Southeast Asia Public Policy Institute

Negotiators will gather in #Bali next week for the upcoming round of discussion on #DEFA - #ASEAN's Digital Economy Framework Agreement - an expansive digital trade agreement touching on almost every part of tech policy (yes, even #AI). While most people we've talked to are not overly optimistic about solid outcomes, perhaps DEFA is less important for what it does than what it represents - an attempt to transform the region into a global tech centre through better policy alignment. An agreement addressing 'easier' policy areas such as paperless trade may not solve the diverse views and sovereignty concerns across ASEAN on things like data policy, but it could set the scene for more ambitious 'mini-lateral' agreements between willing members such as those on cross-border payments. Our report 'Demystifying DEFA' looks at the political and policy drivers behind the agreement to help understand the positions ASEAN members are negotiating from and how they might affect the outcome. Read the full report here https://lnkd.in/e8Wkd92H

Earlier this month the #UN finalised a long, tough negotiation process on the UN Convention Against Cybercrime (https://lnkd.in/dgmEeubv). The process has been controversial on a number of levels with criticism from UN member states and global civil society about the overall scope and the inadvertent criminalisation of 'white hat' activities, too few or too many human rights references, weak child's rights protections, and the accusation that the text supports online snooping. However, the convention could also create the opportunity for a better coordinated response to transnational crime involving #fraud and #scams, which in Southeast Asia creates victims of both online fraud and the compounds that host the scam industrial complex. The text will be debated at the UN General Assembly in the coming months. If, in the meantime you are looking for a primer on the state of online fraud and scams policy in #southeastasia, you may be interested in our Policy State of Play: https://lnkd.in/e72id7fB

[5/6] Breaking down our regional analysis of #southeastasia's #renewables ambitions and the prospect of meeting hashtag #COP28 goals to triple global renewables capacity by #2030: #Singapore Singapore’s 2030 renewables capacity target stands at 2.3 GW, 2 GW of which is planned to come from solar. While ambitious, this is an achievable target if certain conditions are met. By 2028, the IEA projects Singapore to reach 1.8 GW capacity. With current growth trends and projections, Singapore is on track to reach almost 2.5 GW of capacity by 2030. This would meet its renewables ambitions of 2.3 GW but fall short of commitments to triple 2023 capacity to 3 GW by 2030. Meanwhile, its current renewables capacity stands at 1 GW and is comprised mostly by distributed solar photovoltaics (PV) systems and bioenergy. The share of renewable energy in its power generation is also forecast to grow from 5% in 2023 to 7% by 2028, with solar power being the main contributor. There has been minimal investment in renewable energy in Singapore in recent decades. As of 2020, solar energy only accounted for 0.08% of the country’s total energy consumption, while fossil fuels like oil and natural gas accounted for around 98%. The country’s small amount of land, coupled with low wind speeds and large ports that limit tidal energy, explain the lack of opportunities for renewables capacity expansion. In addition, Singapore imports renewable energy from its ASEAN neighbors, including Malaysia and Laos. Nevertheless, the country has robust renewables targets for the coming decades, driven by local solar energy production and clean energy imports. To respond to growing electricity demand, the government sees power generation coming through investments in RE in neighboring countries, depending on progress with energy integration in the region overall. The government plans to supply 30% of its energy needs with low-carbon imports by 2035. While around US$200 billion is needed to upgrade the region’s grid infrastructure by 2030, Singapore has the potential to lead the region’s collective efforts. All references to data available in the full post here: https://lnkd.in/ekw-frEF

[5/6] Breaking down our regional analysis of #southeastasia's #renewables ambitions and the prospect of meeting #COP28 goals to triple global renewables capacity by #2030: #Malaysia Malaysia has committed to increasing renewables composition to 70% of its total power generation capacity by 2050, a target which will require a more than tenfold increase in 2023 capacity. To achieve this ambitious goal, the government plans to expand renewable capacity from 6 to 14 GW by 2025 and to 18.5 GW by 2030 – tripling current capacity. However, according to current growth trends, Malaysia is falling short of its 2025 RE capacity goals and is projected to reach 13.5 GW of capacity in 2028 and 16.7 GW in 2030. This would fall short of both national ambitions and commitments to triple 2023 capacity by 2030 at around 18 GW. In line with its policy commitments, recent policies and developments can still reverse Malaysia’s trajectory and place it on track to meet its 2030, and 2040, goals. For one, the Ministry of Economy has announced the end of cross-border trade barriers for renewable energy. The government has also pledged to not approve any new coal-fired power generation plants. Additionally, to further grow its clean power industry and non-fossil power generation, Malaysia plans to lift the ban on RE exports implemented in October 2021. The Green Investment Tax Allowance grants companies subsidies for adopting RE, upgrading energy efficiency, constructing “green buildings” or undertaking integrated waste management projects. An estimated investment of MYR 637 billion (US$143 billion) will be required to carry out its net zero goals, which the government has said will be spent on grid infrastructure, energy storage systems, and network system operating costs. In the meantime, the government has allocated MYR 50 million (US$11.2 million) to install rooftop solar systems in government facilities across the country. All references to data available in the full post here: https://lnkd.in/ekw-frEF

