ckwtP). Complimentary subscriptions for the CID are currently available at the following link: https://lnkd.in/gFdbk9Ze. #lithium #renewable_energy #criticalminerals #mining #ev #electricvehicles #batteries #energytransition