With the EU AI Act coming into force at the beginning of this month, policymakers and regulators around the world are considering their own policy moves, including in Southeast Asia. As shown in the table below, leading digital markets in the region have established #AI strategies and roadmaps, reflecting their significant ambitions in this space, but have so far taken a 'wait-and-see' approach to regulation. This may not be the case for long. International engagement on global governance (Bletchley Park etc.) has been relatively limited, likely due to capacity constraints which also slowed early policy attempts in some markets. However, it will be important for leading digital economies in the region to form a coherent approach to ensure ASEAN makes the most of the opportunities AI has to offer. Read our full 'Policy State of Play' on #AI in Southeast Asia here: https://lnkd.in/ecFCZJ6S

[4/6] Breaking down our regional analysis of #southeastasia's #renewables ambitions and the prospect of meeting #COP28 goals to triple global renewables capacity by #2030: #Thailand Thailand has a total renewables capacity ambition of 24.3 GW by 2030. Its 2023 renewables capacity is estimated to be 13.7 GW, led by bioenergy and hydropower. The country is expected to add around 4.5 GW of renewables capacity between 2023 and 2028. Primarily driven by distributed PV applications, its 2028 renewables capacity will reach 17.6 GW. Under the current capacity growth trajectory, Thailand will likely have a capacity of 19.1 GW by 2030. This would fall short of both the renewables ambitions of 24.3 GW and a trajectory to triple 2023 capacity by 2030.   The country has announced several ambitious climate commitments and plans for increased renewables capacity deployment. At COP26, the Prime Minister pledged to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 and net zero emissions by 2065. The country’s Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP) aims for a 30% share of renewables in final energy consumption by 2037. Additionally, the Energy Regulatory Commission has introduced a new feed-in-tariff regime in force until 2030. The government also aims for 10 GW of rooftop PV capacity by 2037 with a deployment schedule of 100 MW annually until 2027 and another 1,000 MW afterwards. The government deems rooftop PV as economically attractive, and as such is expecting commercial and industrial electricity consumers to invest in the technology. More generally, renewable energy growth in the country is mostly motivated by fiscal incentives such as accelerated depreciation, import duty waivers, tax exemptions, and green bonds for RE projects. Meanwhile, the country’s share of renewable energy in power generation is forecast to remain constant at 18% between 2022 and 2028. If not for inadequate transmission infrastructure, high energy storage costs, high financing costs, and land and space limitations, among others, RE deployment in Thailand could be almost 50% higher than current forecast. All references to data available in the full post here: https://lnkd.in/ekw-frEF

Earlier this month the #UN finalised a long, tough negotiation process on the UN Convention Against Cybercrime (https://lnkd.in/dgmEeubv). The process has been controversial on a number of levels with criticism from UN member states and global civil society about the overall scope and the inadvertent criminalisation of 'white hat' activities, too few or too many human rights references, weak child's rights protections, and the accusation that the text supports online snooping. However, the convention could also create the opportunity for a better coordinated response to transnational crime involving #fraud and #scams, which in Southeast Asia creates victims of both online fraud and the compounds that host the scam industrial complex. The text will be debated at the UN General Assembly in the coming months. If, in the meantime you are looking for a primer on the state of online fraud and scams policy in #southeastasia, you may be interested in our Policy State of Play: https://lnkd.in/e72id7fB

[3/6] Breaking down our regional analysis of #southeastasia's #renewables ambitions and the prospect of meeting #COP28 goals to triple global renewables capacity by #2030: #Philippines The Philippines has an ambitious goal to increase its 2030 RE capacity by over triple its current amount, driven by the view that faster deployment of low-cost renewables could grant many other economic benefits. By 2030, it aims to reach 29.6 GW total renewables capacity, 3.3 times its 2023 capacity of 9.1 GW. Its renewables energy expansion between 2023 to 2028 is projected to amount to 9 GW, a fivefold increase from the previous five-year period. Yet, the country will likely fall short of its 2030 ambitions. In 2028, the country is expected to have a capacity of 17.1 GW, mostly accounted for by solar PV and wind, driven by the Green Energy Auction Program (GEAP). Our analysis shows that under current growth trends and projections, the Philippines will likely reach 21.5 GW capacity by 2030. This projected capacity is a notable increase from current figures but falls short of reaching the country’s 2030 ambition – 29.6 GW – and the aim to triple its 2023 capacity to 27.3 GW. In 2022, the government updated the National Renewable Energy Program (NREP) 2020-2040 to target 35% renewable energy in the generation mix by 2030 and 50% by 2040. The same year, the government allowed more foreign ownership of RE assets to increase investment and accelerate capacity deployment. The government also aims to double the geothermal share in RE capacity from 12% to 24% by 2040. In 2020, it introduced new mandates for utilities to increase their use of RE sources by 1% annually. Currently, the country’s share of RE in power generation is expected to increase from 23% in 2022 to 27% in 2028. Still, the country suffers from grid connection delays, high financing costs, complicated permitting processes, and inadequate transmission infrastructure. Renewables growth in the country could be 66% higher than the current predictions if the government addresses these challenges. All references to data available in the full post here: https://lnkd.in/ekw-frEF

2/6 Breaking down our regional analysis of #southeastasia's #renewables ambitions and the prospect of meeting #COP28 goals to triple global renewables capacity by #2030: #Indonesia Indonesia’s 2030 total renewables ambition stands at 44 GW, the second highest in the ASEAN region. This figure is slightly larger than triple its 2023 capacity, which was 13.4 GW. Between 2023 and 2028, the country is expected to increase its renewables capacity by 14 GW, more than four times the growth of the previous six years. Half of this growth will come from deployment of utility-scale PV and hydropower, in addition to 1.75 GW of geothermal power. The share of renewables in its power generation is also expected to reach 20% by 2028, a 1% increase from 2022. However, given that Indonesia’s RE capacity is forecast to reach only 26.1 GW by 2028, reaching its 2030 ambition will be a tall order. Our projections indicate that based on previous growth trends, Indonesia will only reach 32.9 GW of capacity by 2030. This would fall short of 2030 ambitions – 44 GW – and a tripling of its 2023 capacity – 40.2 GW. Meanwhile, the government has set ambitious climate targets to meet growing energy demand and reach zero emissions by 2060 or earlier. Policymakers are additionally discussing implementation details for Indonesia’s RE targets and supporting policies. Given the decreasing costs of renewable technology costs, the country is also expected to accelerate RE deployment in the next few years, especially for PV systems. Nonetheless, challenges limit Indonesia’s renewable capacity growth. Despite its major role in the energy transition, the power sector remains the largest contributor to the country’s emissions. The national utility PLN is still constrained by pre-existing contracts with coal- and gas-fueled power plants, all while highly optimistic expectations for electricity demand growth have resulted in overcapacity in the country’s power system. This means that at least in the largest regions (Java and Bali), there is little room for new RE until 2030. Further, the country’s policy and regulatory barriers pose additional challenges for swift capacity growth. Resolving these challenges would enable the country to at least double its forecast RE growth. Read the full post here: https://lnkd.in/ekw-frEF [References and bibliography see full post]

Breaking down our regional analysis of #southeastasia's #renewables ambitions and the prospect of meeting #COP28 goals to triple global renewables capacity by #2030: #Vietnam Vietnam will not triple its 2023 capacity by 2030, but it is important to note that Vietnam is at a disadvantage in this analysis following an explosion of solar development from 2017 to 2019. A tripling of renewables capacity between 2023 and 2030 would be more than 150 GW, almost double the total electricity generation capacity of the entire country in 2022. Based on figures before solar took off during this period – 17.2 GW – the country’s current 2030 ambition would easily be a tripling of their capacity pre-2017. The Vietnamese government views renewable energy as part of the solution to respond to growing electricity demand. The much anticipated and newly adopted National Electricity Development Plan includes renewable capacity targets for 2030 and assumes significant deployment of wind (24 GW) and hydropower (7 GW). Vietnam also signed a Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) agreement in 2023, which is expected to boost renewable energy growth. While Vietnam’s renewables capacity ambitions and progress are notable, the government still needs to increase transmission and distribution grid investments and provide new policy support, such as competitive auctions, to fill the gap since 2021, when the last feed-in tariff expired. Should these efforts be taken, Vietnam has the potential to add about 45% more capacity, according to an IEA accelerated case forecast. Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/ekw-frEF